Your 2019 Cleveland Indians

[sportscoach]

@kidduck

I am with Derek on his argument, of course we would like another good bat to replace Puig in a sense, but we have a good lineup to begin with so it’s not like we are losing much when Puig goes elsewhere.

@Stark Reyes will get some time/innings in LF and 1B in the off season, so it’s not like we won’t try to stop developing him in the OF, but at the end of the day he likely won’t play in either spot more than like 200 innings a piece in a single season.

Also why are we counting out Bauers so much next season, he was one of the youngest guys in the league this year and I think he has all the room to grow into a 20+ HR guy. Chang in AA a couple seasons ago also hit 20+ HRs and we have Bradley in the minors who we know can hit the ball a mile, he just has to put everything together. We have the talent in the organization, it’s just really a question mark of can One of the guys we have step into the role/can we find someone to fit that need without giving up too many assets?

Ramírez, Santana, Lindor and Reyes can and likely will hit 30+ HRs, Bradley likely too would by default with his power but can he hit for good enough contact and fix his BB and SO rates? Guys like Bauers, Luplow, Perez, Chang etc would hit 20+ HRs with everyday play more than likely, but Chang is still unknown, and Bauers and Luplow need to show the consistency to play everyday.

 

[Stark]

I don't even care about home runs as a blanket stat that much anymore. Everybody is hitting a bunch of home runs.

We're 17th in homers this year and Tampa is 20th, and both teams are in serious playoff contention with a dozen games left. There are plenty of teams with more home runs than the Indians that we are a better team than.

Our team as currently constructed for next season (w/ no Puig/Kipnis) still have:

• Francisco Lindor: 31+ HR the past three seasons
• Jose Ramirez: 29 HR, 39 HR, and 20 HR the past three seasons; was on pace to hit roughly ~26 this season and that was with his putrid start factored in
• Carlos Santana: 20+ HR in 7 of the past 9 seasons; most likely going to set a career high this season
• Franmil Reyes: not a huge sample size, but projects to be a 35+ HR hitter next season
• Roberto Perez: has hit more HR this season (357 AB) than his entire previous career combined (818 AB)

Guys like Jake Bauers and Jordan Luplow both have the pop to hit 20+ HR in a season as well, but Bauers needs to prove he's worth giving those at-bats to in the first place, and Luplow needs to get better against right handers. If Luplow had 500 ABs against only left-handers this season, he projected out to hit around 53 HRs. He straight mashes LHP.

I'm more worried about our bullpen next season than power production. Puig hasn't done dick here, so we're not particularly going to lose a whole lot when he walks. Kipnis is still a nice source of power for a middle infielder, but I think that can be pretty easily replaced. Guys like Reyes and Ramirez project to have better seasons, and we just need Lindor, Santana, and Perez to try to hold form.

 

[Derek]

Give me an everyday lineup without Puig or Kipnis.

"Compete" has levels.


Fair enough. I assume we certainly will subtract Puig and quite likely Kipnis, so it won't be exactly as currently composed. So yes I think we will need to add a strong middle of the order bat in order to seriously compete for a World Series title.

Production wise, Puig and Kipnis won’t be difficult to replace at all. Both have been below league average producers at the plate this year.

Naquin is a bigger loss than either of them.

Since the start of June (We've average 5.16 runs/game):

Naquin - .293/.330/.511 112 wRC+
Puig - .267/.353/.390 96 wRC+
Kipnis - .252/.309/.448 90 wRC+

Can't be too tough to replace that production. Chang needs to match Kipnis, and then we need Zimmer, Luplow, and a 3rd guy to match Puig/Naquin in CF/RF.

 

[Urban]

The Nats play the Phillies 5 times in 4 days before the Indians visit them to close out the season. Here is to hoping they are worn out and we can avoid at least 1 of Scherzer/Strasburg

 

[daddywags]

Production wise, Puig and Kipnis won’t be difficult to replace at all. Both have been below league average producers at the plate this year.

Naquin is a bigger loss than either of them.

Since the start of June (We've average 5.16 runs/game):

Naquin - .293/.330/.511 112 wRC+
Puig - .267/.353/.390 96 wRC+
Kipnis - .252/.309/.448 90 wRC+

Can't be too tough to replace that production. Chang needs to match Kipnis, and then we need Zimmer, Luplow, and a 3rd guy to match Puig/Naquin in CF/RF.

