foucault87
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Okay, I promised some commentary on how I think team-building should be done last night. After a full day of work and not thinking about this draft, I am here to offer my take. Overall, I don't think any of the moves we have made are terrible in a vacuum or even together, but they signify to me a worrying trend for the plan moving forward.
The overall plan for how we build is obviously dependent on your goal. If you are in championship or bust, like the LeBron years, you dismantle everything you can to increase your win probability by 2%. If you are the Washington Wizards and chasing the 8 seed for 20 straight years, you only make moves to get you to that minimal level of success. In my opinion, the best goal for an average NBA team is to target a playoff contender that is able to consistently get to the 2nd round and can sustain a championship run over the course of that contention. If things break right, like Atl in 2021 or Portland in 2018, you can make a deeper run or even contend for a title (Mia 2020). Now, if you have a superstar or you just lost one, the goals are very different. IMO, the Cavs have their superstar (Mobley), but it is VERY early in the timeline. Our goal should be to get to the point where the non-Mobley part of our team gets us to that consistent 2nd round level and will stay there for the next 7-10 years. Then, the addition of a ceiling raiser like Mobley vaults us into that championship debate.
Let us start with a few quick case studies. In my opinion, the five best FOs in the league today in some order are Mem, Tor, Mia, SAS, and GSW. There are obviously some unique features for all these teams, like having the greatest shooter of all time or the best coach in NBA history, but their team building philosophies are pretty consistent. They focus on taking low risk, medium reward moves on the margins (which we have done), high risk, high reward at the core unless there is a move so obvious a caveman could do it (which we have done), and taking a lot of medium risk, high reward swings at the middle (which we have failed to do).
The kinds of players these franchises target is pretty consistent. They take high character, high IQ players who work hard and have some skills and potential. None of them pull "smartest guy in the room" moves like drafting Dion Waiters, but they are not beyond taking some major risks to get their guys like drafting Primo or LaRivia high. Most importantly, you will never see these franchises making desperate moves to gain a short term boost to their wins. Every move is thought out and factored for the long game.
Looking at the moves up to this point, it looks like we have been planning a slow rebuild. We have mostly focused on taking raw players with our picks. We have used our assets to make small moves on the margins, like turning cap space into half a season of Javale McGee, half a season of Hartenstein, and 3 2nds. We have made some awesome pickups on the margins with guys like Dean Wade and Lamar Stevens looking like legitimate NBA players coming from undrafted status. Our high level moves have been a mix of high risk, high reward and low risk, high reward plays with the goal of putting together what might be a strong playoff team. We are on a great trajectory.
And the consistent core of it all? Getting no nonsense, high character players who enjoy playing ball and aren't likely to be causing any major problems off the court or have any internal chemistry problems (with one notable exception who is long gone).
What we didn't count on was all the factors from the 2021 offseason, Love buying in, Mobley being the best defensive rookie since Tim Duncan, Allen and Garland levelling up into All-Stars, Lauri turning into a legit starting 3, and Rubio bringing it all together, turning us into a playoff caliber team in 2021. The major moves since then have signaled to me that the Cavs are suddenly throwing away several years of careful planning and development for an unnecessary playoff push.
The LeVert trade, our draft picks yesterday, all of them were medium to low risk and low reward moves. None of these moves are franchise destroying on their own. The problem is what we gave up or passed up to get these guys and how much impact we can expect from them. Suppose we had traded for Derrick White instead of LeVert or taken a player like Branham or Eason instead of Ochai. Our 2023 outlook is probably worse off for that. Our 2025-28 prospects are looking better, not much, but better.
The reason I am worried is that these moves suggest a team that is desperate and has an outlook only one to two seasons out. The last time we were nearing contention, in 2014, we made two aggressive trades to get Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes. We won 33 games, lost both guys in the offseason. We then got very lucky in winning a lottery that let us trade for Kevin Love and was enough to convince LeBron to come home. I am worried for the other scenario, where we end up with the 9th pick in that draft, end up taking Noah Vonleh and watch Kyrie leave and begin a perpetual rebuild as Kings East.
