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CavsFaninNJ

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IMO folks are making too much out of the Cavs being a "young" team. Looking at the key players come playoff time:

Garland - 4 years NBA experience (by the end of this season)
Mitchell - 6 years
LeVert - 7 years
Allen - 6 years
Mobley - 2 years
Okoro - 3 years
Love - 15 years
Rubio - 12 years

I'm seeing youth in terms of age but not in terms of experience. Mobley is the least experienced, but by the time the playoffs start he will have about 150 games under his belt and Okoro over 200. We won't be playing any rookies or guys who have been around a couple of years but haven't played much.

If anything youth is an advantage because teams with aging stars have to rest them during the season and they are more likely to be injured or worn down by April.

Durant turns 34 this month. In Boston, Horford is 36. He started 69 games for them last year and averaged 29 minutes. In Milwaukee Jrue Holiday is 32 while George Hill is 36 and Joe Ingles is 35. They have some old guards on that team.
Good point. When you draft high you get these 1 and done guys. All the guys we have who we drafted - Mobley (#3), Garland (#5), and Okoro (#5) - are 1 and done. Of the young core we traded for, Allen (#22) was also a 1 and done...oddly enough only Mitchell (#13 pick) played a second year of college.

Mitchell has 34 playoff games in his first 5 years as a pro.
 

guitarguy

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One thing to consider is the ages of all of these cores at the end of Donovan Mitchell's guaranteed contract and before his player option (his year 28 season).
First the Cavs for context:
Cavs - Garland (25) / Mitchell (28) / Allen (26) / Mobley (23)

Now compare with the ages of the cores of other teams in the East:
Bucks - Giannis (30) / Middleton (33) / Jrue (34)
Celtics - Tatum (26) / Brown (28) / Smart (30)
76ers - Embiid (30) / Harden (35)
Heat - Butler (35) / Adebayo (27) / Herro (25) / Lowry (38)
Nets - Irving (32) / Durant (36)
Raptors - Barnes (24) / Anunoby (27) / Siakam (30) / VanVleet (30)

The Celtics and Raptors will definitely still be in the height of their player's primes. But I don't know what a 36 year old Kevin Durant on a surgically repaired achilles looks like. I doubt Lowry will still be in the league and I don't know how productive Jimmy Butler or James Harden will be at 35 years old. Giannis' supporting crew will also be heading into their mid 30s as well.
Damn, can't believe Embiid is already 30. He was so much younger in my head. Makes you wonder when he starts to regress?

*** Edit comment...... (I should have read this better, he will be 30 in 2 years....) my bad. I'll keep the original comment so you can roast me, ha.
 
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foucault87

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Damn, can't believe Embiid is already 30. He was so much younger in my head. Makes you wonder when he starts to regress?

*** Edit comment...... (I should have read this better, he will be 30 in 2 years....) my bad. I'll keep the original comment so you can roast me, ha.
People forget but he was multi-year college guy and missed his first 2? Seasons ...thats a lot of years, but less miles than some other guys his age
 

rabman_gold

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/*long post incoming*/

I don't think it's that hard to be better than last year's play-in team. But to realize that improved potential, there are several factors in play.

First, my chart of what we had then VS now:

Last Year's Play-In #2As of September 2022Reason for Improvement
CenterJarrett AllenJarrett AllenHis hand should be healed now
Power ForwardEvan MobleyEvan MobleyHis potential growth into a star
Small ForwardLauri MarkkanenTBD *** (several different options)
Shooting GuardCaris LeVert (the only start with the 4 core starters from last year)Donovan MitchellWe have a proven scoring all-star with playoff experience
Point GuardDarius GarlandDarius GarlandStill a star, very young, still some room to grow
1st Big off BenchKevin LoveKevin LoveIt's a contract year, but also a reliable veteran shooter off the bench
1st Wing off BenchIssac OkoroTBD *** (several different options)
1st Guard off BenchRajon RondoTBD *** (Should be Ricky Rubio) - (Raul Neto could fill in temporarily)We now have a veteran or 2 who's adaptable to what the team needs
Limited Utility BigMoses Brown (no minutes)Robin LopezWe have a proven big man in limited minutes with replacement-level ability
Limited Utility WingLamar Stevens (no minutes)TBD *** (could be filled with multiple players)Defining roles means that whoever is in this role can step up when another guy gets injured
Wild CardCedi Osman (no minutes)Cedi OsmanThis is a contract year, so his value could be determined either by his performance or saving a team's salary space
End of Bench PlayerDylan Windler (no minutes)Dylan WindlerThis could be his last chance, TBD
End of Bench PlayerEd Davis (no minutes)

