Matchup Advantages
QB: Arkansas
RB: OSU
WR: Arkansas
OL: OSU
DL: Arkansas
LB: OSU
DB: OSU
ST: OSU
Coach: OSU
Ohio State offense vs. Arkansas defense
• It is not wise to turn your front four loose on Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor because it will eventually lead to gaping holes for him to exploit with his feet. It's also not sound football to blitz Ohio State's offense too often because doing so leaves your secondary vulnerable versus an above-average receiving corps led by DeVier Posey and Dane Sanzenbacher. When studying tape of the games in which Pryor struggled (versus Miami, Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State and Iowa) the common trend is that opposing defenses create the illusion of chaos without actually leaving themselves vulnerable. In other words, a heavy mixture of zone blitzes, slants, twists and stunts will lead to Pryor feeling as if the pocket is collapsing around him when oftentimes that's not the case. Both of his interceptions versus Iowa and several of his errant throws versus Wisconsin were the result of Pryor's bailing out of the pocket prematurely and throwing the ball up for grabs. Arkansas defensive coordinator Willie Robinson should pick up on this trend and scheme accordingly.
• For all the talk of the quarterback duel between Pryor and Arkansas' Ryan Mallett, Buckeyes RB Dan Herron could very easily emerge as the 2011 Sugar Bowl MVP.Arkansas has struggled to stop the run and there are a couple of reasons it matches up poorly versus the Buckeyes' ground attack. First, the Buckeyes have jelled into a very technically sound run-blocking group up front. LG Justin Boren and C Mike Brewster are the best of the bunch and FB Zach Boren has emerged as a human wrecking ball. This group should do a good job of generating creases for Herron -- and occasionally Pryor -- to attack. Secondly, Ohio State's multiple-look ground game makes it difficult for the opponent to pick up on tendencies, which is what the Razorbacks will need to do to offset their personnel disadvantage in this facet of the game. Herron is a big reason for Ohio State's formation and scheme versatility. One of the underrated aspects of his game is his ability to locate holes and time his cuts in all different alignments and schemes. From single-back to I-formation to the shotgun zone-read to the Pistol, the Buckeyes ask Herron to carry the ball from as many different launching points as any back in the country and he has proved more than capable from all of them.
• Depending on coach Jim Tressel's decision regarding the playing time of Pryor, Posey and Herron, Ohio State fans could be in for some old-fashioned "Tressel Ball" in New Orleans. If that's the case, Tressel will need to rely on a special teams group that suffered through several breakdowns early in the season but made significant strides down the stretch. The team had two kicks blocked in the first six outings but have not given up a block during the second half of the season. It also surrendered three returns for touchdowns (two punts and one kickoff) during the first seven games but none in the last five. PK Devin Barclay settled into the full-time role and finished the regular season connecting on 19 of 22 field goal attempts, including a long of 48 yards. Barclay nailed all six attempts in the final three games. Jordan Hall has come on strong in the return game as well. Hall racked up 145 yards on three kickoff returns in his last two outings, including an 85-yard score versus Michigan. Hall will look to exploit an Arkansas kickoff return defense that ranks 111th nationally.
Key individual matchup
Arkansas WR Joe Adams vs.
Ohio State CB Chimdi Chekwa
Chekwa (6-foot, 190 pounds) has developed into one of the better cover corners in college football this season. The senior has a very good combination of size, instincts and athleticism. He is doing a better job of reading opposing receivers' routes and getting earlier jumps on throws, which has paid off in the form of six interceptions this season. Jarius Wright and Cobi Hamilton have stepped up in Greg Child's absence (season-ending injury), but Arkansas is not as deep at wide receiver as it once was and it cannot afford for Adams to be quieted by man-to-man coverage as a result. Adams needs to run impeccable routes and make tough catches with Chekwa draped all over him in order to avoid such a scenario.
Arkansas offense vs. Ohio State defense
• Ohio State's Jim Heacock is one of the more underrated defensive coordinators in the country, and as we saw in last year's Rose Bowl against Oregon, when he has time to prepare he and his staff can cripple high-powered offenses. The No. 1 priority for Ohio State's defense in this game is to get pressure on Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett, who is far less effective when forced to reset his feet and make quick decisions under fire. This season's game versus Alabama is the clearest example of Mallett's effectiveness when given time in the pocket versus when he is pressured. We went back and charted every snap of that game and found that the Crimson Tide blitzed only 27 percent of the time in the first half and Mallett burned them for 17 points. That frequency jumped to 43 percent in the second half, when Arkansas scored only three points. Overall, Mallett completed 5 of 12 passes with two interceptions and was sacked twice against the blitz, while he completed 20 of 26 with one touchdown, one interception and no sacks when facing four or fewer pass-rushers.
• Arkansas WR Cobi Hamilton is a potential X factor in this game. Hamilton is not a burner but does build speed as he goes and has the length and leaping ability to come down with the jump ball. He also has shown the ability to make the first defender miss after the catch and he is a tough runner to bring down in the open field. Hamilton's production has been very inconsistent but he has the size and acrobatic athleticism to provide some game-breaking plays if Ohio State fails to give him proper attention. In two of the team's final five games of the season -- when he had stepped into the No. 3 starter role for the injured Greg Childs -- Hamilton exploded for 274 yards and three touchdowns on 10 combined catches. But in the three other starts, Hamilton was limited to a combined seven catches for 107 yards and one score.
• Ohio State's defense does not have great size up front and its linebackers, particularly WLB Ross Homan, struggle to get off blocks. The Buckeyes' only loss of the season came against a bigger, more physical Wisconsin team that bullied their defensive front. Arkansas' offensive line is not nearly as overpowering as the Badgers' but it does have good size and was a much-improved run-blocking group during the second half of the season. Also working in Arkansas' favor is the emergence of RB Knile Davis. The 6-foot, 220-pound sophomore took over as the team's bell-cow back during the final six games of the regular season and averaged 148.2 yards on 22.3 carries per game with 12 rushing touchdowns during that span. Davis is a somewhat upright runner who hits the hole hard, shows good burst through the line of scrimmage and knows when to lower his shoulder prior to contact. The passing game is the featured part of coach Bobby Petrino's offensive attack, but more dedication to the run game might be the key to beating the Buckeyes.
Scouts' Edge
All signs point to Pryor, Posey, Herron and the other Buckeyes who have been suspended for the first five games of next season playing most of this game. If that's the case, Ohio State should come out on top. Mallett has the arm and the weapons to rack up yards through the air, but the Buckeyes will get enough pressure on the junior quarterback and force him into some game-changing mistakes. The Razorbacks are not physical enough in their run game to exploit Ohio State's lack of size up front. Pryor will make some mistakes of his own but his dual-threat ability will lead to some big plays and the Buckeyes' run game will excel.
Prediction: Buckeyes 29, Razorbacks 24