Out of the Rafters's Analysis of the Trade Deadline (LONG)

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Kevin Martin is VERY VERY overrated. It is being proven he makes his team worse. He does two things well..shoot threes and get free throws. Can't pass, not a good finisher unless he is getting fouled and a terrible defender. The only way I would go for Martin is if we were trading Mo and moving Delonte in as starter at PG. We can't have a Mo-Martin backcourt, we would be abused on defense.

My list would be:

Jamison/Miller combo--would help us on offense, not sure how it would go on defense though.

Iggy--we would probably have to take back Dally or Brand though--Iggy is a good athlete, can play the 2 or 3, which would be nice as i could see some Shaq-Lebron-Iggy-West-Mo lineups.

AK47-- I like him better than David West for two reasons, he is a better defender and he can play both the 3 and the 4. His eFG% on jump shots is higher than West. AK47 would give us more flexibility with our lineups---IE: he could play some minutes at SF when Lebron rests and Andy and Shaq or Z are in. If we got Ronnie Brewer with him, does anyone like that combo?

Murphy- Quick note about his offensive rebounding, he spends most of his time at the three point line, thus it is very difficult to be in position for offensive rebounds. If we had him closer to the basket at times, he would be a very good offensive rebounder. His shooting numbers are just amazing, if he is open at certain spots it is almost automatic...which means his man HAS to guard him out to the three point line, which opens the key up for Lebron even more. Not sure we can hide him on defense though? He is very good rebounder, last year he got 30%+ of the available defensive boards when he was on the court, that is very impressive.

Another combo deal that may make some sense would be Jason Richardson and Channing Fry. Fry has been put on the bench because a defensive combo of Stat and Fry is not a good one..here Fry would do fine in between Shaq and LBJ and the kid can shoot the ball. Richardson can get his own shot, pretty good three point shooter...coming here with his athletism he may ever buy into playing some defense??

I also like Maggette, I know he is not a popular guy around here, but he has played very very well this year...good scorer, tough player, I think he could fit in with our overall mindset here. He could play some three while Lebron slides to play some 2 and 4....

There are TONS of options out there, hope we maximize our assets and get the best fit.

Great post. Ronnie Brewer is a name that has just hit the rumor mill recently, and I should add him to this group.

Jason Richardson and Channing Frye is another combo worth adding to my list... while I don't like Richardson, the Suns missing the playoffs and blowing it up is very possible, especially with Sarver as the owner.

If I have time I'll add Maggette as well (so you can see why he won't fit in with us at all :chuckles: ).

Very good post. These are the kinds of posts I love hearing from and make me think even more about my original post.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Awesome post, great breakdown...this is print material worthy!!!

For what it's worth I voted for David West...contract, length, age, shooting and pick and pop play.

Haha, thanks. I actually had people encouraging me to try and catch on with a certain online news source after my Preliminary Offseason Analysis. If you want to dig up that thread, go for it. I think I have three separate posts in there that are each almost as long as my first one in this one.

I probably shouldn't have worded the poll the way I did (I threw that in at the end) because, thinking about it, if I could add any one player to the Cavs' roster, it would be Iggy.

However, if you're asking me who the smartest choice for trading for at the deadline would be, Miller and Jamison would be right up there due to fit, contract, likelihood of being traded, and what the team would ask for in return.

 

[AvonCavsFan]

Great post. Ronnie Brewer is a name that has just hit the rumor mill recently, and I should add him to this group.

Jason Richardson and Channing Frye is another combo worth adding to my list... while I don't like Richardson, the Suns missing the playoffs and blowing it up is very possible, especially with Sarver as the owner.

If I have time I'll add Maggette as well (so you can see why he won't fit in with us at all :chuckles: ).

Very good post. These are the kinds of posts I love hearing from and make me think even more about my original post.

Thanks...not as good as yours though!