Looking at this chart, a few thoughts come to mind:
  1. Many of the younger ones now have 1 more year of experience (like Mobley and Garland) or a chance to recover from injury (Allen).
  2. By making the deal for Mitchell, we obtained a legitimate upgrade over last year's core (especially to replace Sexton).
  3. And other positions were given new life as well (like the signings of Rubio, when he returns, Raul Neto, and Lopez).
  4. Some have favorable contracts that could be leveraged for other assets come trade season or create cap space for next year (Love).
  5. And others are what I call "Wild Cards." Cedi Osman is like Jekyll and Hyde. Windler is in a Danny Green situation, to prove he either belongs in the NBA or is kicked out.
In addition, we also have a rather large hole at the wing positions that needs filled, possibly from 4 players:

Players to fill SF and Wing PositionsProsCons
Issac OkoroVery young (21), may have another gear (3rd season), already a decent defenderLacks several key skills that limits ceiling, does not have a lot of length to defend prototype SFs
Caris LeVertHas ability to score and create at 3 levels, deadly midrange shot, has shown the ability to defend well

(important note) When healthy: He should either be starting or the first player off the bench, but only IF he's healthy...
Can't stay healthy long enough to be counted on, lacks some length to defend large wings, not a reliable 3 point shooter, not always healthy, may not fit in the starting role with overlapping skillsets that others have, and also not healthy
Lamar StevensSmart b-ball IQ, a stout defender, does not need the ball to be effectiveHe is who he is, not towering, does not have a proven shot needed to be a 3-and-D player
Dean WadeHas the size to defend bigger wings (and power forwards perhaps), has the ability to hit the corner 3, another smart b-ball player, does not need the ball in his handsHe is who he is, has not shown the ability to stay healthy, he's a better fit as an emergency player rather than as a rotational piece

TL;DR

I think we're deeper. And I think we're gonna grow rapidly, between our 4 potential all-stars (Allen, Mobley, Garland, Mitchell), the quality players who fill a niche role (Rubio/Neto, Love, and Lopez), the 4 players fighting for the wing positions (Okoro, LeVert, Stevens, and Wade), and the guys on the outside looking in (Windler, Osman).

As an example, this could be similar to the breakout season the Cavs had in 1988-89. Nance Senior was acquired at the 1988 Trade Deadline, but once he was there for a whole season, they improved by 15 games (!), Is 57 wins not possible for them? If they can have some good luck and stay healthy (*knocks on wood*), the sky's the limit!
 

Peacedog

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/*long post incoming*/

I don't think it's that hard to be better than last year's play-in team. But to realize that improved potential, there are several factors in play.

First, my chart of what we had then VS now:

Last Year's Play-In #2As of September 2022Reason for Improvement
CenterJarrett AllenJarrett AllenHis hand should be healed now
Power ForwardEvan MobleyEvan MobleyHis potential growth into a star
Small ForwardLauri MarkkanenTBD *** (several different options)
Shooting GuardCaris LeVert (the only start with the 4 core starters from last year)Donovan MitchellWe have a proven scoring all-star with playoff experience
Point GuardDarius GarlandDarius GarlandStill a star, very young, still some room to grow
1st Big off BenchKevin LoveKevin LoveIt's a contract year, but also a reliable veteran shooter off the bench
1st Wing off BenchIssac OkoroTBD *** (several different options)
1st Guard off BenchRajon RondoTBD *** (Should be Ricky Rubio) - (Raul Neto could fill in temporarily)We now have a veteran or 2 who's adaptable to what the team needs
Limited Utility BigMoses Brown (no minutes)Robin LopezWe have a proven big man in limited minutes with replacement-level ability
Limited Utility WingLamar Stevens (no minutes)TBD *** (could be filled with multiple players)Defining roles means that whoever is in this role can step up when another guy gets injured
Wild CardCedi Osman (no minutes)Cedi OsmanThis is a contract year, so his value could be determined either by his performance or saving a team's salary space
End of Bench PlayerDylan Windler (no minutes)Dylan WindlerThis could be his last chance, TBD
End of Bench PlayerEd Davis (no minutes)

Looking at this chart, a few thoughts come to mind:
  1. Many of the younger ones now have 1 more year of experience (like Mobley and Garland) or a chance to recover from injury (Allen).
  2. By making the deal for Mitchell, we obtained a legitimate upgrade over last year's core (especially to replace Sexton).
  3. And other positions were given new life as well (like the signings of Rubio, when he returns, Raul Neto, and Lopez).
  4. Some have favorable contracts that could be leveraged for other assets come trade season or create cap space for next year (Love).
  5. And others are what I call "Wild Cards." Cedi Osman is like Jekyll and Hyde. Windler is in a Danny Green situation, to prove he either belongs in the NBA or is kicked out.
In addition, we also have a rather large hole at the wing positions that needs filled, possibly from 4 players:

