You can't take today's roster and carry it forward 2.5 years and have a contender. The NBA isn't about collecting the most slightly above average role players on short term contracts. It's about getting 4-5 really good players locked up on long contracts, nailing a free agent signing or trade, and then finding a handful of affordable role players that round out the team. It's really hard to get the role players before you know who the core is going to be.
First and foremost, the Cavs are going to try really hard to stay far enough under cap to be able to sign a 10 year vet free agent in 2014. Unless the Cavs trade Varejao for expiring contracts or waive Gee, they won't have enough cap room to sign a 10 year max free agent, sign their draft picks, and keep Miles, Ellington & Speights at their current pay rates. And I have a strong feeling that those guys are not content with their current salaries. Somethings going to happen there and I don't think it is waive Gee or trade Varejao for expiring contracts.
So let's see. Varejao? The Cavs will want a player and a pick for him. I don't think you can just erase him from the balance sheet. They'll be a contract coming back if he's traded. If they can find a good trade for him. They are not going to bundle picks with Varejao to get his contract off the books.
Speights? Think Sessions 2.0. I don't see any scenario where he is here next year. Most likely, he's most likely gone in February. If he's here in June for some reason, there are two things that can happen. He could opt out, and that's hasta la vista. The Cavs are not going to pay to keep him. If he opts in, he gets traded. He's not here next October either. He wants a payday and the Cavs can't afford to give him one even if they thought he deserved it.
Miles? He's the 2013 version of Tractor Traylor, only less likable. Traded if they can, but most likely waived. His contract isn't guaranteed. The Cavs want to win next year. They need someone who encourages Waiters to take good shots, not someone who challenges him to a game of HORSE. No way he's here in 2015.
Ellington? Maybe Gee 2.0. Might be here if he agrees to a really affordable, not fully guaranteed year deal to replace Miles. The trouble is that he's not a restricted free agent this summer (Memphis declined his option). Would Gee be here if he wasn't restricted last summer? Odds are that the Cavs draft that position or find someone else who meets their financial constraints.
And let's not stop there. Look at the recent draft picks. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one of Thompson, Waiters, or Zeller traded in the next two years. If the Cavs think that one of these guys isn't going to be part of the future, trades will happen before the assets lose all value.
So let's look at this again next year in the spring of 2014. The team's going to be very different by then. And even, that's only going to be a fraction of the roster changes that we'll see before October 2014. Exciting stuff on the horizon.