While many see Agbaji as a safe bet, the small role he fits into in the NBA may make him overvalued if taken too high on draft night
theboxandone.substack.com
"Upperclassmen 3-and-D players may be overdrafted. That’s not to say that drafting Corey Kispert or Cameron Johnson in the lottery is a bad idea. But for every solid wing that gets taken top-20, there’s a guy just as impactful at his role who didn’t even sniff the top-30, like Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Wesley Matthews, Danny Green, Garrison Matthews or Gary Trent Jr.
Agbaji may be a low-risk prospect because he’s older and has clearly-projectable strengths that everyone can clearly see how to win with. But the risk with a guy like Agbaji comes in the opportunity cost; taking a guy of his position and mold instead of an archetype that is more challenging to fill with a value pick or undrafted free agent.
Part of the reason Agbaji, in particular, is the guy directly linked to our indictment on drafting 3-and-D players extremely high is because there are clear limitations to his game at the next level that box in his ceiling in an off-ball role. Agbaji has real trouble scoring off the bounce. His drives to the rim are done with a surprising lack of athleticism, his pull-up jumper seems disjointed from his base to his release, his deceleration near non-existent, and his runner and touch suffering greatly as a result.
Most of the lottery or mid-first round prospects who deliver value where they were taken are either elite movement shooters (it’s debatable if Agbaji can become that) or have developed an ancillary offensive game. Desmond Bane got the one-dribble pull-up. Saddiq Bey has great footwork, finishing and mid-post ability. Kevin Huerter is tremendous off handoffs and as a sturdy secondary creator.
Every time we try to project what Agbaji’s additional role can and will be, we come up short. The ball handling is severely lacking, both in control and creativity. The functional athleticism when driving to the rim, high turnover rate for his role at Kansas and rudimentary passing acumen are all strikes against Agbaji developing into a more diverse offensive threat.
Don’t get me wrong, there’s a great deal of value in finding a 45% shooter from the corners who isn’t a negative on the defensive end. Plenty of NBA veterans carved out their careers that way. But for such a niche role, I’m not sure how valuable it is in the lottery."
"Agbaji is a fascinating prospect, one who genuinely took a great leap this year by getting great at his best skills. He has a case as the best shooter off the catch in this draft. His numbers are terrific out of spot-ups, he has NBA range, and all the indicators in terms of his shooting from 3 are strong when he’s set. But how often will he get a chance to do that in the NBA? Agbaji’s long-term ceiling all comes down to him being able to add something inside the 3-point line. He has to be able to counter heavy closeouts with the ball; otherwise, the rest of his game falls apart a bit on offense. Whether it’s as a passer, as a finisher or as a relocation pull-up shooter, Agbaji needs to be able to make something happen. The good news? The combination of 3-point spacing off the catch and his quite-good on-ball defense at least gives him a reasonable floor of being a reliable rotational wing. But he needs to grow to exceed that and be a starter."
Both of these takes are very fair and address the concerns with Agbaji... Agbaji is talented, has a beneficial skillset but is that skillset worth the 14th pick in this draft?
Ultimately, his success comes down to what else he can add to his game to make him more than just a spot-shooter who offers some resistance in man-to-man defense...
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