I guess at bottom I think people are more confident that our younger players will make a jump next year and that we will be better healthwise than I am.

To the point that Puig's 96 wRC+ should be easily replaceable, I'd note Mercado (97), Perez (97), and Reyes (80 since 8/1) are counted on to be above average contributors. Chang is at 68 in a small sample size this year but he only managed 88 at AAA as well. IMO he's a complete question mark as is Bradley Zimmer who has struggled so far to hit major league pitching. Greg Allen is at 67 wRC+ this year, was 75 in '18 and 101 at AAA. These are the guys we're going to be counting on to contribute beyond Lindor, Ramirez and Santana. I'm not comfortable with that.

All that said I hope you all are right because I see very little likelihood that we add a strong middle of the order bat. So we shall see.

 

[Derek]

I guess at bottom I think people are more confident that our younger players will make a jump next year and that we will be better healthwise than I am.

To the point that Puig's 96 wRC+ should be easily replaceable, I'd note Mercado (97), Perez (97), and Reyes (80 since 8/1) are counted on to be above average contributors. Chang is at 68 in a small sample size this year but he only managed 88 at AAA as well. IMO he's a complete question mark as is Bradley Zimmer who has struggled so far to hit major league pitching. Greg Allen is at 67 wRC+ this year, was 75 in '18 and 101 at AAA. These are the guys we're going to be counting on to contribute beyond Lindor, Ramirez and Santana. I'm not comfortable with that.

All that said I hope you all are right because I see very little likelihood that we add a strong middle of the order bat. So we shall see.

I said above average for their positions, which Perez already is, and Reyes has already proven to be above average through a larger sample size than just a month's worth of games. Mercado is the one where we'd like to see a jump, and IMO that's likely given he was just a rookie this year.

Chang was mostly hurt this year, and had a 109 wRC+ during a full season at AAA in 2018. He's known as a hitter. It's not unreasonable to think he should be able to match Kip's production.

I agree Zimmer's ability to be a league average hitter is questionable, I said as much in my very first post. Heck, I even added Chang as a question mark. I never stated any of those guys were sure things. I was merely responding to your insistence that we need another middle of the order bat in order to even compete with the other top offenses.

The fact is, we wouldn't be far off right now if we were healthy, and the guys we're losing are very replaceable. I admitted it'd be nice to acquire a solid contributor to hit 6th or 7th, but the middle of the order is as good as any in baseball when you look at Jose, Frankie, Carlos, and Franmil.

Now, I don't like leading Frankie off, but it seems unlikely that they'll mix it up, so here's what we're looking at.

vs RH
1. Lindor - SS
2. Ramirez - 2B/3B
3. Santana - 1B
4. Reyes - DH
5. Chang - 2B/3B
6. RF
7. Mercado - LF
8. Perez - C
9. Zimmer - CF

vs LH
1. Lindor - SS
2. Ramirez - 2B/3B
3. Santana - 1B
4. Reyes - DH
5. Luplow - LF
6. Chang - 2B/3B
7. Mercado - CF
8. Perez - C
9. RF


If Naquin is healthy, which I'm not counting on, but I'm not counting out either. He slots in nicely as a solid every day RF.

You have to give the young guys a chance at some point (Chang, Zimmer, Bauers, etc.), or else you just end up wasting time with Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Gonzalez while you have a stacked AAA team full of MLB question marks that you never really gave an opportunity to.

 

[Urban]

Reyes is 111 since 8/15

I think the point with Kipnis and Puig is that neither are necessarily big losses. Puig especially, he's been here for 6 weeks. Neither player is of the caliber of Michael Brantley

 

[Stark]

Naquin won't resume baseball activities for roughly nine months, which puts him on track for a rehab assignment around June of next season. Could probably see him back, best case, around July 1st next season as a rough estimate.

Definitely going to need to plan for not having him for at least the first three months.

 

[Derek]

Naquin won't resume baseball activities for roughly nine months, which puts him on track for a rehab assignment around June of next season. Could probably see him back, best case, around July 1st next season as a rough estimate.

Definitely going to need to plan for not having him for at least the first three months.

Best case is 7 months, and most likely back with the major league club by May. I'd peg June as his likely return to the Indians though.

