How good is Bieber?

[CATS44]

IMO, using ERA+ is the best way to compare pitchers of different eras.

I've identified 16 Cleveland pitchers as the best this franchise has had, beginning with Cy Young. Others are certainly free to debate which ones they would choose. I used a minimum of 100 starts for Cleveland.

Here they are, based upon ERA+ they put up while with this franchise:

*Adie Joss..................143
*Cy Young (Spiders)...138
*Cy Young (Naps).......106
Bieber..........................137
*Gaylord Perry.............134
Kluber...........................134
*Stan Covaleski...........129
*Bert Blyleven..............136
*Bob Feller...................122
Sonny Seibert..............122
Luis Tiant.....................120
*Bob Lemon.................119
*Early Wynn..................119
Sam McDowell.............119
CC Sabathia..................115
Carlos Carrasco...........114
Mel Harder....................113

*HOF

Now, this doesn't mean that Biebs will end up being a HOFer, but it does show that he has been over his five years just about as good as any pitcher Cleveland has ever had.

It also illustrates how good our pitching has been over the last decade...one of three eras of outstanding Cleveland starting pitching.

(Kluber-Cookie-Bieber)

(Feller-Lemon-Wynn)

(McDowell-Tiant-Siebert)

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

IMO, using ERA+ is the best way to compare pitchers of different eras.

I've identified 16 Cleveland pitchers as the best this franchise has had, beginning with Cy Young. Others are certainly free to debate which ones they would choose. I used a minimum of 100 starts for Cleveland.

Here they are, based upon ERA+ they put up while with this franchise:

*Adie Joss..................143
*Cy Young (Spiders)...138
*Cy Young (Naps).......106
Bieber..........................137
*Gaylord Perry.............134
Kluber...........................134
*Stan Covaleski...........129
*Bert Blyleven..............136
*Bob Feller...................122
Sonny Seibert..............122
Luis Tiant.....................120
*Bob Lemon.................119
*Early Wynn..................119
Sam McDowell.............119
CC Sabathia..................115
Carlos Carrasco...........114
Mel Harder....................113

*HOF

Now, this doesn't mean that Biebs will end up being a HOFer, but it does show that he has been over his five years just about as good as any pitcher Cleveland has ever had.

It also illustrates how good our pitching has been over the last decade...one of three eras of outstanding Cleveland starting pitching.

(Kluber-Cookie-Bieber)

(Feller-Lemon-Wynn)

(McDowell-Tiant-Siebert)

Doesn't ERA+ specifically avoid anything that translates across eras?

I thought it just compares you to the other pitchers that year.

 

[Stark]

Doesn't ERA+ specifically avoid anything that translates across eras?

I thought it just compares you to the other pitchers that year.

It does, it's just like OPS+.

Career ERA+ just compares your ERA to your competition relative to your career. I think it's great for year to year but not as great as a cumulative stat.

 

[CATS44]

ERA+ measures production against the competition of that era.

It seems obvious that you can't compare Verlander's (maybe the best pitcher of this era) career ERA of 3.25 to Joss' 1.89, and say Joss was that much better.

In 1908, arguably Joss' best season, AL teams averaged about 3.4 runs...almost exactly what Detroit is averaging this year, and they are the worst in MLB.

The highest scoring AL team in 1908...by a large margin...was Detroit, which averaged about 4.1 runs. The second best offense averaged about 3.63. Only four MLB teams are worse than that this year.

ERA+ offers context to ERA.

In 1991 Dennis Martinez led the NL with a 2.35 ERA with an ERA+ of 153. He was 53% better than the average pitcher.

In 1995 his ERA with Cleveland was 3.08, .73 points higher. Was he worse? No. His ERA+ was 152.

The biggest difference? He was pitching in the AL with a DH.

 

[CATS44]

OPS+ does much the same for hitters.

Manny Being Manny had a career OPS of .996 and an OPS+ of 154.

Honus Wagner had a career OPS of .858....138 points lower. Was Manny that much better than Wagner? Hardly. Different era. Wagners OPS+ was 151.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Just mentioning that those numbers are for each pitcher's entire career. Generally pitchers continue pitching into their 30's and their effectiveness decreases, which brings their career average down. For example, in Feller's last two years at age 36-37 he was 4-8 with a 4.14 ERA. He also missed ages 23-25 to military service.

Joss died at 31. If he continued pitching until he was 37 his career OPS+ would probably be lower.

Feller had nine seasons with over 240 innings pitched and would have had 12 if not for the war. He had five years over 290 innings and three years over 300 innings. Bieber has had one year over 200 innings (214) and this year he's at 195.

Feller had 279 complete games in his career. One year he had 36 complete games. It was a different era - they didn't believe in relief pitchers, which probably inflated ERA's and batting averages. At age 27 Bieber has four complete games. If he had to throw 8-9 innings every time out his ERA+ would be a lot lower.

