FiveThous
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4th Downs and expected points are sort of tied together. There are people way better at explaining it than myself such as Brian Burke:Explain the 4th down, expected points, and timeout management to me
http://www.advancedfootballanalytic...s-explained/expected-points-and-epa-explained
For example, kicking a FG inside in the 5 is almost always the wrong mantra. By "taking the points" you're completely ignoring that your Expected points inside the 5 are closer to 5 points vs something like 2.9 for a FG. You're also ignoring the historical data of points and field position most likely to occur by your opponents starting within their own 5-10 yard line should you fail to convert.
Punting on 4th down is linked back to the days of when teams would be lucky to score 1-2 times a game and hasn't really adjusted for modern offenses. By not being more aggressive on 4th Downs you're seeing a lot of potential points left on the board.
There are definitely a lot of resources out there but Brian Burke's article above is a good crash course on the topic.
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