Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I suppose what concerns me about Okoro is comparing him to another rookie, Dean Wade. They play different positions and Wade is four years older, but they're both new to the NBA and Okoro was a top five pick whereas Wade wasn't even drafted.

Looking at their numbers compared to other players at their positions is kind of shocking.

Points per shot attempt: Okoro ranks in the 18th percentile among "wings", Wade is in the 97th percentile among "forwards".

Assists per usage rate: Wade 75th percentile; Okoro 28th.

Effective field goal percentage: Wade 73rd percentile; Okoro 22nd.

Three-point percentage: Wade 98th percentile; Okoro 17th.

Offensive rebound percentage: Wade 83rd percentile; Okoro 59th.

So in the offensive categories, Wade is much better relative to his position group than Okoro across the board - shooting, assists, and rebounding. In some cases the differences are huge.

Defensively, Okoro has the advantage in steal percentage, ranking in the 66th percentile compared to the 24th percentile for Wade. But Okoro commits more fouls than Wade, ranking in the 22nd percentile to 48th for Wade. And in defensive rebounding, Wade is in the 73rd percentile compared to the 2nd percentile for Okoro.

As far as which player forces more low percentage shots or forces the opponent to give up the ball because he can't get the shot off at all, I can't find a stat for that. If anybody knows of any, let me know.

I get that Wade played four years at Kansas State. I also get that numbers aren't everything. But you'd think given Okoro's draft status his number would at least be in the same ballpark.

 

[foucault87]

I suppose what concerns me about Okoro is comparing him to another rookie, Dean Wade. They play different positions and Wade is four years older, but they're both new to the NBA and Okoro was a top five pick whereas Wade wasn't even drafted.

Looking at their numbers compared to other players at their positions if kind of shocking.

Points per shot attempt: Okoro ranks in the 18th percentile among "wings", Wade is in the 97th percentile among "forwards".

Assists per usage rate: Wade 75th percentile; Okoro 28th.

Effective field goal percentage: Wade 73rd percentile; Okoro 22nd.

Three-point percentage: Wade 98th percentile; Okoro 17th.

Offensive rebound percentage: Wade 83rd percentile; Okoro 59th.

So in the offensive categories, Wade is much better relative to his position group than Okoro across the board - shooting, assists, and rebounding. In some cases the differences are huge.

Defensively, Okoro has the advantage in steal percentage, ranking in the 66th percentile compared to the 24th percentile for Wade. But Okoro commits more fouls than Wade, ranking in the 22nd percentile to 48th for Wade. And in defensive rebounding, Wade is in the 73rd percentile compared to the 2nd percentile for Okoro.

As far as which player forces more low percentage shots or forces the opponent to give up the ball because he can't get the shot off at all, I can't find a stat for that. If anybody knows of any, let me know.

I get that Wade played four years at Kansas State. I also get that numbers aren't everything. But you'd think given Okoro's draft status his number would at least be in the same ballpark.

I think you are really underestimating how much four years really means. Wade has pretty much finished growing physically. He had an additional 3 years of high level college coaching + a half year in the pros and playing against high(er) level competition. Just that additional exposure and game experience matter a lot more. It is not unusual for a multi-year college player to look better than a one and done.

I am not worried about Okoro at all. He is young. We knew he was going to be raw. The big plus to me is that he is able to play these high minutes and seems to be holding up physically which is a big deal at his age.

Edit: One more comment on the comparison. Comparing Okoro's stats vs wings and Wade vs forwards is sloppy statistics. Those are two distinct populations. You cannot infer anything from one about the other unless you look at combined population stats.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think you are really underestimating how much four years really means. Wade has pretty much finished growing physically. He had an additional 3 years of high level college coaching + a half year in the pros and playing against high(er) level competition. Just that additional exposure and game experience matter a lot more. It is not unusual for a multi-year college player to look better than a one and done.

I am not worried about Okoro at all. He is young. We knew he was going to be raw. The big plus to me is that he is able to play these high minutes and seems to be holding up physically which is a big deal at his age.

I don't know - was LeBron not finished growing physically at age 20? Okoro is a solid 225 pounds. I would be surprised if he gets stronger.

By the way, nba.com has stats on percentage of shots made by opponents you are guarding. For Okoro his "defended field goal percentage" is 50.7%. For Wade it's 39.0%. Obviously they're not guarding the same players and Okoro is usually defending the opponent's top scoring wing, so that's a consideration.

Jarrett Allen's defended field goal percentage is 43.7%. Larry Nance Jr is at 49.6%. Nance's defensive prowess is more related to his steals than forcing missed shots.