Bieber and Kluber are great pitchers but they were never asked to do what the old timers did. In nine seasons Joss had 234 complete games.

 

[Derek]

Shane Bieber is so good that he’s going to pitch 200 innings, strike out 200 guys, and have a sub-3.00 ERA with the lowest walk rate of his career while fans spent the whole season asking what was wrong with him.

 

[Alabuckeye]

Shane Bieber is so good that he’s going to pitch 200 innings, strike out 200 guys, and have a sub-3.00 ERA with the lowest walk rate of his career while fans spent the whole season asking what was wrong with him.

I’ll confess, his Season numbers snuck up on me. I was surprised yesterday when I looked him up and saw the likelihood of 200/200.

I was a huge fan of Corey K….so I’ve always had Shane a half step below him, but these numbers tell an interesting tale.

 

[buzzdog]

I'd say he's still pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty, good.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Shane Bieber is so good that he’s going to pitch 200 innings, strike out 200 guys, and have a sub-3.00 ERA with the lowest walk rate of his career while fans spent the whole season asking what was wrong with him.

bUt BiMbO sAiD!

 

[CATS44]

Just mentioning that those numbers are for each pitcher's entire career. Generally pitchers continue pitching into their 30's and their effectiveness decreases, which brings their career average down. For example, in Feller's last two years at age 36-37 he was 4-8 with a 4.14 ERA. He also missed ages 23-25 to military service.

Joss died at 31. If he continued pitching until he was 37 his career OPS+ would probably be lower.

Feller had nine seasons with over 240 innings pitched and would have had 12 if not for the war. He had five years over 290 innings and three years over 300 innings. Bieber has had one year over 200 innings (214) and this year he's at 195.

Feller had 279 complete games in his career. One year he had 36 complete games. It was a different era - they didn't believe in relief pitchers, which probably inflated ERA's and batting averages. At age 27 Bieber has four complete games. If he had to throw 8-9 innings every time out his ERA+ would be a lot lower.

Bieber and Kluber are great pitchers but they were never asked to do what the old timers did. In nine seasons Joss had 234 complete games.

I never meant to suggest that Bieber was the equal to Feller. I specifically said that what Biebs has done so far doesn't mean that he was headed to the HOF.

But Biebers five seasons so far ranks favorably to just about any five year stretch this franchise has seen, when you factor in the respective eras they played in.

Fellers best five year stretch...two years before and three years after WW2....his ERA+ was 141.

Joss.............151
Kluber..........151
Lemon..........122
Wynn............126
McDowell. ...127
Siebert..........122
Tiant.............127
Coveleski.....135
Young...........138
Harder..........137
Sabathia.......122
Carrasco......133

Biebers 137 ranks right up there.

IMO these numbers point to two things...

1) We don't appreciate what we are seeing in Bieber.

2) We really don't appreciate what we had in Kluber in his prime.

 

[avs2000]

I’ll confess, his Season numbers snuck up on me. I was surprised yesterday when I looked him up and saw the likelihood of 200/200.

I was a huge fan of Corey K….so I’ve always had Shane a half step below him, but these numbers tell an interesting tale.

surprised me as well But still think I want to commit huge dollars for him to extend. I do not see him giving the discount that Jose did. Like almost all players he will to maximize his next contract and the tribe will not pay that kind of money.

Will be interesting to see what happens with him

 

[cliffdawg]

Shane Bieber is so good that he’s going to pitch 200 innings, strike out 200 guys, and have a sub-3.00 ERA with the lowest walk rate of his career while fans spent the whole season asking what was wrong with him.

What’s funny, if you ask him privately I’m sure he was reading the Gun also, even the Cleveland Announcers even mentioned that in yesterday game how everyone was wondering about his stuff including them……

Just because a game plan is put together , until you see the results I’m sure there’s small doubts, even with the pitchers …….and sometimes they don’t work out, fortunately it work out almost perfect for us,…..Even know we’re going to have a full spring training next year, wouldn’t surprise me if we do something similar again ,maybe not as long .

 

[Gson]

Shane Bieber is so good that he’s going to pitch 200 innings, strike out 200 guys, and have a sub-3.00 ERA with the lowest walk rate of his career while fans spent the whole season asking what was wrong with him.

Thought this might be appropriate as a comment on Bieber:

Link: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-9-27-22-14028.html

John Kreese
11:37
Which pitcher would bring back a bigger haul if traded this Winter, Bieber or Burnes?

Steve Adams
11:39
Burnes, pretty comfortably. No knock on Bieber, who's a damn good pitcher in his own right, but he's had some velocity loss and doesn't have the raw power arsenal of Burnes. Bieber has the better ERA, and Burnes has faltered down the stretch in Milwaukee, but he's still more in demand this winter I think (assuming both are healthy)

Clearly.. someone's falling apart !!

NOT