Derek
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I'll put my Crohn's riddled immune system on the line as well
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Rudy Gobert
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The Oi
Ahhhh chachachacha
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I swear my brother in law has this or something similar. I’ve never met anyone that shits more often than him.
I’ll also throw in his digestive system.
adam81king
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What does Rudy Gobert do for a VERY young and rebuilding team thats still devoid of real talent?
Derek
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Probably makes us an above .500 team
adam81king
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With what it takes to get Rudy Gobert, you're GROSSLY overrating him if you think he makes whatever is left a .500+ team.
Derek
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I haven't once advocated for us trading for Gobert.
I'm just explaining the appeal.
He's one of the most impactful players in the NBA.
Murph
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I feel like this makes some sense for both teams. My favorite part is it gives us a legitimate reason to move Garland to the bench, but on a short-term basis. Then we get another huge expiring in a couple years with Conley's contract.
Love’s contract is a huge liability. I don’t think anyone’s taking that contract until it’s expiring.
I think a more realistic trade would be Drummond and a 1st rounder for Gobert and filler. But I don’t think the Cavs should part with this year's lottery pick...maybe next year’s. It’s still very risky for the Cavs. You never know who those lottery picks are going to turn into.
The safest bet would be to try to get Drummond to play as closely to how Gobert plays as possible. But that’s a tough assignment for JB.
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Derek
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The Cavs wouldn't be the ones turning down that deal.
Murph
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Hmmmm.... Let me run this logic by you. Most draft classes have at least one or more Hall of Famers. Now as impactful as Gobert is defensively, it is unlikely he will be a HOFer.
So the questions are, what are the odds the Cavs come up with one of those HOFers in this draft (10-1, 5-1, 3-1?), and is it worth the risk to acquire Gobert?
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adam81king
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Is he really, though? Utah seems to have pretty similar success whether he's there, or not. And doesn't lead to all that much winning (at least not in the postseason).
Derek
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Yeah, he definitely is. I'd be curious as to what numbers you're looking at that say they have similar success whether he's there or not because everything I see points strongly to the contrary.
2015-16:
with Gobert on the court, they outscored opponents by 4.7 points per 100 possessions, that point differential translates to a 53 win pace
with Gobert off the court, their opponents outscored them by 1.2 points per 100 possessions, that point differential translates to a 37 win pace
2016-17:
with Gobert on the court, they outscored opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions, that point differential translates to a 61 win pace
with Gobert off the court, their opponents outscored them by 6.5 points per 100 possessions, that point differential translates to a 25 win pace
2017-18:
with Gobert on the court, they outscored opponents by 9.4 points per 100 possessions, that point differential translates to a 64 win pace
with Gobert off the court, their opponents outscored them by 0.3 points per 100 possessions, that point differential translates to a 40 win pace
2018-19:
with Gobert on the court, they outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions, that point differential translates to a 60 win pace
with Gobert off the court, they outscored opponents by 4.9 points per 100 possessions, that point differential translates to a 54 win pace
2019-20:
with Gobert on the court, they outscored opponents by 6.5 points per 100 possessions, that point differential translates to a 57 win pace
with Gobert off the court, their opponents outscored them by 4.5 points per 100 possessions, that point differential translates to a 30 win pace
I don't think it's a stretch to say that the Jazz would go from fighting for HC advantage in the WC playoffs to an early lotto team if they lost Gobert.
I think it's pretty likely Gobert is a Hall of Famer.
Regardless of that though, if you're hoarding picks because you MIGHT draft a Hall of Famer, you're probably going to end up on the short side of a lot of deals. The odds of drafting a Hall of Famer are FAR lower than you're thinking.
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Murph
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So I looked it up. In the 25 year period from 1991 to 2016, there were a total of 28 HOFer drafted with the top 6 picks. I had to guess at a few like KAT and Ben Simmons. I didn’t try to project for the last 3 years. For example will Ja Morrant be a HOFer? Probably. Deandre Ayton? Trae Young? Who knows?
Anyway, here are my best guesses.
10 #1 picks: Shaq, Iverson, Duncan, Ming, Lebron, Dwight Howard, Kyrie, AD, KAT and Simmons.