Players to fill SF and Wing PositionsProsCons
Issac OkoroVery young (21), may have another gear (3rd season), already a decent defenderLacks several key skills that limits ceiling, does not have a lot of length to defend prototype SFs
Caris LeVertHas ability to score and create at 3 levels, deadly midrange shot, has shown the ability to defend well

(important note) When healthy: He should either be starting or the first player off the bench, but only IF he's healthy...
Can't stay healthy long enough to be counted on, lacks some length to defend large wings, not a reliable 3 point shooter, not always healthy, may not fit in the starting role with overlapping skillsets that others have, and also not healthy
Lamar StevensSmart b-ball IQ, a stout defender, does not need the ball to be effectiveHe is who he is, not towering, does not have a proven shot needed to be a 3-and-D player
Dean WadeHas the size to defend bigger wings (and power forwards perhaps), has the ability to hit the corner 3, another smart b-ball player, does not need the ball in his handsHe is who he is, has not shown the ability to stay healthy, he's a better fit as an emergency player rather than as a rotational piece

TL;DR

I think we're deeper. And I think we're gonna grow rapidly, between our 4 potential all-stars (Allen, Mobley, Garland, Mitchell), the quality players who fill a niche role (Rubio/Neto, Love, and Lopez), the 4 players fighting for the wing positions (Okoro, LeVert, Stevens, and Wade), and the guys on the outside looking in (Windler, Osman).

As an example, this could be similar to the breakout season the Cavs had in 1988-89. Nance Senior was acquired at the 1988 Trade Deadline, but once he was there for a whole season, they improved by 15 games (!), Is 57 wins not possible for them? If they can have some good luck and stay healthy (*knocks on wood*), the sky's the limit!
55 wins and potentially a top seed awaits...depending on the health of some of our rivals (mainly Mil, Bos, Brooklyn).
 

Funkmastabuck

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I actually think after Okoro, Cedi is probably the 2nd in line to start at SF. He may be a wild card but I think he fits well with what would be surrounding him.
 

rabman_gold

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I actually think after Okoro, Cedi is probably the 2nd in line to start at SF. He may be a wild card but I think he fits well with what would be surrounding him.
You're right. But what good is his skillset if he can't limit his impulsive plays?

It would be perfect for us, if he could reign it in. The only one stopping Cedi... is Cedi.
 

cabs

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Cedi ended last season out of the rotation, I dont think he magically jumps to starter unless he has an unbelievable preseason
 

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i added another 7 units spit between the cavs ecf 16/1 and finals 34/1 to the already 23 units i had split between the ecf 42/1 and 100/1 finals..... biggest bets ive ever made...also have two units bickerstaff 35/1 coy and mobely 3 units 45/1 mip

added three units on raptors 16/1 to win the atlantic(pre 76ers/harrell and celtics/williams miniscus and post gallinari acl)

unrealted to the eastern conference/cavs.....bought three units total split on pelicans 23/1 wcf and finals 50/1


barring injuries, im betting sometime in november/december the cavs ecf price gets down to 2.5/1 and finals 6/1....
 
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cavsfever

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Cedi ended last season out of the rotation, I dont think he magically jumps to starter unless he has an unbelievable preseason

He has to get his defense straight. I think Wade, Cedi, and Okoro are all very flawed at SF but they also have their individual strengths and they are all we have, so one should emerge. I don't see any of the three as being clearly better than the other two, once you adjust for the fact that we haven't really seen Wade's full potential yet.

I hope they don't just roll Levert out there on a "five best players" theory or something, hard to see how he fits.
 

Peacedog

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i added another 7 units spit between the cavs ecf 16/1 and finals 34/1 to the already 23 units i had split between the ecf 42/1 and 100/1 finals..... biggest bets ive ever made...also have two units bickerstaff 35/1 coy and mobely 3 units 45/1 mip

added three units on raptors 16/1 to win the atlantic(pre 76ers/harrell and celtics/williams miniscus and post gallinari acl)

unrealted to the eastern conference/cavs.....bought three units total split on pelicans 23/1 wcf and finals 50/1


barring injuries, im betting sometime in november/december the cavs ecf price gets down to 2.5/1 and finals 6/1....
Great to see you post again, gambler! Stick around here for the season, it could be a hell of a ride!
 

gambler

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Cavatt

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If Cedi just played defense he could start. He's usually better when better players are around him and he does have chemistry with Darius.

I really don't get why he is so boneheaded on that end. It was supposed to be his strength coming in.
 

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