WARNING: LONG POST AHEAD; ALL MIGHT NOT BE RELEVANT; most importantly, i am no expert, but will give my opinion/advice when i can.
Solid Snake said:
I was looking at the market last night. And DAMNNNN, I believe it was Exxon Oil that went up something like 82%. Maybe it was some other company, but whoever it was, that is a sick jump.
I was looking into getting personally started with E-Trade. Which one of these sites out there do you think is better and why?
I do the market, but I am not personally involved. I got a really great middle guy doing it for me. I mean, I make the money and all that but I'm not happy because I still dont know the ins and outs of it.
So, I want to start solo now. Give me some advice. You got and AOL IM?
Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM; graph:
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#cha...ine;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined) has not doubled recently, but the last 3 months has been great, going up approx. 15%. When you look at growth, coming out over 10% a year is good. It just seems to be the bar, not a particularly high bar, but a good measuring stick. So back to XOM, 15% in 3 mos. is great...
I use scottrade bc it's $7 a trade. But their research interface is nothing special, IMO, so I do the research on finance.yahoo.com. There you can find essentials: P/E, news, competitors, balance sheets, etc. The drawback is their quotes are 20 mins delayed, which is pretty standard for free sights. So, if I need an up to the minute quote, I use my scottrade, but for general info, yahoo (a buddy of mine likes the google one, which might be better for the beginner, since you don't have to know the ticker (e.g. "XOM"), but can use it or the name (e.g. "XOM" or "Exxon Mobil Corp.").
As far as finding the next big thing, it would be great, but when you start, you might want to get a feel for the market. Me personally, I love my stock picks, but my entry points sucked. They will (and have) gotten better with experience. What this means is that when you say "I want to buy under armour", you watch it for 2 weeks and decide when you are going to do it, you don't just do it based on what it is worth on the day you decide you want to buy it. So, when you don't own it, it goes down (goes on sale), and you pull the trigger. THEN, if it goes down some more, you buy more, so your average price/share is less than your OG price. If it goes up, you make $. This implies that if you want to buy $X worth of Y stock, you buy 1/3 (or 1/5) X at a decent price then see what happens. Then, say for every 4% it goes down, you double down. If you didn't pick a bust, even if it returns to your original purchase price, you will have made $ (minus transaction fees). I really recommend Real Money by Jim Cramer and watching Mad Money. He isn't the best (at least, he isn't the consensus best), but his book is entertaining, simple, and best of all useful...
As far as your middle man, that is awesome, as long as he is making you a good return (approx. >= 10%/year). Just keep asking questions and learning if you can. He might catch you a fish, but you want to learn how to fish, right? You want to eat for life, not just for lunch... I don't know the fees with your dude, but I would 1) open up a play-money portfolio for 3 mos. and start with 1/2 the amount of money that you have to invest in the real world then 2) if it doesn't go well, try another 3 mos. after you have read another book OR 2a) if it does go well, take 1/2 the money out of your real account (or less) and try some yourself. Don't necessarily take the same stocks that you did your fake account with though, but don't be against it entirely either (gee that helped).
OK now the google thing. Google grew 70% in the last year. Their P/E is 60 (their forward P/E is 35). What's P/E? It stands for price to earnings or price divided by earnings in a math sense. Easiest through an example: would you buy a cashmere sweater off of me, brand new, for $30 or would you buy a thrift store one off of me for $10? All smartassedness aside, you would buy the cashmere, but why? Because it's the one with the best value. It's cheaper, relatively. That's what a P/E is. The average stock has a P/E of 12 (I thinK?) but like cavstalk alluded to, GROWTH can affect P/E incredibly. Growth is LeCrack. So when you want to assess how they interact, as a simple (overly simple) measure, divide the P/E by the growth and if your number is less than 1, you are gravy. Don't buy stocks on this advice, but what i mean is that you pay for growth, but it can pay you. So back to P/E. The price is what you pay for the stock. Google is sitting around 480. The milestone that cdt talked about was 500, but it has backed off since. The E is earnings. It is how much money the company makes and puts into each share of its stock. Soooo, translation: if the price is high, and the earnings are small, the P/E will be high, BUT if the company is growing (think: barry bonds from rookie year until now), then most of the time the E (earnings) will increase, thus making the P/E less. Buying a stock to grow is probably like buying a flower bulb. It might cost you for something that looks like a peice of dog poo, but you are investing in the future, the growth, that will pay you handsomely. Did that make sense?
