Zach Lowe as usual is right on. People don't give the Cavs credit for being the most talented team in the NBA IF HEALTHY. That IF HEALTHY is the big deal. I really feel like this season is all about health and nothing but. If we are healthy for the last half of the season and the playoffs we should win the championship and our only serious challenge should be in the NBA finals. But I would put less than a 50% chance on everyone being truly healthy by February and staying that way through the finals.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/our-annual-tiers-of-the-nba/
Championship Contenders
Cleveland Cavaliers: This is the only tier in which order matters. Cleveland enters the season as a slight favorite to win the title for one basic reason: If the Cavs are healthy, they might be able to walk to the Finals. They almost certainly won’t be the league’s “best” team by any measure of quality, especially since they’re dealing with injuries to Timofey Mozgov, Kevin Love, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Anderson Varejao, and Iman Shumpert.2 The West is loaded with teams that could beat the Cavs in a best-of-seven series. Jalen Rose declared Cleveland might not be one of the league’s five best teams. Jeff Van Gundy said on my podcast last week he’s picking the winner of the West, no matter who it is, to win the title.
That all makes some theoretical sense. But, people: Cleveland was halfway home in the Finals last season, trotting out a gutted roster against a team that was so much better top to bottom that it was almost comical. Surround LeBron with the real Cavs in a short series, and I don’t really care if the Western Conference representative brings a better season-long point differential.
Even if all five contenders from the West end up qualitatively “better” than Cleveland, the Cavs have to beat only one of them. One of those five West teams is going to lose in the first round. You can’t win the Finals without getting there, and unless Chicago or Atlanta jells in some magical way, it’s hard to see anyone in the East keeping a healthy Cleveland team from reaching the championship round — a place LeBron has been five consecutive seasons.
It’s also unclear whether any of those teams from the West is actually better than Cleveland, at least once you whittle each roster down to its playoff rotation. The Cavs outscored opponents by 17 points per 100 possessions when LeBron, Irving, Love, and Mozgov shared the floor last season — a mark comparable to any of the four- or five-man Golden State units that burned the league down. They were 32-3 in their last 35 games with LeBron, Love, and Irving.
Critics point out the Cavs remained a mediocre defensive team even after acquiring Mozgov, but when he was actually on the floor, they defended at a borderline top-five level. They also worked out a lot of the kinks in Year 1 of the New LeBron Era; Cleveland started the season blitzing pick-and-rolls with the frenzy of LeBron’s Heat teams, realized after about 30 games that Love and Varejao are, umm, a bit slower than Chris Bosh, and dropped back into a more conservative scheme that fits its personnel. The Cavs should do better than 21st in total defensive rebounds and they gave up a few too many 3s, but they at least know who they are now.
Love’s defense will be an issue against some teams. This is his eighth year in the league; it’s time to try harder instead of just talking about trying harder. When he gives a peak effort, Love isn’t as bad as his reputation, and the Cavs have tools to cover for him. They also have a $10.5 million trade exception to add one last piece, but given their beyond-Prokhorovian tax bill after the Tristan Thompson signing, they may not use it. They might not need to, anyway.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/our-annual-tiers-of-the-nba/
Championship Contenders
Cleveland Cavaliers: This is the only tier in which order matters. Cleveland enters the season as a slight favorite to win the title for one basic reason: If the Cavs are healthy, they might be able to walk to the Finals. They almost certainly won’t be the league’s “best” team by any measure of quality, especially since they’re dealing with injuries to Timofey Mozgov, Kevin Love, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Anderson Varejao, and Iman Shumpert.2 The West is loaded with teams that could beat the Cavs in a best-of-seven series. Jalen Rose declared Cleveland might not be one of the league’s five best teams. Jeff Van Gundy said on my podcast last week he’s picking the winner of the West, no matter who it is, to win the title.
That all makes some theoretical sense. But, people: Cleveland was halfway home in the Finals last season, trotting out a gutted roster against a team that was so much better top to bottom that it was almost comical. Surround LeBron with the real Cavs in a short series, and I don’t really care if the Western Conference representative brings a better season-long point differential.
Even if all five contenders from the West end up qualitatively “better” than Cleveland, the Cavs have to beat only one of them. One of those five West teams is going to lose in the first round. You can’t win the Finals without getting there, and unless Chicago or Atlanta jells in some magical way, it’s hard to see anyone in the East keeping a healthy Cleveland team from reaching the championship round — a place LeBron has been five consecutive seasons.
It’s also unclear whether any of those teams from the West is actually better than Cleveland, at least once you whittle each roster down to its playoff rotation. The Cavs outscored opponents by 17 points per 100 possessions when LeBron, Irving, Love, and Mozgov shared the floor last season — a mark comparable to any of the four- or five-man Golden State units that burned the league down. They were 32-3 in their last 35 games with LeBron, Love, and Irving.
Critics point out the Cavs remained a mediocre defensive team even after acquiring Mozgov, but when he was actually on the floor, they defended at a borderline top-five level. They also worked out a lot of the kinks in Year 1 of the New LeBron Era; Cleveland started the season blitzing pick-and-rolls with the frenzy of LeBron’s Heat teams, realized after about 30 games that Love and Varejao are, umm, a bit slower than Chris Bosh, and dropped back into a more conservative scheme that fits its personnel. The Cavs should do better than 21st in total defensive rebounds and they gave up a few too many 3s, but they at least know who they are now.
Love’s defense will be an issue against some teams. This is his eighth year in the league; it’s time to try harder instead of just talking about trying harder. When he gives a peak effort, Love isn’t as bad as his reputation, and the Cavs have tools to cover for him. They also have a $10.5 million trade exception to add one last piece, but given their beyond-Prokhorovian tax bill after the Tristan Thompson signing, they may not use it. They might not need to, anyway.