With Mobley, Allen, and Garland, we have a big 3 that gives us the chance to be championship contenders in the next decade. I know we are hungry for our first non-LeBron playoff run in two decades, but we should not be putting the cart before the horse. We have to make moves that give us the best chance to succeed in the long term. We have taken a major step, building a team first, hard working culture. Now we need to stay that course and build for what could be a great dynasty here.
EDIT: added some spoiler tags to break up the text and make this more readable.
The overall plan for how we build is obviously dependent on your goal. If you are in championship or bust, like the LeBron years, you dismantle everything you can to increase your win probability by 2%. If you are the Washington Wizards and chasing the 8 seed for 20 straight years, you only make moves to get you to that minimal level of success. In my opinion, the best goal for an average NBA team is to target a playoff contender that is able to consistently get to the 2nd round and can sustain a championship run over the course of that contention. If things break right, like Atl in 2021 or Portland in 2018, you can make a deeper run or even contend for a title (Mia 2020). Now, if you have a superstar or you just lost one, the goals are very different. IMO, the Cavs have their superstar (Mobley), but it is VERY early in the timeline. Our goal should be to get to the point where the non-Mobley part of our team gets us to that consistent 2nd round level and will stay there for the next 7-10 years. Then, the addition of a ceiling raiser like Mobley vaults us into that championship debate.
Let us start with a few quick case studies. In my opinion, the five best FOs in the league today in some order are Mem, Tor, Mia, SAS, and GSW. There are obviously some unique features for all these teams, like having the greatest shooter of all time or the best coach in NBA history, but their team building philosophies are pretty consistent. They focus on taking low risk, medium reward moves on the margins (which we have done), high risk, high reward at the core unless there is a move so obvious a caveman could do it (which we have done), and taking a lot of medium risk, high reward swings at the middle (which we have failed to do).
Memphis - These guys have won hard on just about every move they have made in the last few years. Honestly, they may have been too successful with the sheer volume of legitimate NBA players they have had on their roster. They consistently make smart picks outside the top (Bane, Clarke) and even with later picks (Tillman, Melton). I would argue their worst decision in the last few years was the JV trade, but they turned that into a center who fit their rotation much better and helped push their team to the next level. Yes, getting Ja was a bit of luck, but of any team in the last 5 years, these guys are the model franchise who has really manufactured their own luck. I think its pretty well stated elsewhere that the Grizz are my 2nd team and have been for a few years now.
Toronto - Masai's time with Toronto can be split into two portions. When he first got there, he had an incomplete roster that had all the supporting cast but was using DDR as the primary offensive hub. He saw a chance to get a true primary option and traded for Kawhi and won a championship. Since then, they have been in a sort of pseudo-rebuilding phase. Tor takes some major gambles with their picks (OG, Scottie, Banton) and to their credit have largely been correct. They have a pretty obvious type: long, wing-sized, athletic, high IQ, bad shot. It has been working for them and they have clearly shown their developmental pipeline does a great job of developing shooting with guys like OG, Pascal, and even Boucher. Their scouting and decision-making is in the upper tier of the league and they have consistently found players that were overlooked by many others.
Miami - They have made some really dumb FA signings over the years. That Tyler Johnson contract should give Sexton hope for a massive extension sometime. However, Miami probably wins the margins harder than any other team in the NBA. Spo found Duncan Robinson in a bin somewhere, stuck him in the G-League for a few years, and now he makes $10m a year. Duncan doesn't play anymore because they found a better version of him in Max Strus. Like Tor, they have a very clear type: high IQ, toolsy, gym rat. Miami has had the 2nd longest FO in place of the teams mentioned here and you can go back to the Wade/Shaq days and find them getting guys on the margins including fan favorite, Udonis Haslem.
San Antonio - This blurb is going to be short. SAS has been the best front office in the league over the span of 1997-2022, although I think they aren't quite as ahead of the curve as their heyday. We know how well they have done with drafting over the years, finding foreign players and turning them into serviceable role players, and focusing their strategy around high-character, high IQ, hard working players. We also know they place a very high importance on the interview process. One final observation about SAS is that they are probably the most player friendly org in the NBA. There are a number of notable instances (Johnathan Simmons, Boban, + more) where Pops essential shoved a rotation player out the door who wanted to stay for less money to go sign a bigger deal with a different team. This kind of reputation is important and can draw players to a smaller market.
