Re: Oden eyes Cavs, Heat
Per Wikipedia:
"The procedure is less effective in treating older patients, overweight patients, or a cartilage lesion larger than 2.5 cm.[10] Further on, chances are high that after only 1 or 2 years of the surgery symptoms start to return as the fibrocartilage wears away, forcing the patient to reengage in articular cartilage repair."
Yes, at 285 pounds Oden falls into the "overweight" category, and I wouldn't doubt that he's in the "lesion larger than 2.5 cm" category as well. His weight combined with the demands of NBA basketball also mean that 1-2 years for the average Joe probably become a few months for Oden.
"...microfracture techniques do not fill in the chondral defect fully, forming fibrocartilage rather than hyaline cartilage. Fibrocartilage is not as mechanically sound as hyaline cartilage; it is much denser and unable to withstand the demands of everyday activities as well as the original cartilage and is thus at higher risk of breaking down."
Again, we're talking about a procedure that, in the best case, allows a normal-weight person to lead a normal, pain-free life for a few years. Oden's natural, strong cartilage was shot by the time he finished college. Replace that with this "not as mechanically sound" cartilage, and I give him 3 months tops.
Bottom line: knees get worse, not better, over time. If, optimistically, there's a 50% chance he's healthy enough to play right now, there's a slim-to-none chance he'll still be healthy in a few years when we're hoping to compete. Unless he literally plays 10 minutes a game, 50 games a season, what little weakened cartilage there is in his knees will be gone again before you know it. He may get in 5 or 10 or even 20 games "healthy" and put up semi-decent numbers, but don't be fooled. Then there'll be the "Oden experienced discomfort in his left knee during practice today" and "Oden will not play tonight as a precaution" and then "Oden is out indefinitely" and then more surgery, or he'll just retire.