Wade's number across the board are pretty amazing - you'd think he's one of the best power forwards in the league. He's only played 391 minutes compared to over 1,000 for Okoro, and some of those minutes have come in garbage time against the opponent's bench.

If Wade continues to start or at least play real minutes I expect his numbers will come down. But in the last five games, playing with and against starters, Wade is shooting 64% overall and 57.9% on 3's. He's averaging 6.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 25.4 minutes. It doesn't appear that he padded his stats against scrubs but fell apart once he got the chance to start. He's actually shooting better as a starter.

 

[foucault87]

I don't know - was LeBron not finished growing physically at age 20? Okoro is a solid 225 pounds. I would be surprised if he gets stronger.

By the way, nba.com has stats on percentage of shots made by opponents you are guarding. For Okoro his "defended field goal percentage" is 50.7%. For Wade it's 39.0%. Obviously they're not guarding the same players and Okoro is usually defending the opponent's top scoring wing, so that's a consideration.

LeBron is usually not the guy you want to point to as an example. He is almost always the exception to the rule. As is, I am pretty sure he added like 30 pounds after the 07 Finals run, so while unlikely, it is not crazy that Okoro could add weight.

As for the defended FG%, you said exactly why its so high. He ends up covering guys like Middelton and Durant who can roast just about anyone. And tbh, I think we have a better chance with Okoro on those guys than say...Cedi

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I don't think Okoro's problem is that he's too weak and getting pushed around. And the Cavs' coaches say he'll get better defensively as he gains experience and learns opponents' tendencies. And, yes, you have to factor in the players he's been guarding.

The main thing is he seems to really want to excel defensively. Some players see defense as just an aggravation they have to endure in order to get another chance to shoot. Okoro seems like he wants to excel defensively and is happy to make defense his priority. As long as he has that attitude I think he'll eventually be pretty good at it. And like they say, defense never goes into a slump.

The key to how far he goes, IMO, is whether the coaches can fix the footwork, rhythm and release on his jump shot and whether he is moved to the 2-guard position eventually. He seems to be a little undersized for the 3 although his wingspan and jumping ability may compensate for lack of height.

 

["MVP"]

In fairness, one-and-dones rarely contribute to winning basketball. They're just two years removed from high school basketball, where the leap to NCAA competition is large then the leap again to NBA competition is exponentially larger.

I remember my first HS varsity basketball game as a sophomore. I was terrible. Felt so out of place. The game was way too fast for me. Then my junior year it slowed down a little, then even more my senior year.

Same is true in the NBA. Gotta give these 19/20 year olds some time to mature and adjust to the speed of the game. Okoro's deferring to Sexland, which is completely understandable as a rook trying to find his footing. He's shown glimpses (preseason, Memphis game with Sexland out, Sixers game recently, etc.), which is all I hope for from him this season.

Okoro has the tools to be a great 2-way wing in this league. I'd expect a big leap by this time next year.

 

[Arketebel]

In fairness, one-and-dones rarely contribute to winning basketball. They're just two years removed from high school basketball, where the leap to NCAA competition is large then the leap again to NBA competition is exponentially larger.

I remember my first HS varsity basketball game as a sophomore. I was terrible. Felt so out of place. The game was way too fast for me. Then my junior year it slowed down a little, then even more my senior year.

Same is true in the NBA. Gotta give these 19/20 year olds some time to mature and adjust to the speed of the game. Okoro's deferring to Sexland, which is completely understandable as a rook trying to find his footing. He's shown glimpses (preseason, Memphis game with Sexland out, Sixers game recently, etc.), which is all I hope for from him this season.

Okoro has the tools to be a great 2-way wing in this league. I'd expect a big leap by this time next year.

The game was always too fast for me growing up, which is why I gave it up in high school. I still have nightmares of being on the high school court. Sounds lame, but I can't control it. When I went to college I played pickup games with guys, most of them having played in high school, and I could pretty much see everything that was going to happen, especially defensively.

I agree it can take the mind and body a lot of time and reps to catch up, especially on the defensive end. I think defenders often take a little more time than scorers or passers to develop in the NBA and I expect Okoro to get more comfortable with time, allowing him to get that extra step on defense.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

For me personally, playing defense -- both in football and basketball -- is more fun than playing offense. I think it requires a higher degree of alertness and mental engagement. Because you don't know what the offense is going to do, you have to be constantly "calculating" constantly changing time, space, and speed factors, while accounting for the positioning of everyone else on the field/court, and picking up cues as to what is likely to happen next. I think that's a blast. The moment when you know you've diagnosed something correctly and can blow it up to me is more fun than just beating another guy for a score.