James - get started soon. Just read a book about the basics and start learning about what you have. Even if you don't have time/interest to become your own investor, you will be a more educated shareholder, which can only benefit you down the road.
cavstalk - awesome awesome awesome. One thing for starters though: as a young adult, we need to be more aggressive with our $ than somebody who is almost at retirement. We have the time to make it back if we lose it, and we probably don't have as much to lose. It's just a general rule to the game, and since I am fairly young, I love it. As far as picks - you have the right idea. Pick 5-7 well researched stocks. Allocate 25% to high risk/reward stocks, since you know you want to and if you don't, then you will end up "going on tilt" anyway, so may as well pay the piper. I highly recommend force protection inc. Check out forceprotection.net . They make heavily armoured vehicles, their growth is at 530%, but most importantly, not one soldier has died from an explosion or gunfire at ANY of their vehicles. One of their higher ups (VP?) is a former military man, so that's always a plus. They will replace the HMMVV's abroad as far as military vehicles are concerned. One could counter with "but we are going to pull out of the ME with the democratic govt." but I would say "1) that could make a juicier buying opp. and 2) we might stay there, but take extra precautions to make sure our troops don't die. Aren't we there for the oil anyway?" I think I am going to put a limit order on them for 13.15 and see where that takes me. For those unfirmiliar, a limit order is saying "if anyone will ever sell the stock for X, I will buy it for that amount at Y quantity." It just means that you don't pay market value, and market value can rip you off if you aren't careful. But FRPT (or on yahoo finance FRPT.OB) is a speculative, high risk play, but I stand by it, especially if it drops to the low 13's. My main stocks are above, but I got rid of SAIC (ticker: SAI) b/c their P/E is way high for defense. OATS is next to go: I have a limit sell order just below 15 on that.
I don't have an AIM or that junk, but PM me, anyone, and I will help if I can.
James brings up some valid arguements against google, but they aren't just spending money. They are making it too. Tons. Every time we search, they collect. They have great management. They are still growing. And re YouTube, I think they are going to run commercials before you watch videos or every couple of videos or something. I love the acquisition though. Google might go to 600, but it's all about the percentage gain, so from 480 to 6 bills is 120 makes 25%, which is great, but how long will it take? I only bring this up so people understand that percentages are what makes money. E.g. - if you have 1200 shares of WWAT.OB at $.40, it will cost you $480, and if it goes up $.08, you will have made 20%, which is the same as google going up to $576. The math was quick and might be wrong, but the idea is right regardless. Google, IMO, is headed to at least 550, but you can play a company that rides with google, DIVX, and make more.
AMAC - good stocks. Diversified, and ass-kicking. SBUX is still good, IMO. The talking heads will drag it down b/c the U.S. growth is reaching a plateau, but their abroad growth is still crack. The fundies (mutual funds) aren't going to drop this one any time soon, so I would stick with. Gamestop, nice. Goodyear is one of those less-glorious, well performing stocks. Too bad I can't buy something so smart and simple, lol.
James - I don't remember what the deal was with WP, and obviously I am not going to change your mind about it, but I would tread lightly with any company who is still mostly vested in the printed news. I would sell, but I wouldn't tell you to. I would just try to find figures on readership for the last 5 years, bc their advertising prices are based on readership, then I would see what they are doing to combat the dropping readership, since I am not the only one who realizes that printed papers are fading. Check out their growth too, then pose your Q's from your research to your parents/broker, and see what they have to say. Not trying to press you here, just an idea. Do what you will, but it wouldn't hurt either way.
In yahoo finance, fool.com always places articles, and somehow they inevitably come back to fool.com and how you should pay them. They have some good blanket advice that is free, but I haven't paid for advice. I am not against it, but it gets old after they say "small market cap stocks are the money makers, you just have to find the right ones... at fool.com, our stocks rock, so try us, then buy us, blahblahblah."
n00bs:
1. Research. This is real money now. This isn't grand theft auto. Put in some work on the research side. And I don't mean saying "X stock is growing and my friends shop there." Read a damn book. You can borrow the mofo for free at the burberry AKA library (and BTW, the library is a great resource in any community. Big ups). Just don't be an idiot about investing. Go read Real Money, hell ask for it for the holidays. But this ain't man vs. wild, which is dope. Don't make any sort of plunge without a gameplan.
2. Coming from an idiot, this stuff isn't that hard to learn/understand. The biggest blunder would be being so intimidated that you do nothing to start the learning process. Then you will really feel like an idiot when you could have your money working for you, but instead you have it in a bank getting 3%. LOL at your 3%, you 3%-ass-bitch.
3. The market is SOOOOOOO fun. This is like gambling for the big boys, but when you lose/win, it doesn't all go away or double. It is like an ongoing battle, but you can win if you take your time and do things right.
Ok, am tired. There is too much to type, but I think this is a good starting point,
Dagg