4 #2 picks: Mourning, Kidd, Aldridge, Durant
5 #3 picks: Hill, Pau Gasol, Carmelo, Harden, Embiid
3 #4 picks: Bosh, Paul, Westbrook
5 #5 picks: Love, Wade, Carter, Ray Allen, Garnett
1 #6 pick: Lillard
Now, the Cavs have a 14% of picking 1st, 13.4% of picking 2nd, 12.7% 3rd, 12% 4th, 27.8% 5th and 20% 6th.
If you do all the math, based on that 25 year sample size, the Cavs have a 17.5% chance of picking a HOFer this year, or about a 1 in every 5.7 chance.
To me, that’s well worth hanging onto the pick.
Furthermore, if you did that trade, you would only rent Gobert for a year, as his contract is due at the end of the 20-21 season. After that, he’s eligible for a super max contract, which would blow the salary structure, even if the Cavs could re-sign him. Gobert is eligible for a 5 year $253 million contract.
Add to that losing Drummond,who the Cavs might be able to sign more easily to a much cheaper contract than Gobert.
All things considered, there is no way I do that trade.
Anyway, here are my best guesses.
10 #1 picks: Shaq, Iverson, Duncan, Ming, Lebron, Dwight Howard, Kyrie, AD, KAT and Simmons.
4 #2 picks: Mourning, Kidd, Aldridge, Durant
5 #3 picks: Hill, Pau Gasol, Carmelo, Harden, Embiid
3 #4 picks: Bosh, Paul, Westbrook
5 #5 picks: Love, Wade, Carter, Ray Allen, Garnett
1 #6 pick: Lillard
Now, the Cavs have a 14% of picking 1st, 13.4% of picking 2nd, 12.7% 3rd, 12% 4th, 27.8% 5th and 20% 6th.
If you do all the math, based on that 25 year sample size, the Cavs have a 17.5% chance of picking a HOFer this year, or about a 1 in every 5.7 chance.
To me, that’s well worth hanging onto the pick.
Furthermore, if you did that trade, you would only rent Gobert for a year, as his contract is due at the end of the 20-21 season. After that, he’s eligible for a super max contract, which would blow the salary structure, even if the Cavs could re-sign him. Gobert is eligible for a 5 year $253 million contract.
Add to that losing Drummond,who the Cavs might be able to sign more easily to a much cheaper contract than Gobert.
All things considered, there is no way I do that trade.
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Derek
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The issue with this line of thinking is that you're treating all draft classes as equal. There is no Shaq, AI, Duncan, LeBron, etc in this draft so you can throw that 17.5% out the door.
As I said, Gobert has far more value than an expiring contract and a top 5 pick. I agree it doesn't make sense for the Cavs to pursue him at his price tag given where our organization currently is, but let's not pretend it's really because the price is too high.
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Murph
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Two things, then I’ll shut up. First, aside from Shaq, Lebron and a few others, the draft is a complete crap shoot. No one can say this is a strong draft or a weak draft. Wiseman or Ball or Hayes have the potential to be HOFers, IMO.
You can’t look at a draft in hindsight. If drafts were so obvious, there would be no Andre Bargnanis, Anthony Bennetts or Darko Milicices
And Lillard and Curry would never fall to 6th and 7th.
Second, someone has to get through to Drummond. This whole discussion makes one thing obvious. Drummond needs to play like a poor man’s Rudy Gobert, not a poor man’s Joel Embiid. He could be so valuable just rebounding, blocking shots, setting picks, rolling to the basket, scoring on offensive rebounds and put backs, and passing out of the post.
Instead, he’s wasting his talents trying to handle the ball and shooting 3s.
Everyone else can see it. Why can’t Drummond?
You can’t look at a draft in hindsight. If drafts were so obvious, there would be no Andre Bargnanis, Anthony Bennetts or Darko Milicices
And Lillard and Curry would never fall to 6th and 7th.
Second, someone has to get through to Drummond. This whole discussion makes one thing obvious. Drummond needs to play like a poor man’s Rudy Gobert, not a poor man’s Joel Embiid. He could be so valuable just rebounding, blocking shots, setting picks, rolling to the basket, scoring on offensive rebounds and put backs, and passing out of the post.
Instead, he’s wasting his talents trying to handle the ball and shooting 3s.
Everyone else can see it. Why can’t Drummond?
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