Week 8: Browns @ Seahawks 4PM

[redscoon]

They had thrown on how many straight 3rd and shorts? At least 3, no? Not sure how we can say that the defense was expecting the run there.

 

[David.]

Running the ball may have lower turnover risk bar also comes with a lower conversion probability…

Passing the ball may have a higher turnover risk but also a higher conversion probability..

If people are okay punting the ball and putting the game in the Seahawks hands if they don’t make it after a run with the way the defense got cut through like Swiss cheese then idk what to tell you..

Stefanski obviously went for the more “aggressive” call there but I don’t fault the thought process of trying to put the game away..

The odds were that the defense would hold up.

just because it didn't doesn't make the playcall any better, it was the wrong decision

 

[CBBI]

They had thrown on how many straight 3rd and shorts? At least 3, no? Not sure how we can say that the defense was expecting the run there.

They were expecting run because the Browns had run on 6 of the 7 plays on the drive, right?

 

[Liam]

I mean he marched about 60 in barely a minute, ya know?

If they managed to pin Geno in say the 5, I don’t think he gets near 60 yards in a minute. That possession is ending in a turnover, whether on downs or via an INT, imo.

That being said there’s every chance the punt goes through the endzone and it’s a different story. KS is a lot lower down on the reasons the browns lost today for me than most people, and I can live with plays like that if it comes with the territory of having an aggressive coach.

My weird logic, but I can’t be too mad at the person who took the camel to water if he decides not to drink it

 

[MirORich]

I mean he marched about 60 in barely a minute, ya know?

Going 57 yards in 79 seconds, knowing that while a TD to win it is ideal, you just need to about 20-25 yards to be in position to tie it and force OT is a much different scenario for both the offense and defense than starting at the 20 or 25 and needing to make significant yardage to even get in FG range. That leads to much different playcalling from both sides

But sure, it is a possibility. We could have punted and they could have gone 80 yards much less likely though

 

[CBBI]

Going 57 yards in 79 seconds, knowing that while a TD to win it is ideal, you just need to about 20-25 yards to be in position to tie it and force OT is a much different scenario for both the offense and defense than starting at the 20 or 25 and needing to make significant yardage to even get in FG range. That leads to much different playcalling from both sides

But sure, it is a possibility. We could have punted and they could have gone 80 yards much less likely though

Making them go 23 extra yards with like 5-7 seconds coming off on the punt just isn't that significant to me. They had a ton of time and multiple timeouts.

Just convert the first down and ice the game right then and there.

 

[redscoon]

They were expecting run because the Browns had run on 6 of the 7 plays on the drive, right?

They threw on the only other 3rd down. Besides, the idea that you were gaining yards on the ground even when Seattle was anticipating run, makes it even more obscene that you decided to put the game in PJ's hands.

 

[CBBI]

They threw on the only other 3rd down. Besides, the idea that you were gaining yards on the ground even when Seattle was anticipating run, makes it even more obscene that you decided to put the game in PJ's hands.

Yeah, but you're inclined to hate everything and everyone and we have to consider that in the evaluation here

 

[MirORich]

Making them go 23 extra yards with like 5-7 seconds coming off on the punt just isn't that significant to me. They had a ton of time and multiple timeouts.

Just convert the first down and ice the game right then and there.

Ok well if you just gloss over the situational aspects and assume all the final plays made post turnover would have been just the same than that stance makes sense

To your final sentence, running the ball could have resulted in a first down as well. Seems like you’re equating running the ball with taking a knee or spiking the ball and then punting.

Passing was no certainty
Running was no certainty

But passing came with a higher statistical probability of a turnover.

 

[CBBI]

Ok well if you just gloss over the situational aspects and assume all the final plays made post turnover would have been just the same than that stance makes sense

To your final sentence, running the ball could have resulted in a first down as well. Seems like you’re equating running the ball with taking a knee or spiking the ball and then punting.

Passing was no certainty
Running was no certainty

But passing came with a higher statistical probability of a turnover.

The odds of converting a 1D on 3rd and 3 with a pass compared to a run are higher/better/more likely than the odds of a pass on 3rd and 3 resulting in an interception.

 

[bigfoot5415]

Looking at it again, I don’t hate the call. 31 other QB’s don’t spike the ball into a defender’s helmet like a 95mph fastball.

Sure you can say “you know PJ isn’t that good so why do that?” But it’s 3 yards and you had 2 guys WIDE open. I’m more concerned at our defense letting Seattle walk down the field the last drive… but I guess it’s time to gear up for another week of fire Kevin talk, even though you were 3 yards away from being 3 and 0 with an XFL QB with two of those on the road.

Not surprising though. We are the most miserable fan base

View attachment 17659

This was the throw. Wide fucking open. I'm fine throwing on 3rd and 3 but the QB needs to be aware of his check down. That has to be the message to the QB going into a drive like this.

Hunt would have been a solid option to run but ultimately, the team didn't execute. I also wouldn't have been opposed to a TE screen knowing that they were going to bring pressure.

 

[redscoon]

This was the throw. Wide fucking open. I'm fine throwing on 3rd and 3 but the QB needs to be aware of his check down. That has to be the message to the QB going into a drive like this.

Hunt would have been a solid option to run but ultimately, the team didn't execute. I also wouldn't have been opposed to a TE screen knowing that they were going to bring pressure.

If Walker made good reads, he wouldn't be an XFL/practice squad guy. If Bickerstaff drew up a game winning 3 for Jarrett Allen, would we say it was a good play call because he was wide open even though he airballed the shot?

You have to know player's limitations and I feel like that has probably been Stefanski's biggest downfall.

 

[bigfoot5415]

If Walker made good reads, he wouldn't be an XFL/practice squad guy. If Bickerstaff drew up a game winning 3 for Jarrett Allen, would we say it was a good play call because he was wide open even though he airballed the shot?

You have to know player's limitations and I feel like that has probably been Stefanski's biggest downfall.

Hes definitely an XFL guy but it's a check down. Anyone over 6ft whose throw a fb has a 50% chance of hitting it.

 

[redscoon]

Settling for FGs in several very convertible 4th down situations sent the signal all game that Stefanski didn't trust the offense. That makes the 3rd down decision even more bizarre to me.

 

[Tlyons]

I know it's hard to quantify, but I'm not sure the Seahawks slice us up on that drive if not for the interception hyping them up.

If we don't get the first down running it, we pin them down at the very least 20 yards farther back than they got the ball after the pick. That's more plays for our defense to make a play and the Seahawks haven't had the emotional boost of the interception.

Like I said, it's hard to quantify that type of stuff, just wanted to hit it from that angle.