 

[2 For The Brew]

I would take charges in the Akron Industrial League. Had a teammate who would go full Lonnie Shelton next to me (I played C, he was PF). Unlike me, Baby Shelton could shoot from six feet. Between the two of us we protected the rim at least as well as Kevin Love.

”Akron Industrial League” sounds tough except it was teams from the tire and rubber companies‘ accounting and finance departments. Good thing because if I had played C against industrial workers I’d have gotten my ass kicked. I will say I had at least as much BBIQ on the court as JaVale McGee.

My favorite offensive move was to fake a corner shot, get me a bird, duck under and drive for a layup. The fake was key because I couldn’t hit the corner shot. I also had a serviceable hook shot - call it the “Cry Hook” because it looked so bad people would cry laughing. That shot would go in as reliably as Okoro’s threes.

So for me I concentrated on D because I stunk on O.

That all makes me biased in favor of Okoro.

 

[Alec]

Becoming increasingly clear he will never be able to switch to PFs and long SFs and handle them. You can’t conjure up length out of thin air.

so he’s a SG who can’t shoot, can’t create his own shot, and is limited to defending 1s and 2s.

great pick Koby.

 

[Kouki]

Today's top headline

19/20 year old rookie struggles defending elite scorers who are taller/longer

 

[Bob_The_Cat]

As much as people are jumping to conclusions that he’s going to flop at this point, I think there’s just as many or more making the major leap that he’s going to develop into a real contributor on offense.

He was a sub 30% 3pt shooter in college, but it seems most here want to peg him as a 3&D guy. I tried looking back for shooting stats from his senior year of high school to see if he shot the three well then, but I couldn’t find anything.

However, this is the only recruiting profile I could find from high school:

247sports

At 6-foot-5, Okoro has a chiseled frame, fairly good size for a perimeter prospect and a +3.5 wingspan. Okoro is a good athlete who plays with toughness. He’s effective in transition and playing a slasher type role. Okoro has a lot of potential on the defensive end, where he can guard both perimeter positions and - in a pinch - small post players. Okoro is also a good rebounder. His energy is contagious. The next step is fine tuning his offensive game. He’ll need to improve his ballhandling and long-range shooter. Okoro projects as a multi-year college player, but with improved offensive skill could be a drafted prospect.

So it would sound as if he has been a poor shooter on every level. Players can certainly improve their shooting, but can anyone think of a player who was a sub 30% 3pt shooter in college (and probably high school) who became an actual threat from 3 at the NBA level? There’s probably some out there, but I cant imagine many exist.

Sounds like he just relied on being a superior athlete in HS on offense and didn’t really improve a ton in that area in his one year at Auburn. That’s my biggest concern with Okoro. Will he actually be able to develop the ball-handling and shooting skills to contribute on offense when he no longer has the distinct advantage of being a better athlete and more physical than all of his opponents? I don’t know, but those are two major hurdles to overcome in the NBA.

 

[inliner311]

Becoming increasingly clear he will never be able to switch to PFs and long SFs and handle them. You can’t conjure up length out of thin air.

so he’s a SG who can’t shoot, can’t create his own shot, and is limited to defending 1s and 2s.

great pick Koby.

I wouldn't be so concern with his lack of offense if he was as advertised being able to defend 1-4, or even 2-4. That creates great flexibility to use a defensive specialist. He just doesn't have that positional flexibility and that hurts how we can build out this roster.

Sexton created some inflexibility in the roster because of his size and how he seems to be naturally a SG. It was something you could work around by finding a tall PG. Add Okoro to the mix and now we might need to find a unicorn type player or two to make everything work.

Koby and the front office might have intended on adding some flexibility going forward with Okoro but in reality all they did is dug themselves deeper into having a team that isn't built for the modern NBA.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Yeah, Friday I was watching 6'7" small forward Brandon Ingram just elevating off the dribble and shooting 15-footers over Okoro. He was scoring with ease.

I think I would rather draft a prospect who has superior shooting, dribbling and passing skills and give him time to develop strength as opposed to taking a guy who's physically mature and try to develop his skills.

Exhibit A - Darius Garland. Exhibit B - Isaac Okoro.

 

[BigZ94]

How bad does he have to play to earn a bench role? He’s too small to guard long SFs and too unskilled to play sg.

Nights where we play top tier guards he guards the opponents point or shooting guard, which leaves Sexton or Garland guarding the opponents SF. What is the logic behind this