The Brian Hoyer thread...

Soda said:

I can honestly see how folks don't see value in Hoyer if considering intangible traits is not in the cards. It's probably his best trait and one that doesn't really get any attention by stat-religious folk. I suppose that's OK, but it paints a very different picture of the QB's/Hoyer's value to the team overall.

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It's given value by people like me, but the team isn't winning games because of will-power.

Truthfully it's given more attention than it's worth.

Traits like "clutch" are overused and subjective to the point that they can change from week-to-week.

How people choose those types of traits over efficiency on the field I'll never fully understand. It's a factor that is well behind the tangible, something that has been a more accurate precursor to success throughout NFL history (or any history, for that matter).

Hoyer has proven himself to be quite un-clutch anyway. Other than the Titans game, and maybe a game last year, when has he won us a game in the 4th? We blew the Ravens game which we shoulda won, we shit the bed against both JAX and HOU and he was not clutch in either of those. The two divisional wins were blowouts so no clutch needed.

The problem with "tangible stats" is they can be framed to benefit the person using them. I'd really like to see a breakdown of if the team is playing from behind or playing with a lead. How do those factor into Hoyer's statistics and the types of plays being called? It strikes me that the play action is being used when the game is close or the Browns have the lead. Those are times I've seen Shanahan using it most effectively. That would lend to the kind of statistics B00bie posed on Tuesday.

Shanahan isn't calling multi-receiver rhythm passing plays unless the team is trying to dig out of a hole. Back in 2013 we saw a lot of Hoyer running this type of formation, even into the preseason we saw this and announcers called him "a rhythm passer." Play-action passing is, by definition, the opposite. Its using multiple run plays to set up vertical, deep passes. I've mentioned a few times in the past few weeks that the team lacks the type of receivers who are going to run intermediate routes, basically using guys under 5'10 to get deep. Personnel changes the play calling, as does situation.

And I'm waiting for someone who does this professionally to create such a statistical breakdown. I don't have the time. I'm hoping we will see some decent analysis now that a WR with plus size has returned to the active list.

FiveThous said:

Even as average as Hoyer has looked, keeping him here will cost 8-10M/yr minimum. Someone will pay him that money elsewhere.

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If another team wants to give Hoyer $8-10 million a year the Browns will let them. The article posted above was talking about the transition tag- $16 million a year is fucking insane for Brian Hoyer.

Smart teams don't give rich extensions to players out of the bargain bin, they cut them loose when they get pricey and delve back into the FA pool for another potential value. Save money for young players with room for growth and veterans with longer track records than Hoyer's single mediocre year.

The Voice said:

Other teams have injuries and suspensions too and still get the job done. And Hoyer had cameron for some of those games we won.

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How many games was Cameron the healthy player he was last year? He was playing with a sprained AC shoulder joint.

This summer ESPN i think had us last in the power rankings. We aren't "other teams". We are in a transition year with new coaches and a ton of new pieces...including a QB coming off of an ACL injury. We are trying to climb out of the cellar of the NFL. I get the fact that everyone has injuries and suspensions, but I can't think of one that lost 3 pro-bowlers on offense. That's devastating for a team that was a weak team to start with.

The Voice said:

The rookie running backs aren't playing terrible. Nobody wants to hear that excuse, there's other teams that have rookie running backs.

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It's not an excuse, it's a fact. We are 27th in the league in rushing...that's certainly not great...or even average. Sure, other teams are starting rookie running backs, but how good are they? The Browns, having lost the #1 receiver in the NFL and their Pro-bowl tight end can't afford to have a weak running game too.

I was watching the Colt's Monday night game last week. Gruden made a great point. He said that Luck wasn't having a great night accuracy wise, but at the end of the day everyone will talk about what a tremendous game he had. He pointed out several plays that were basically "hail marys" where the receivers made incredible plays. The TY Hilton catch comes to mind. He just threw up a jump ball and Hilton pulled it away from the defender for a touchdown. Gruden said that having weapons like that are a huge factor in a QB's confidence and success. He said, Peyton Manning is incredible...no doubt...but how great is it to be able to throw to Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Emanual Sanders and Julius Thomas. He finished by saying it makes you wonder what the hell is going on with Jay Cutler who has arguably the best weapons in the NFL.