In the next post you mention Jamison/Miller as easiest to get maybe...I have played with the trade machines and it is tough getting contracts to match without us sending out a ton of players. I am not including Wally in any scenario, but are you thinking he would be part of that deal?

 

[rabman_gold]

I know this sounds like a tough deal for you, Rafters, but your analysis post is way too damn good to put to waste. Look how many people appreciated it. If it's not enough time to work on it, that's okay, but would you mind adding and updating it from time to time. If not, it's fine.

I trust this article of yours for who comes to Cleveland. You mentioned Shaq and his tangibles and pretty much was able to predict the future over and over. You don't miss a beat and you usually are spot on.

You must be able to read Ferry's mind huh ?

 

[theSwayze]

"In order to solve both our needs at SG and PF, the trade I'd most like to see Ferry pull of would be to help the Wizards in their firesale. We take back Mike Miller and Antawn Jamison by using Z and Wally. Now, the Wizards could add in the bad contracts of DeShawn Stevenson or Andray Blatche, or ask for picks or Hickson. Either way, I think that acquiring these two players really puts us over the top."

That would be just surreal. Surreal and nauseating.

 

[staycoolbruh]

Iggy all day, he is young he would a really nice fit for this team! Mo-Iggy-LBJ core is Awesome! Just think about it!

I would not mind Jamison, but not good as of an option, considering the long term benefits! He is as old as LeBron(25).

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Thanks...not as good as yours though!

In the next post you mention Jamison/Miller as easiest to get maybe...I have played with the trade machines and it is tough getting contracts to match without us sending out a ton of players. I am not including Wally in any scenario, but are you thinking he would be part of that deal?

Yes, Wally signed and traded would be an integral part of that deal.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I know this sounds like a tough deal for you, Rafters, but your analysis post is way too damn good to put to waste. Look how many people appreciated it. If it's not enough time to work on it, that's okay, but would you mind adding and updating it from time to time. If not, it's fine.

I trust this article of yours for who comes to Cleveland. You mentioned Shaq and his tangibles and pretty much was able to predict the future over and over. You don't miss a beat and you usually are spot on.

You must be able to read Ferry's mind huh ?

I appreciate it Rabman. I'll try to keep it updated.

I can't read Ferry's mind and I don't have any insider information. I just get lucky

"In order to solve both our needs at SG and PF, the trade I'd most like to see Ferry pull of would be to help the Wizards in their firesale. We take back Mike Miller and Antawn Jamison by using Z and Wally. Now, the Wizards could add in the bad contracts of DeShawn Stevenson or Andray Blatche, or ask for picks or Hickson. Either way, I think that acquiring these two players really puts us over the top."

That would be just surreal. Surreal and nauseating.

We'd cut him instantly, tanking his salary next season if we couldn't find another team that would want him.

 

[AvonCavsFan]

I know some people like Kevin Martin, but I want to address why I think he is over rated.

IF he was so good, his team would do something better when he was on the floor. This year, the Kings score more and give up less when he is off the floor. The last few years he did improve the Kings offense when he was in the game, but in each year the defense was 4 to 6 pts per 100 possessions worse with him on the court. I really want nothing to do with him on our team, he does not make his team better. He may score some points, but if you do NOTHING else on the floor then it doesn't matter.

 

[fireman937]

Nothing to add to your analysis but wanted to give you props for taking the time to post this. Great Job!

 

[VicDiMoneJr]

Rafters, very nice work on the analysis. Never thought about the Cavs trying to get Jamison AND Mike Miller from the Wiz. I'm a big Wages of Wins fans, Dave Berri conveniently posted analysis on every player in the league at the 41 game mark.

Midway Point

Some interesting snippets from his analysis:

# Shifting our focus to the players… the Most Productive Player in the league at the midpoint is LeBron James. King James has already produced 13.8 wins this season, and he is on pace to finish with 27.7. This means that LeBron has already produced more wins – and is on pace to finish with more Wins Produced – than the Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and New Jersey Nets.

