Kevin Pelton: Chad, the 2014 NBA draft discussion was dominated by one question:
Andrew Wiggins or
Jabari Parker? Two-plus years later, as both players are progressing toward making good on the potential they showed as college freshmen, the question still remains relevant.
So, with all due respect to the other elite prospects from 2014 (
Joel Embiid, whose return to health
we discussed last week), let's revisit that debate now.
Who has more star potential?
Pre-draft expectations
Pelton: First off, to set the stage, let's go back to that draft. What did scouts like about Parker and Wiggins, what questions did they have, and what ultimately led the
Cleveland Cavaliers to take Wiggins over Parker before subsequently trading him to the
Minnesota Timberwolves as the centerpiece of the package for All-Star
Kevin Love?
Ford: Parker started his high school career as the No. 1 player in his class. He received considerable hype as a high school freshman with a number of media outlets and scouts wondering whether he was the next big NBA superstar. However, a foot injury suffered over the summer before his senior season, combined with the rise of Wiggins -- who reclassified from the high school class of 2014 to 2013 -- helped Wiggins leapfrog Parker.
While Parker had the superior offensive basketball skills, Wiggins' elite athleticism and ability to defend multiple positions really intrigued scouts. Parker's lack of elite explosiveness and questions about whom he'd guard in the NBA were his main weaknesses. For Wiggins, the concerns primarily centered on his shooting and some passivity offensively at Kansas.
By draft night, virtually every team in the league had settled on Wiggins as the top pick. Upside matters at the top, and most teams felt his ceiling would be higher than Parker's, although it should be noted that, had Embiid not been injured in a pre-draft workout, he likely would've been the No. 1 pick.
There was at least one team that wasn't on the "Wiggins for No. 1" bandwagon, though. Sources on the Milwaukee Bucks told me before the draft that they preferred Parker to Wiggins. The Bucks felt that he had a stronger work ethic and greater leadership skills than Wiggins. They also felt that he'd be the superior offensive player, a bigger need for them at the time. Had the Bucks had the No. 1 pick, I think Parker would've been the choice.
Before the draft, which player measured out statistically as the better prospect, Kevin?
Pelton: Parker had the substantially better WARP projection by virtue of his superior scoring. Parker used a higher percentage of Duke's plays (32.7 percent) than Wiggins did at Kansas (26.3) and was equally efficient as a scorer. Yet I put Wiggins higher in my subjective draft rankings -- albeit both behind
Dante Exum and
Marcus Smart, who had the best WARP projection in the draft -- because of his wing defense and concerns about Parker's defense in the pros.
That's maybe an interesting place to turn the discussion to where the scouting reports and statistical projections have been right and wrong about these two players, since Wiggins has lived up to scouts' expectations as a scorer but has yet to do so at the defensive end.
How do they stack up now?
Ford: I actually think Wiggins has exceeded scouts' expectations as a scorer. Remember, the knock from the media and from scouts was that Wiggins was too passive offensively. He wasn't selfish or aggressive enough. At the age of 21 he's already a top-10 scorer in the league (averaging 26.3 points per game) and just hung a career-high 47 points on the Lakers on Sunday night. Even more surprising, Wiggins is shooting a red-hot 55 percent from 3.
Those numbers aren't going to stay that high, and we're dealing with a small sample size this season, but I don't think there's any question about his scoring ability or offensive aggressiveness.
I do think Wiggins has been a disappointment in all the other areas where we expected him to shine, especially on defense. His real plus-minus (RPM) ranking last season defensively was a major disappointment. He showed the physical tools and the willingness to defend at Kansas.
What's the issue, Kevin?
Pelton: Yeah, it's safe to say Wiggins' shooting is going to regress. The confidence interval on a 31-shot sample like Wiggins currently has from 3 is about 18 percent in either direction. (Which, I suppose, does mean he could really be a 70 percent shooter. But probably not.)
Beyond that, Wiggins has kept increasing his usage rate, which now ranks 14th in the league at 30.8 percent. He's also drawing more fouls than ever, improving what has probably been his best NBA skill.
Yet you're right that Wiggins hasn't yet shown improvement this season in the nonscoring areas of his game. Given his athleticism, it's hard to understand why Wiggins gets so few steals (four this season), blocks (four) and rebounds (his defensive rebound percentage is below average for a guard, let alone a player spending so much time at small forward).
Last season, Timberwolves color analyst Jim Petersen pointed out that too often Wiggins wasn't in a defensive stance and ready to make a play off the ball, which explained the discrepancy between his mostly good one-on-one defense and his poor off-ball defense.
I hoped Tom Thibodeau's arrival would force Wiggins into better defensive habits. So far that doesn't seem to be the case. Minnesota's defensive rating ranks 22nd in the league, and the Timberwolves are allowing 3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with Wiggins on the bench, per NBA.com/Stats. That number is likely to fluctuate, but it matches up with what Wiggins' individual stats are telling us.
What have you seen this season from Parker?
Ford: He's having the best season of his career, but I think he has been a less dominant offensive player than the Bucks had hoped. He's a bit caught between positions, and that shows on both ends of the floor. As a wing, he's not quite the shooter or ball creator Milwaukee needs. As a 4, he has proved to be a mismatch problem offensively but a liability as a rebounder and defender.
The fact that
Giannis Antetokounmpo has the ball in his hands so much has limited what Parker does a little, I think. I don't know whether that will be a permanent problem. They're both young and will continue to figure out how to play together, but he has looked more dominant when
Matthew Dellavedovaruns the point.
Carmelo Anthony career path than the
DeMar DeRozan or
Rudy Gay comps thrown out by statistical analysts. So I'd take my chances with Wiggins.