Golden State - There has been a lot of luck for this FO, from inheriting Steph Curry and Draymond on bargain contracts, timing the 2016 cap hit amazingly, and turning KD into D'Lo and then Wiggins + Moody. I am however, much more interested in how this team with its solid core has consistently been able to churn out solid rotation players from minimum contracts and low draft picks. Yes, some guys like DMC or Otto were ring chasing vets. They also uncovered some real gems like JTA, Looney and of course, Jordan Poole. Poole was absolutely a reach where he was taken, but he was taken as a medium risk, high reward bet which absolutely worked out.
The kinds of players these franchises target is pretty consistent. They take high character, high IQ players who work hard and have some skills and potential. None of them pull "smartest guy in the room" moves like drafting Dion Waiters, but they are not beyond taking some major risks to get their guys like drafting Primo or LaRivia high. Most importantly, you will never see these franchises making desperate moves to gain a short term boost to their wins. Every move is thought out and factored for the long game.
So, what have we seen from Koby? The 2018 season was a pretty messy affair and the tail end of a LeBron run, so I won't spend too much time there. The 2018 draft was the first chance he had to make a move with long term implications. The obvious pick(s) where to take Mikal Bridges or SGA. As a high risk, high reward option, we had MPJ. Collin Sexton was taken as a bit more of a middle ground play - I would characterize him as medium risk, medium reward. Its not the pick I loved at the time, but I would not call it a miss. Obviously there were more complicating circumstances, SGA refused to interview, Mikal Bridges wouldn't put butts in seats, MPJ had many red flags. More important than the player picked, Collin Sexton gives us a good view into what Koby Altman values in his players: high character, hard working guys. Sound familiar?
Now, fast forward to 2019 and we have 3 picks. Atlanta trades up to 4 and takes DeAndre Hunter who was our primary target. We are then faced with a choice between Darius Garland, a very high risk - high reward prospect, and my pick, Jarret Culver, who looked like a medium risk - medium reward guy at the time. Koby trusted his network here and clearly made the correct pick with Darius. There were some gambles late in the first that were low risk, high reward and both ended up failing with Windler and KPJ. They didn't cost much in terms of resources.
2020 was a messy draft for many reasons. Okoro has not been the most popular player over the last few years, but at the time he was a very popular pick here, including the number 2 guy on my own board. I think the jury is still out on this one, but I would characterize Okoro as a medium risk, high reward player. Now there were certainly some low risk, high reward guys with very high floors we passed on (Hali, Okongwu) who could have led us on a different trajectory, but ultimately, I think the Okoro move was defensible given the poor information around that draft and the overall chaos of 2020.
Later that year, a very unhappy James Harden forced his way out of Houston and we swooped in to snag Jarrett Allen for the cost of a measly protected Milwaukee first. This was a winning trade to the level of the ones that Danny Ainge used to pull when he was a top 10 GM in the league and not a bottom 10 one. Getting a 23 yo All-Star caliber center for a late 1st? Great. Signing him to an extremely reasonable contract? Awesome.
The moves in the 2021 offseason I think have been the high point so far. Drafting Mobley was a pretty obvious decision in my mind and I am glad we did it. The Rubio trade looked like it was going to be an inconsequential move, just a swap of expiring contracts, but turned into the acquisition of a very important role player. The LNJ trade ended up being a player friendly move (sending a guy from a presumptive lottery team to a playoff team) that returned a player in Lauri with a very valuable skillset, not that we knew how valuable at the time. The other big move was convincing Kevin Love to become a bench guy and vet leader and turning him into a 20 mpg All-star and 6MOTY candidate.
Now, fast forward to 2019 and we have 3 picks. Atlanta trades up to 4 and takes DeAndre Hunter who was our primary target. We are then faced with a choice between Darius Garland, a very high risk - high reward prospect, and my pick, Jarret Culver, who looked like a medium risk - medium reward guy at the time. Koby trusted his network here and clearly made the correct pick with Darius. There were some gambles late in the first that were low risk, high reward and both ended up failing with Windler and KPJ. They didn't cost much in terms of resources.
