Can we just put a couple things to rest regarding Weeden?
First, his health. Yes, his baseball career ended due to a shoulder injury. That was in 2006. He became the starter at OSU in 2010 and played all of that year and all of 2011 without shoulder trouble. Pitching a baseball is a much different action than throwing a football. You use different muscles, your arm moves differently, and you don't throw a football nearly as hard as you throw a baseball. Every team will evaluate his shoulder to make sure it is sound. I have seen no evidence to the contrary.
His torn labrum isn't a huge issue the way it currently is but when you're evaluating a 29 year old prospect, any additional risk is bad. If he gets hurt and makes the injury worse or it becomes an issue as he gets older it would take away from the "6-8 great years" that people keep pulling out of thin air as an expectation for Weeden. Thus, it's worth mentioning.
Second, his arm strength. I encourage the detractors to post scouting reports that say his arm strength is mediocre. Every report I have seen says it is one of his best features. Scouts, Inc. gave him a "1" rating for arm strength, meaning he is exceptional in that regard. Greg Cosell noted that he has great arm strength on throws over the middle.
Some of the negatives are valid. He does have problems facing pressure. He has accuracy problems on throws to the sidelines. He needs to improve his footwork.
Agree with all of this. I'd be surprised if anyone who is comparing Colt's arm strength to Weeden's has actually watched him play. He threw a mid-90's fastball in baseball and throws with good velocity in football. His physical tools are no part of the concern I have with him.
He will also be a 29-year-old rookie. But he isn't the first QB to start his NFL career late. Roger Staubach went on to have a Hall of Fame career after starting his at 27 years old.
This is where the rub is for me. It makes no sense to compare Weeden to guys like Staubach/Warner. Staubach may have only been a 27 year old rookie but he played extra years on various Navy teams after college to get himself ready for the NFL. Even then, it took him 2 years to make the Pro Bowl. Warner played years in the Arena league and NFL Europe before going to the NFL. Oh, and Weeden is 2 years older than both of them.
Weeden is a true rookie with only 2 years of starting under his belt. He wasn't playing football from 2002-2006. If we were talking about any other 2 year starter at QB, we'd be talking about his adjustment period and how he'll need some seasoning before he's ready. Apparently if that QB ages to 29 though, he's ready to light the league on fire. Holding the clipboard and getting older is not what makes NFL backup QBs better over time, it's being around, practicing and learning football. Age 29 usually means increased maturity. It does NOT mean NFL readiness.
The risk there is that if he takes more than 1-2 years to develop, he's pretty much a waste. With a young guy like Rodgers, GB could afford to spend 3-4 years developing him because when he was finally ready, he was in his mid 20's. If Weeden takes that long, he'll be a 32-33 year old first time starter. I want nothing to do with that scenario but it's a definite possibility.
While Weeden is not a perfect prospect, I would have no issue with us taking him in the third. The second round is a bit high for him, but I suppose I would be OK with him there, as well. No. 22 overall is too high for him, though.
I don't know that anyone has an issue taking him in the 3rd because there's little risk there. Where I have issue is taking him in the 2nd or (God forbid) trading up into the 1st for him or selecting him at 22. Those picks can be used on Day 1 starters at RB/OT/WR... that's the point where the risk becomes too much for me.
Adding weapons and protection around Colt and drafting a young, high-upside guy next year if he flops is much better than hoping Weeden instantly becomes great in the NFL and makes up for the missing weapon. Too much risk here guys... too much risk.