Maybe you are able to bring back Ellington for the 1 year QO ($3.1M) and not worry about a multi-year extension for him at this point.
I think this is likely
Then maybe in 2014 you decline the option on the final year of Gee's contract, and assuming you haven't taken on additional salary (via trades using your cap space or through other FA signings), maybe you are able to exercise the option on Varejao's final year AND still have max cap space. It will be cutting it close though, depending on exactly where the Cavs' draft picks fall, and where the salary cap figure comes in, and how much Speights gets paid. My back of the envelope calculations put the team salary at just about $40M, but this figure excludes Gee and includes only 9 players (Varejao, Irving, Thompson, Waiters, Zeller, 2013 first rounder #1, 2013 first round #2, 2014 first rounder, and Speights), which cuts it very close considering a 10 year max salary in 2014 will be at least $20M.
Without Speights and Gee on the books in 2014 ... and assuming Varejao's $9+million is still fully on the books ... we'd have $33,327,195 committed to Varejao, Kyrie, Tristan, Dion, Zeller, the 8th pick in 2013, the 25th pick in 2013, the 17th pick in 2014 ... giving us 8 players against the cap. I think this is what Douglar's table in a previous post indicated as well. With just those 8 players, you'd also need to have 4 Minimum Salary cap holds ($507,336 each). So the 8 players and 4 cap holds would give us $35,356,539. If the salary cap is set at $60M, we'd have $24,643,461 in cap space. With that $60M salary cap, a 10 year Max Free Agent salary would begin at $21,000,000 for someone like LeBron/Wade/Bosh (***note: that number would be higher for guys like Kobe, Dirk, Melo, etc. because of their previous year's salary).
So we sign Bosh ( :chuckles: ) that summer for a salary of $21M, giving us a payroll of $54,327,195 for Bosh, Varejao, Kyrie, Tristan, Dion, Zeller, 8th pick, 25th pick, 17th pick. Would still need to add 3 Minimum Salary player holds to $54,327,195 ... so we'd have $55,849,203 against a $60M cap. The difference (plus, I think, one of the Min Salary slots or $4,658,133), then, is what we could afford to already have towards a guy like Speights.
In this example, getting back to this summer ... I believe the most you could offer Speights is $4.9M in 2013 .. $4,641,148 in 2014 .. $4.9M in 2015 .. and $5,120,500 in 2016 .. 4 years, $19,561,648
So my guess is they re-sign Speights for (non-tax payer) MLE type money ($5-6M/yr), re-sign or otherwise bring back Ellington, Livingston, and Walton, try to sign Greg Oden guaranteed for 2013-14 with a team option for 2014-15 (this complicates things further, but if he stays healthy and plays well and you want to exercise the option in 2014, you find some way to carve out the cap space), and bring in a few other guys (plus maybe actually draft someone in the second round using their own pick or Orlando's) to compete with Kevin Jones for a couple roster spots.
I almost definitely don't see Walton, Casspi, Selby and Boobie coming back. I'd take Speights at the 4yr, $19.56M deal above if he opts out, but wouldn't go much past that (2014 cap space AND talent wise). I think Ellington will stay on with his Option. Jones can come back and battle it out in camp. Like your thinking on Oden. Don't think we use either our 2nd or Orlando's. Can see Grant packaging them along with Miles and/or cap space for a vet like Jefferson, Salmons, or Marion and a pick during the draft. I like Livingston for another year, and would give him a decent amount (more than he might be worth) to keep him around on a 1 year contract.
Irving/Livingston
Waiters/Ellington
Gee/Vet FA
Thompson/Speights/Jones
Zeller/Varejao/Oden
Toss in a couple of #1 picks and I think we're in the playoffs. We'd also have the ammunition (and better understanding of what the summer of 2014 could hold) to add some talent and continue to augment the roster.
EDIT: Should have mentioned another consideration mentioned by others...the 90% minimum team salary rule, which is another reason for re-signing Speights. If you decide not to re-sign him because he is too expensive, you are going to have to sign someone else. Maybe you can find a vet willing to sign a one year deal, but if that's your goal, the market is going to be very limited (I'm sure Jamison will be available), and it's going to be difficult filling out the roster with enough salary to get to the 90% threshold.
You don't need to hit the 90%. It will be charged at the end of the season, and the difference would go back to the players.
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