The Cavs arrive in the Valley of the Sun for the second night of a back-to-back on the road. The Suns were off yesterday and are 23-14 at home. They are also completely healthy with the exception of starting shooting guard Grayson Allen, who is questionable, so this is pretty much a scheduled loss for the Cavs, especially missing Wade, Okoro, and Porter.
The Suns at 44-31 are tied for 7th place, one game behind the Pelicans and Mavericks for the last guaranteed playoff spot. Obviously, this is a winnable game for them that they cannot afford to hose up unless they want to participate in the play-in (which they don’t).
The Suns have won five of their last seven including impressive wins in the last week against New Orleans by 13 and Denver by 7, both on the road. They lost on the road to OKC.
These teams played in Cleveland three weeks ago with the Suns winning 117-111. The Cavs scored 70 in the first half despite playing without Mitchell, Mobley, Wade, or Strus. But the Suns adjusted their defensive assignments at halftime and held the Cavs to 41 in the second half. I assume Bickerstaff anticipates the Suns using this defensive ploy again tonight and will have a plan to counter it. We’ll see.
In that game Kevin Durant had a line of 37/8/6, Devin Booker had 27 points, and Bradley Beal 24. The Suns have invested heavily in these three stars. Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic round out the starting lineup. After paying the stars the Suns didn’t have enough money left to pay for much of a bench. SG Eric Gordon averages 11.5 ppg, Royce O’Neale averages 8 ppg, and Bol Bol averages 5. In the game in Cleveland the Suns’ bench combined for 6 points as Gordon was out.
But the Big Three are awesome; Durant averages 27.5 points on 53% overall and 42% on 3’s. Booker averages 27.4 points and dropped 52 on New Orleans two nights back. Beal averages 18 points on 50% overall and 39% from deep. Grayson and Nurkic chip in 13 and 11 points on 50% from the field. Grayson is hitting 47% of his 3’s this year and leads the NBA in that category by 2 full percentage points. He takes about six 3’s per game.
The Suns rank 10th in scoring at 117 ppg. They are kind of an old school mid-range team, ranking 1st in frequency of long mid-range shots, led by Durant. They are just 26th in points in the paint and 21st in 3-point frequency. They are outstanding shooters, ranking 6th in effective field goal percentage. Durant is pretty much unstoppable on the mid-range pull-up as we saw in March.
They’re 8th in offensive rebound percentage and 5th in free throw attempts per play. They get to the line a lot (aided by their reputations, no doubt) and crash the offensive glass effectively.
Their only weakness is ranking 25th in turnovers per possession. This is a veteran unit so I’m not sure why they turn it over so much. Their starters are all 27-35 years old. Gordon and O’Neale are 35 and 30 coming off the bench. They have experience everywhere.
Defensively the Suns are average in points allowed. They defend well, ranking 7th in effective field goal percentage, but they are just 26th in forcing turnovers so their opponents get off a lot of shots. The Suns rank 26th in opponents’ field goal attempts per game.
I don’t see the Cavs having much of a shot, if any, under the circumstances. But they did have a halftime lead in Cleveland three weeks ago without Mitchell, Mobley, Wade, or Strus. This time they’ll have Mobley and Strus, and possibly Mitchell as well, so I suppose they could make it interesting. Garland had 30 in the first game, so Beal and Booker had problems containing him.
But the Suns need this win and you know if it’s close Durant will close it out. He came out after halftime and scored 19 in the 3rd quarter to put the Suns in command. He said he was surprised the Cavs let him take those shots. The Cavs will also be tired from playing in Utah the night before.
Booker, Beal, and KD combined for 88 points last game against the Cavs, so the Cavs need to come up with a better defensive strategy, although they held Phoenix to their scoring average of 117. The Cavs were down by 2 in the final minute and could have won despite being shorthanded if Niang and Merrill hadn’t gone 1-for-11 on 3’s. The Cavs were on the second night of a back-to-back for that game, too.
I’m looking forward to the Mobley/Durant matchup. When Durant scored 37 against us I think Niang was on him a lot with Mobley and Wade out. I want to see if Evan can force him to miss some of those mid-range jumpers, or pass off.
Booker will be a huge problem coming off a 52-point game. We don’t have anyone who can guard him with Mitchell less than 100% unless Okoro is back, and even then Booker will get his.
Injury report
CLEVELAND
Dean Wade - OUT (knee)
Ty Jerome - OUT (ankle)
Isaac Okoro - OUT (toe)
Craig Porter Jr - OUT (illness)
PHOENIX
Damion Lee - OUT (knee)
Grayson Allen - QUESTIONABLE (hip)