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After a decisive win over the hapless Rockets the Cavs move on to Oklahoma City for the second night of a back-to-back on the road. The Thunder were off last night and have won 5 of their last 7. They are 23-25 overall and 14-10 at home.
These teams played in Cleveland on Dec. 10, with the Cavs winning 110-102, despite not having Mitchell and Love, which will probably be the same situation tonight. With three winnable home games starting Sunday I expect they will give Donovan two more days to try and get healthy.
Injuries could be a big factor in this game as the Thunder are missing 7’0” Alex Pokusevski, SF Luguentz Dort, and PF Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. All three of them started on Dec. 10 and combined for 27 points and 18 rebounds. Pokusevski and Robinson-Earl are listed as the starting and backup centers on their depth chart. Their third center is Mike Muscala, a 31-year-old journeyman. After Muscala it’s 6’9” forward Darius Bazley.
So the Thunder are short-handed on the front line. Muscala averages 5.7 points in 14 minutes per game. He’s 6’11” and shoots 37% on 3’s, however. He’s been in the league ten years for a reason.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is their superstar point guard, averaging 31/5/6. Over his last three games he’s scored 34-37 points. He’s shooting 51% overall and 36% on 3’s. In the first game the Cavs held him to 23 points and -17 when he was on the floor.
SG Josh Giddey, the 6’8” Aussie, has a line of 16/8/6 on 48% and 33%. Giddy was the 6th overall pick last year. Having starting guards that are 6’6” and 6’8” could cause a matchup problem for the Cavs.
Dort is their third leading scorer at 14.1 ppg and he is out. Jalen Williams, a 6’5” forward, averages 11.8 points on 51% shooting. He’s coming off a 24-point game. Reserve PG Isaiah Joe averages 8 points in 15 minutes and is hitting 45% of his 3’s. He had 12 points in 19 minutes in the first game.
In their 137-132 home loss to Atlanta two nights ago the Thunder had 11 players who played at least 11 minutes, despite two starters being out. Their coach doesn’t mind using his bench. SGA and Jalen Williams combined for 60 of their 132 points. The Thunder scored 77 points in the first half (but still lost) so the Cavs have to be ready to play.
The Thunder are a little below average in offensive efficiency (18th) but are 7th in points per game, mainly because they have the 5th fewest turnovers. They’re not great shooters (22nd in effective FG%), and they’re average at fast break points and 3-point percentage. They don’t get to the line much (25th in free throw attempts). They much prefer to attack the rim (3rd in points in the paint and 6th in shot attempts at the rim). However, they are last in accuracy at the rim. In this respect the Cavs would seem to match up well because the Cavs defend the paint very well (2nd) and the Thunder relentlessly attack the rim but are not good finishers.
They don’t run too many plays, ranking 22nd in assists. They seem to be a team that likes to just get a favorable matchup and attack the rim off the dribble. But they’re not good finishers and they don’t get fouled much. They’re 22nd in putback points per missed field goal.
The Cavs held them to 102 in Cleveland and three of the Thunder players who started that game are out. If Okoro and LeVert can do a decent job defending SGA the Cavs have a chance to hold the Thunder to 102 again (although they did score 132 two nights ago).
Defensively the Thunder are 10th in efficiency and 9th in effective FG%, so they do a solid job of forcing missed shots. However, they are 20th in scoring defense because they allow so many second chance points. They are last in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage. The Cavs got 12 offensive rebounds in the first game.
With their top two centers out it’s likely they’ll be even worse than usual at defensive rebounding. Pokusevski had 14 rebounds in the first game, not to mention 16 points, 5 assists, and 3 blocked shots. I was very impressed, not having seen him before. Him being out tonight could be huge, especially since the Thunder is already the worst team in the league at defensive rebounding.
The Thunder rank 22nd in opponents’ points in the paint and with their leading shot blocker out they’re definitely lower than that. The Cavs should go inside to their bigs all night long. The Thunder also rank 25th in opponents’ free throw attempts so it’s clear they hack a lot. They rank 9th in steals so they seem to play a gambling style of defense where they go for steals but also end up fouling. The Cavs need to be aware and avoid sloppy ball handling.
All in all I think the Cavs match up well against this team, especially with three of their starters out. I have some concerns, though. Isaiah Joe leads the team in plus/minus - the Thunder are outscoring opponents by 19.5 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor. He’s shooting 45% from deep and was 3-for-6 against the Cavs in the first game on 3’s. He's had three games this season where he's made seven 3-point shots. He can light you up from outside.
Muscala is third at +12.6 while Pokusevski is last at -18.7 (in 673 minutes). It’s not a small sample - Pokusevski is killing them. Between him and Muscala it’s a 70-win difference! So maybe him being out tonight helps them. Sometimes it’s better to have a 10-year vet on the floor who just makes the smart play. Pokusevski is just 21, so they are probably playing him ahead of Muscala for developmental reasons, but the numbers say they are way, way better with Muscala. Pokusevski’s injury might be to the Cavs disadvantage tonight, but the Thunder still don’t have another true center available.
Keys to the game:
1. Attack the rim and get the ball to the bigs. Force them to foul inside - especially Muscala who is not a leaper.
2. Exploit the league's worst defensive rebounding team for second chance points.
3. Avoid turnovers.
4. Keep SGA from going ballistic, or at least contain the rest of them. (We won a game last month where Giannis had 45 but the entire team scored only 106).