2020 was a messy draft for many reasons. Okoro has not been the most popular player over the last few years, but at the time he was a very popular pick here, including the number 2 guy on my own board. I think the jury is still out on this one, but I would characterize Okoro as a medium risk, high reward player. Now there were certainly some low risk, high reward guys with very high floors we passed on (Hali, Okongwu) who could have led us on a different trajectory, but ultimately, I think the Okoro move was defensible given the poor information around that draft and the overall chaos of 2020.
Later that year, a very unhappy James Harden forced his way out of Houston and we swooped in to snag Jarrett Allen for the cost of a measly protected Milwaukee first. This was a winning trade to the level of the ones that Danny Ainge used to pull when he was a top 10 GM in the league and not a bottom 10 one. Getting a 23 yo All-Star caliber center for a late 1st? Great. Signing him to an extremely reasonable contract? Awesome.
The moves in the 2021 offseason I think have been the high point so far. Drafting Mobley was a pretty obvious decision in my mind and I am glad we did it. The Rubio trade looked like it was going to be an inconsequential move, just a swap of expiring contracts, but turned into the acquisition of a very important role player. The LNJ trade ended up being a player friendly move (sending a guy from a presumptive lottery team to a playoff team) that returned a player in Lauri with a very valuable skillset, not that we knew how valuable at the time. The other big move was convincing Kevin Love to become a bench guy and vet leader and turning him into a 20 mpg All-star and 6MOTY candidate.
Looking at the moves up to this point, it looks like we have been planning a slow rebuild. We have mostly focused on taking raw players with our picks. We have used our assets to make small moves on the margins, like turning cap space into half a season of Javale McGee, half a season of Hartenstein, and 3 2nds. We have made some awesome pickups on the margins with guys like Dean Wade and Lamar Stevens looking like legitimate NBA players coming from undrafted status. Our high level moves have been a mix of high risk, high reward and low risk, high reward plays with the goal of putting together what might be a strong playoff team. We are on a great trajectory.
And the consistent core of it all? Getting no nonsense, high character players who enjoy playing ball and aren't likely to be causing any major problems off the court or have any internal chemistry problems (with one notable exception who is long gone).
What we didn't count on was all the factors from the 2021 offseason, Love buying in, Mobley being the best defensive rookie since Tim Duncan, Allen and Garland levelling up into All-Stars, Lauri turning into a legit starting 3, and Rubio bringing it all together, turning us into a playoff caliber team in 2021. The major moves since then have signaled to me that the Cavs are suddenly throwing away several years of careful planning and development for an unnecessary playoff push.
The LeVert trade, our draft picks yesterday, all of them were medium to low risk and low reward moves. None of these moves are franchise destroying on their own. The problem is what we gave up or passed up to get these guys and how much impact we can expect from them. Suppose we had traded for Derrick White instead of LeVert or taken a player like Branham or Eason instead of Ochai. Our 2023 outlook is probably worse off for that. Our 2025-28 prospects are looking better, not much, but better.
The reason I am worried is that these moves suggest a team that is desperate and has an outlook only one to two seasons out. The last time we were nearing contention, in 2014, we made two aggressive trades to get Luol Deng and Spencer Hawes. We won 33 games, lost both guys in the offseason. We then got very lucky in winning a lottery that let us trade for Kevin Love and was enough to convince LeBron to come home. I am worried for the other scenario, where we end up with the 9th pick in that draft, end up taking Noah Vonleh and watch Kyrie leave and begin a perpetual rebuild as Kings East.
With Mobley, Allen, and Garland, we have a big 3 that gives us the chance to be championship contenders in the next decade. I know we are hungry for our first non-LeBron playoff run in two decades, but we should not be putting the cart before the horse. We have to make moves that give us the best chance to succeed in the long term. We have taken a major step, building a team first, hard working culture. Now we need to stay that course and build for what could be a great dynasty here.
EDIT: added some spoiler tags to break up the text and make this more readable.
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