Anything can happens with injuries though, and I've already said I'm not counting on him.

 

[Steve_424]

I just don't see them handing 2B to Chang. I can see Kipnis back, or a 1 year stopgap (Dozier/Gennett/Schoop/Zobrist/Castro). Honestly, there isn't a ton in the FA market that excites me, but the Tribe is typically more active in the trade market anyhow. I'd still love for them to acquire a leadoff hitter to push Frankie down to #2 or #3.

 

[Beanie4Heisman]

Good to see the Athletics and Rays both lost in their last outtings. Hopefully that allows some air back into the Tribe's sails.

But we've gotta be better at getting baserunners in, and it can't be long ball only. This squad needs to scrap, it's infuriating to have above average pitching most outtings with substandard at bats on the back side. If we do rally here it will be on the back of Santana as it has been all season.

 

[NorthCoastBias]

Nice break for the Tribe. Won't have to face Giolito next week.

 

[Derek]

I just don't see them handing 2B to Chang. I can see Kipnis back, or a 1 year stopgap (Dozier/Gennett/Schoop/Zobrist/Castro). Honestly, there isn't a ton in the FA market that excites me, but the Tribe is typically more active in the trade market anyhow. I'd still love for them to acquire a leadoff hitter to push Frankie down to #2 or #3.

I think it'd be a big mistake if they're not going to give Chang a chance at an every day role next year. Like I said before, you have to give the young guys a chance at some point. Chang has spent multiple years in AAA, so it's now or never. Bringing in a cheap stop gap in this situation reeks of CarGo and Hanley in the early season.

 

[sportscoach]

I think it'd be a big mistake if they're not going to give Chang a chance at an every day role next year. Like I said before, you have to give the young guys a chance at some point. Chang has spent multiple years in AAA, so it's now or never. Bringing in a cheap stop gap in this situation reeks of CarGo blocking Mercado.

I completely agree here as well to be honest. Now which position do you think Ramirez will play going forward, 2B or 3B? That I think will be a factor on how well guys do that they have to compete for the spot.

To me this off season will go like this, Kipnis will get released from his contract and offered a resign at a one or two year deal at a way lesser rate. I don't think he will take it, but the offer will be out there. Then we start camp with 6 guys competing to replace Kipnis, 3 on the current team roster in Chang, Arroyo, and Mike Freeman. Then 3 invites to camp being Mathias, Clement and then a veteran guy on a minor league invite with incentives and an opt out, my target would be like Jedd Gyorko (who is a solid INF anyways and could be another utility man). Those guys would compete to replace Kipnis, with likely Chang or the veteran on paper being the front runner.

Side note: Eric Stamets likely will be in camp as well, but I almost feel unless a team Rule 5 picks him, he likely will stay playing for Columbus since he gets to play in front of his family ever home game being from the suburbs down there. If he wants to essentially be a lifer in Columbus, he would be perfect for the job.

 

[Derek]

I completely agree here as well to be honest. Now which position do you think Ramirez will play going forward, 2B or 3B? That I think will be a factor on how well guys do that they have to compete for the spot.

To me this off season will go like this, Kipnis will get released from his contract and offered a resign at a one or two year deal at a way lesser rate. I don't think he will take it, but the offer will be out there. Then we start camp with 6 guys competing to replace Kipnis, 3 on the current team roster in Chang, Arroyo, and Freeman. Then 3 invites to camp being Mathias, Clement and then a veteran guy on a minor league invite with incentives and an opt out, my target would be like Jedd Gyorko (who is a solid INF anyways and could be another utility man). Those guys would compete to replace Kipnis, with likely Chang or the veteran on paper being the front runner.

Side note: Eric Stamets likely will be in camp as well, but I almost feel unless a team Rule 5 picks him, he likely will stay playing for Columbus since he gets to play in front of his family ever home game being from the suburbs down there. If he wants to essentially be a lifer in Columbus, he would be perfect for the job.

Where Ramirez plays probably depends on if there are any FA available at a good price. I'm anti-stop gap guy, but if you could bring in a guy lie Wilmer Flores, he's probably a better fit at 2B than 3B.

I'm honestly not sure where they favor Chang. 3B is the more important position, so whichever they feel defends it better is probably how it ends up.