These teams played in Cleveland on Dec. 10, with the Cavs winning 110-102, despite not having Mitchell and Love, which will probably be the same situation tonight. With three winnable home games starting Sunday I expect they will give Donovan two more days to try and get healthy.
Injuries could be a big factor in this game as the Thunder are missing 7’0” Alex Pokusevski, SF Luguentz Dort, and PF Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. All three of them started on Dec. 10 and combined for 27 points and 18 rebounds. Pokusevski and Robinson-Earl are listed as the starting and backup centers on their depth chart. Their third center is Mike Muscala, a 31-year-old journeyman. After Muscala it’s 6’9” forward Darius Bazley.
So the Thunder are short-handed on the front line. Muscala averages 5.7 points in 14 minutes per game. He’s 6’11” and shoots 37% on 3’s, however. He’s been in the league ten years for a reason.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is their superstar point guard, averaging 31/5/6. Over his last three games he’s scored 34-37 points. He’s shooting 51% overall and 36% on 3’s. In the first game the Cavs held him to 23 points and -17 when he was on the floor.
SG Josh Giddey, the 6’8” Aussie, has a line of 16/8/6 on 48% and 33%. Giddy was the 6th overall pick last year. Having starting guards that are 6’6” and 6’8” could cause a matchup problem for the Cavs.
Dort is their third leading scorer at 14.1 ppg and he is out. Jalen Williams, a 6’5” forward, averages 11.8 points on 51% shooting. He’s coming off a 24-point game. Reserve PG Isaiah Joe averages 8 points in 15 minutes and is hitting 45% of his 3’s. He had 12 points in 19 minutes in the first game.
In their 137-132 home loss to Atlanta two nights ago the Thunder had 11 players who played at least 11 minutes, despite two starters being out. Their coach doesn’t mind using his bench. SGA and Jalen Williams combined for 60 of their 132 points. The Thunder scored 77 points in the first half (but still lost) so the Cavs have to be ready to play.
The Thunder are a little below average in offensive efficiency (18th) but are 7th in points per game, mainly because they have the 5th fewest turnovers. They’re not great shooters (22nd in effective FG%), and they’re average at fast break points and 3-point percentage. They don’t get to the line much (25th in free throw attempts). They much prefer to attack the rim (3rd in points in the paint and 6th in shot attempts at the rim). However, they are last in accuracy at the rim. In this respect the Cavs would seem to match up well because the Cavs defend the paint very well (2nd) and the Thunder relentlessly attack the rim but are not good finishers.
They don’t run too many plays, ranking 22nd in assists. They seem to be a team that likes to just get a favorable matchup and attack the rim off the dribble. But they’re not good finishers and they don’t get fouled much. They’re 22nd in putback points per missed field goal.
The Cavs held them to 102 in Cleveland and three of the Thunder players who started that game are out. If Okoro and LeVert can do a decent job defending SGA the Cavs have a chance to hold the Thunder to 102 again (although they did score 132 two nights ago).
Defensively the Thunder are 10th in efficiency and 9th in effective FG%, so they do a solid job of forcing missed shots. However, they are 20th in scoring defense because they allow so many second chance points. They are last in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage. The Cavs got 12 offensive rebounds in the first game.
With their top two centers out it’s likely they’ll be even worse than usual at defensive rebounding. Pokusevski had 14 rebounds in the first game, not to mention 16 points, 5 assists, and 3 blocked shots. I was very impressed, not having seen him before. Him being out tonight could be huge, especially since the Thunder is already the worst team in the league at defensive rebounding.
The Thunder rank 22nd in opponents’ points in the paint and with their leading shot blocker out they’re definitely lower than that. The Cavs should go inside to their bigs all night long. The Thunder also rank 25th in opponents’ free throw attempts so it’s clear they hack a lot. They rank 9th in steals so they seem to play a gambling style of defense where they go for steals but also end up fouling. The Cavs need to be aware and avoid sloppy ball handling.
All in all I think the Cavs match up well against this team, especially with three of their starters out. I have some concerns, though. Isaiah Joe leads the team in plus/minus - the Thunder are outscoring opponents by 19.5 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor. He’s shooting 45% from deep and was 3-for-6 against the Cavs in the first game on 3’s. He's had three games this season where he's made seven 3-point shots. He can light you up from outside.
Muscala is third at +12.6 while Pokusevski is last at -18.7 (in 673 minutes). It’s not a small sample - Pokusevski is killing them. Between him and Muscala it’s a 70-win difference! So maybe him being out tonight helps them. Sometimes it’s better to have a 10-year vet on the floor who just makes the smart play. Pokusevski is just 21, so they are probably playing him ahead of Muscala for developmental reasons, but the numbers say they are way, way better with Muscala. Pokusevski’s injury might be to the Cavs disadvantage tonight, but the Thunder still don’t have another true center available.
Keys to the game:
1. Attack the rim and get the ball to the bigs. Force them to foul inside - especially Muscala who is not a leaper.
2. Exploit the league's worst defensive rebounding team for second chance points.
3. Avoid turnovers.
4. Keep SGA from going ballistic, or at least contain the rest of them. (We won a game last month where Giannis had 45 but the entire team scored only 106).
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