# LeBron is obviously the most productive small forward. Here are the most productive players at each of the other four positions: PG: Chris Paul (9.8 Wins Produced), SG: Andre Iguodala (8.0 Wins Produced), PF: Marcus Camby (11.8 Wins Produced), C: Dwight Howard (10.0 Wins Produced).

Using the list in the poll, and adding Richardson, Frye, and Brewer, I compiled a table, sorted by Wins Produced per 48:

Looking at the list there's some solid talent. (According to Berri's metrics, anyone with a WP48 over .100 is considered above average.) IMO I think if we could get Iguodala, it would be a huge pickup. I think he could definitely play a nice Pippen role here on the team. Granted he doesn't shoot well from the outside (33% behind the arc for his career), I feel like his athleticism could really be an asset on the defensive side. I'm curious how Berri classifies positions, because I know it was mentioned earlier that Iggy played a lot at the 3, and Camby is more of a Center than a PF. Also, if Murphy can be had for just a 30 day vacation from Z, that would be another great deal. As far as his defense being suspect, I feel confident that Brown could get more out of him defensively.

If anyone's interested in more from the list I have Berri's entire list in Excel, and can update the graphic.

P.S. Rafters I love the reference to Correct Writing in the sig, it's a shame that text isn't a best seller on Amazon!

 

[WitnessMoBoobie]

I know some people like Kevin Martin, but I want to address why I think he is over rated.

IF he was so good, his team would do something better when he was on the floor. This year, the Kings score more and give up less when he is off the floor. The last few years he did improve the Kings offense when he was in the game, but in each year the defense was 4 to 6 pts per 100 possessions worse with him on the court. I really want nothing to do with him on our team, he does not make his team better. He may score some points, but if you do NOTHING else on the floor then it doesn't matter.

Although I agree with your analysis in regards to the Kings, I respectfully disagree that he would make us worse. The Kings are built very differently compared to us and do not have Lebron to take the pressure off of him. Currently there may be an issue deciding who is "the man" in Sactown (him or Evans), but he would know his role if he came to Cleveland. He would be delegated to a spot up shooter on the Cavs. He would not be brought in for defense. He could play with the second unit with Mo or Delonte when Bron is on the bench or possibly late in games when we need a basket. He is another very good shooter that we can surround Lebron with.

I am leaning more towards Iggy at this point, but I feel Martin would make us scary as well.

 

[AvonCavsFan]

Although I agree with your analysis in regards to the Kings, I respectfully disagree that he would make us worse. The Kings are built very differently compared to us and do not have Lebron to take the pressure off of him. Currently there may be an issue deciding who is "the man" in Sactown (him or Evans), but he would know his role if he came to Cleveland. He would be delegated to a spot up shooter on the Cavs. He would not be brought in for defense. He could play with the second unit with Mo or Delonte when Bron is on the bench or possibly late in games when we need a basket. He is another very good shooter that we can surround Lebron with.

I am leaning more towards Iggy at this point, but I feel Martin would make us scary as well.

So how many minutes a game you have him playing? I am not worried about his offense, it is his defense that is very bad and that part has been bad since he got to the league. A Mo-Martin backcourt would be a sieve on the defensive end of the court.

I would LOVE Iggy---my thought is to then start Shaq-Lebron-Iggy-Parker-Mo with Andy, West, Boobie and Jawad off the bench....a defensive lineup of Andy-Lebron-Iggy-Parker-West would be nice.

 

[Taiter]

I like Iguodala too. He has ability to create. However, I'm concerned with the proverbial "SG who can't shoot," especially as a guy gets older. Larry Hughes and Eric Snow were enough, although Iggy is better than either of those guys.

 

[Powerslave]

Whatever happened with Gay Watch? Maybe Ferry will slip in from behind and surprise the Grizzlies with a deal. Then go shopping for some tight pants.