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How good were the Cavs this year, really?
They won 44 games, but it seemed like some of their wins against the strongest opponents were “tainted” due to those teams’ top players being out with injuries or COVID. So I decided to take a look. Here are 13 wins against quality opponents that I consider to be “suspect”.
Nov. 5 Toronto 102-101. No Pascal Siakam, who averaged 22.8 point and 8.5 rebounds
Nov. 13 Boston 91-89. No Jaylen Brown, 26.9 ppg
Dec. 1 Miami 111-85. No Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo, their two best players
Dec. 8 Chicago 115-92. No DeMar DeRozan or Coby White
Dec. 13 Miami 105-94. Still no Butler or Adebayo
Dec. 18 Milwaukee 119-90. No Giannis, Middleton, Holiday, or Portis
Dec. 26 Toronto 144-99. The entire starting lineup was out with COVID
Jan. 12 Utah 111-91. No Rudy Gobert, Rudy Gay, or Hassan Whiteside (both centers were out)
Jan. 17 Brooklyn 114-107. No Kevin Durant
Jan. 31 New Orleans 93-90. No Brandon Ingraham (22.7 ppg)
Feb. 26 Washington 92-86. No Bradley Beal (23.2 ppg)
Mar. 14 L.A. Clippers 120-111. No Paul George, Reggie Jackson or Marcus Morris
Apr. 10 Milwaukee 133-115. Last game of the season and the Bucks rested all their starters.
So about 30% of the Cavs’ wins were influenced by the opponents’ best player or several top players being out. You can argue the Cavs might have won some of those games anyway. For example, they beat the Bulls by 23 points and may have still won if DeRozan played. But the Cavs seemed unusually lucky this year in catching teams without their top players.
It’s very likely the reverse is true; the Cavs lost some games they would have won if they weren’t missing some combination of Garland, Allen, Mobley, or Markkanen. Not to mention they lost Sexton for 71 games and Ricky Rubio, who was second behind Garland in net on/off, was lost for the last 3.5 months.
I might have to do this again only looking at "tainted" losses this time. There are probably more than 13. But there were some wins against quality opponents that were not “tainted” which show what the Cavs are capable of when fully or mostly healthy:
Oct. 25 @ Denver 99-87. Sexton and Garland started, Love had 22 points in 25 minutes off the bench. Tremendous defensive game against a very good team.
Nov. 1 @ Charlotte 113-110. Sexton started, Rubio was a +23 in 21 minutes.
Nov. 29 @ Dallas 114-96. Post-Sexton injury. Rubio was a +30 off the bench.
Dec. 10 @ Minnesota 123-106. No D’Angelo Russell but I don’t think he’s a great player and the Cavs won by 17 so I didn't put it in the "tainted" category.
Jan. 26 Milwaukee 115-99. Markkanen was out but the Cavs won convincingly against the Bucks’ full roster from their Championship team.
Mar. 18 Denver 119-111 OT. No Jarrett Allen but the Cavs prevailed in OT. Markkanen had 31, Mobley 27, and Garland 25.
Those six games are a good indication of what this team was able to do when everybody was healthy. The Jan. 26 win over the Bucks might have been the most impressive win of the season considering the opponent and the margin of victory.
So the Cavs had 13 wins against good teams missing top players, but there were also six wins where the opponent had all their key guys but the Cavs won anyway.
They won 44 games, but it seemed like some of their wins against the strongest opponents were “tainted” due to those teams’ top players being out with injuries or COVID. So I decided to take a look. Here are 13 wins against quality opponents that I consider to be “suspect”.
Nov. 5 Toronto 102-101. No Pascal Siakam, who averaged 22.8 point and 8.5 rebounds
Nov. 13 Boston 91-89. No Jaylen Brown, 26.9 ppg
Dec. 1 Miami 111-85. No Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo, their two best players
Dec. 8 Chicago 115-92. No DeMar DeRozan or Coby White
Dec. 13 Miami 105-94. Still no Butler or Adebayo
Dec. 18 Milwaukee 119-90. No Giannis, Middleton, Holiday, or Portis
Dec. 26 Toronto 144-99. The entire starting lineup was out with COVID
Jan. 12 Utah 111-91. No Rudy Gobert, Rudy Gay, or Hassan Whiteside (both centers were out)
Jan. 17 Brooklyn 114-107. No Kevin Durant
Jan. 31 New Orleans 93-90. No Brandon Ingraham (22.7 ppg)
Feb. 26 Washington 92-86. No Bradley Beal (23.2 ppg)
Mar. 14 L.A. Clippers 120-111. No Paul George, Reggie Jackson or Marcus Morris
Apr. 10 Milwaukee 133-115. Last game of the season and the Bucks rested all their starters.
So about 30% of the Cavs’ wins were influenced by the opponents’ best player or several top players being out. You can argue the Cavs might have won some of those games anyway. For example, they beat the Bulls by 23 points and may have still won if DeRozan played. But the Cavs seemed unusually lucky this year in catching teams without their top players.
It’s very likely the reverse is true; the Cavs lost some games they would have won if they weren’t missing some combination of Garland, Allen, Mobley, or Markkanen. Not to mention they lost Sexton for 71 games and Ricky Rubio, who was second behind Garland in net on/off, was lost for the last 3.5 months.
I might have to do this again only looking at "tainted" losses this time. There are probably more than 13. But there were some wins against quality opponents that were not “tainted” which show what the Cavs are capable of when fully or mostly healthy:
Oct. 25 @ Denver 99-87. Sexton and Garland started, Love had 22 points in 25 minutes off the bench. Tremendous defensive game against a very good team.
Nov. 1 @ Charlotte 113-110. Sexton started, Rubio was a +23 in 21 minutes.
Nov. 29 @ Dallas 114-96. Post-Sexton injury. Rubio was a +30 off the bench.
Dec. 10 @ Minnesota 123-106. No D’Angelo Russell but I don’t think he’s a great player and the Cavs won by 17 so I didn't put it in the "tainted" category.
Jan. 26 Milwaukee 115-99. Markkanen was out but the Cavs won convincingly against the Bucks’ full roster from their Championship team.
Mar. 18 Denver 119-111 OT. No Jarrett Allen but the Cavs prevailed in OT. Markkanen had 31, Mobley 27, and Garland 25.
Those six games are a good indication of what this team was able to do when everybody was healthy. The Jan. 26 win over the Bucks might have been the most impressive win of the season considering the opponent and the margin of victory.
So the Cavs had 13 wins against good teams missing top players, but there were also six wins where the opponent had all their key guys but the Cavs won anyway.