Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

[CavsFan07]

But guys, he works hard!!!

 

[BigZ94]

But guys, he works hard!!!

So did Matt Mooney probably

 

[weepinwillow]

Okoro is fine. He needs to work on his jumper and his handles. Even if he doesn't develop those things, he'll have an NBA role.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Edit: One more comment on the comparison. Comparing Okoro's stats vs wings and Wade vs forwards is sloppy statistics. Those are two distinct populations. You cannot infer anything from one about the other unless you look at combined population stats.

So would you compare Allen's assist numbers to Garland's? Or Garland's rebound numbers to Allen's? Of course not, that would be ridiculous.

But would you compare Allen's rebounding to that of other bigs? Or Garland's assist percentage to that of other point guards? I would because it would give me an idea of how good a player is compared to others at his position.

If Allen is in the 90th percentile in assists while Garland is in the 10th, for example, I'd say Allen helps the team with his passing while Garland does not, even though Garland may have more assists per game.

I think there's more relevance in comparing players to others who play the same position than in looking at "combined population stats".

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Okoro is fine. He needs to work on his jumper and his handles. Even if he doesn't develop those things, he'll have an NBA role.

Yeah, but are we happy with a guy who is "fine" and "has a role" despite having no jump shot and is a poor ball handler? Lamar Stevens fits that description and we got him for nothing. Okoro cost us the 5th overall pick in the draft. A weak draft, to be sure, but still - a #5 pick for a guy who can't dribble much, can't shoot at all, rarely gets a rebound, and lacks the length to guard taller wings?

 

[weepinwillow]

Yeah, but are we happy with a guy who is "fine" and "has a role" despite having no jump shot and is a poor ball handler? Lamar Stevens fits that description and we got him for nothing. Okoro cost us the 5th overall pick in the draft. A weak draft, to be sure, but still - a #5 pick for a guy who can't dribble much, can't shoot at all, rarely gets a rebound, and lacks the length to guard taller wings?

Lamar doesn't fit Okoro's description, as he isn't as good a player.
If Okoro doesn't develop his offense he will be a bust here, for sure. That's the nature of being drafted 5th. But if he adds a jumper even just a C&S one, he's a very good NBA starter.
So, can he learn to be a ~.340 3 point shooter over the next year or so?

 

[Dr No]

He's not contributing much this year, but I doubt Okoro is a a bust long term. With what they've invested and with front office careers on the line, the Cavs will pour every resource they have into helping him succeed. I think this, plus his athleticism and work ethic, keep him from being a washout. My worry is he's just limited. His standing reach is not great and taller NBA level scorers just go over the top of him as do rebounders. If he's limited to guarding guys his own size, who do Garland and Sexton cover? On offence, he may or may not develop. He can't handle the ball well enough to be a good distributor. He can't shoot well enough to be a floor spacer. And he doesn't (can't?) just go get his own shot. I think he'll get better in all areas - he will certainly get every opportunity - but that is a lot of areas to improve upon even for a young guy. I think he'll play and have a career, but realistically how high can he go?

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

How high can he go? I see a good comp as Marcus Smart, another strong, tough, relentless defender who doesn't score a lot. Smart was a #6 overall pick and is 6'3" 220 pounds, so he's pretty comparable although a couple of inches shorter.

In his rookie season Smart shot 36.7% from the field and 33.5% on 3's. Okoro is at 40.2% and 28.3% on 3's. Smart averaged 3.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists against Okoro's 2.7 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Smart was a little better as a rookie in every area except overall shooting percentage. Smart was about a year older than Okoro as a rookie.

Last year, his sixth NBA season, Smart shot 37.5% overall and 34.7% on 3's. He improved about 1% in both areas in five years. Not too encouraging. His rebounding went from 3.3 to 3.8 per game and his assists from 3.1 to 4.9.

Smart is a guy who wasn't a very good shooter as a rookie and has barely improved at all in five years. I hope that's not the case for Okoro but I suspect that in five years his numbers will have improved about as much as Smart's have.

 

[inliner311]

How high can he go? I see a good comp as Marcus Smart, another strong, tough, relentless defender who doesn't score a lot. Smart was a #6 overall pick and is 6'3" 220 pounds, so he's pretty comparable although a couple of inches shorter.

In his rookie season Smart shot 36.7% from the field and 33.5% on 3's. Okoro is at 40.2% and 28.3% on 3's. Smart averaged 3.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists against Okoro's 2.7 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Smart was a little better as a rookie in every area except overall shooting percentage. Smart was about a year older than Okoro as a rookie.

Last year, his sixth NBA season, Smart shot 37.5% overall and 34.7% on 3's. He improved about 1% in both areas in five years. Not too encouraging. His rebounding went from 3.3 to 3.8 per game and his assists from 3.1 to 4.9.

Smart is a guy who wasn't a very good shooter as a rookie and has barely improved at all in five years. I hope that's not the case for Okoro but I suspect that in five years his numbers will have improved about as much as Smart's have.

The big difference between Smart and Okoro is Smart can run the point. He might not be a starting caliber PG but he has guard skills that make it easier to put him in the rotation. He can be your backup PG or secondary ball handler.

 

[Futuredome]

The lack of guard skills is what people miss about Okoro.

 

[inliner311]

The lack of guard skills is what people miss about Okoro.

Exactly, you expect ball handling and shooting from your guards. If a player lacks those things, they have to be made up by some other position. Now that possibly means we have to find a stretch 5 and ball handling SF or PF to make Okoro playable.

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

Lamar doesn't fit Okoro's description, as he isn't as good a player.
If Okoro doesn't develop his offense he will be a bust here, for sure. That's the nature of being drafted 5th. But if he adds a jumper even just a C&S one, he's a very good NBA starter.
So, can he learn to be a ~.340 3 point shooter over the next year or so?

Okoro was a 28.6% 3pt shooter in college and is currently shooting 28.3% as a pro. Never at any point in his basketball life has he ever been a good shooter. Okoro becoming a 34% 3pt shooter isn't impossible I guess, but it would seem to be a minor miracle.

To me, Okoro is MKG pt II. Similar build, can't shoot, and no real offensive skill, though MKG is a better rebounder.

 

[Kouki]

Difference being that MKG's shot is completely broken.

Okoro doesn't have horrible form, actually it looks pretty good. I'm no shooting form expert but anecdotally he struggles with consistent arc and balance which is evident in his landing. Also looks like he's going to fall over forward on every FT attempt.

I'll make a $50 RCF bet that he is above 33% by end of year 3.

 

[WorldFreeB]

Difference being that MKG's shot is completely broken.

Okoro doesn't have horrible form, actually it looks pretty good. I'm no shooting form expert but anecdotally he struggles with consistent arc and balance which is evident in his landing. Also looks like he's going to fall over forward on every FT attempt.

I'll make a $50 RCF bet that he is above 33% by end of year 3.

Good lord that's an awfully low bar 33% after 3 years? Thats Cedi Osman territory.

 

[Rich]

Difference being that MKG's shot is completely broken.

Okoro doesn't have horrible form, actually it looks pretty good. I'm no shooting form expert but anecdotally he struggles with consistent arc and balance which is evident in his landing. Also looks like he's going to fall over forward on every FT attempt.

I'll make a $50 RCF bet that he is above 33% by end of year 3.

Agree.

His form is pretty decent.

I'm not writing him off completely as a guy who can eventually be a decent NBA rotation player.

I will write him off and say he's never gonna be a star nor will he be a starting small forward.

But he should be better than MKG offensively, at least.