Again, we were a bottom dweller in the NFL last year. This year we lost the best center in the NFL. We lost the leading receiver in the NFL. We lost our pro-bowler tight end. We have two rookie running backs and just cut our veteran running back...we are 27th in rushing. Add all that up and it's going to have a negative impact on ANY quarterback. Had i told you all those facts before the season, is there anyone on the planet that would guess we'd have 6 wins with 6 left to play? 4 wins?? 2 wins??? And no, i'm not saying give Hoyer all the credit for those 6 wins. Just saying that after all the adversity, he's done pretty well given the hand he has been dealt. Has he had a couple dogs? Sure. Would he do better if he had skill players comparable to some of the top QB's in the league? Absolutely.

Take away Dez Bryant and Jason Whitten from Romo...switch Demarco out for Terrence West. Take away his best lineman too. How does Tony Romo and Cowboys look then?

Just looking at QB ranking is wildly unfair. All the top QB's have the great weapons. We just don't have the weapons other teams have...yet somehow we still have 6 wins with 6 games to go.

pl4tinum said:

Hoyer has proven himself to be quite un-clutch anyway. Other than the Titans game, and maybe a game last year, when has he won us a game in the 4th? We blew the Ravens game which we shoulda won, we shit the bed against both JAX and HOU and he was not clutch in either of those. The two divisional wins were blowouts so no clutch needed.

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Saints game?

AZ_ said:

It's given value by people like me, but the team isn't winning games because of will-power.

Truthfully it's given more attention than it's worth.

Traits like "clutch" are overused and subjective to the point that they can change from week-to-week.

How people choose those types of traits over efficiency on the field I'll never fully understand. It's a factor that is well behind the tangible, something that has been a more accurate precursor to success throughout NFL history (or any history, for that matter).

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What's annoying to me is that you see all of this as fact. You leave no room or respect for people who do value it. Not only posters here, but people who are well more respected and versed to the NFL.

To say that the tangible is "something that has been a more accurate precursor to success throughout NFL history" is pretty much crippling any respect for intangibles as they're not measured or haven't been kept track of with any quantitative methods that would yield some kind of "accuracy".

Soda said:

What's annoying to me is that you see all of this as fact. You leave no room or respect for people who do value it. Not only posters here, but people who are well more respected and versed to the NFL.

To say that the tangible is "something that has been a more accurate precursor to success throughout NFL history" is pretty much crippling any respect for intangibles as they're not measured or haven't been kept track of with any quantitative methods that would yield some kind of "accuracy".

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People well versed in the NFL who value intangibles aren't the problem, it's people who aren't well versed in the NFL who overvalue them which make it become less purposeful.

Kind of like someone who claims to be a stat guy claiming that 330 yards is a good performance regardless of what else happens in the game.

Hoyer is an impossibly dedicated guy and puts in all the time necessary for the position, that IS tangible even if there is no stat to prove it. I respect that immensely about him and I'm confident he'll get the most out of his skill-set, even if I don't believe that skill-set is suited for long term success at this level.

Where the argument goes off the rails is when you stop caring about what he does on the field and cop out behind "well he's a winner" simply because THE TEAM won.

It's bullshit to the highest degree. Mark Sanchez was a winner too, until he wasn't. Matt Cassel made millions because he's a winner.

Hoyer needs to prove to be more than just "a winner."

I'm probably in the minority, but I see great value in a transition tag with Hoyer.

We have plenty of cap room, a young QB who may need another year on the bench, and the team seems to like Hoyer. But I'm not going to commit stupid, 10 year contract to Hoyer either. And if someone wishes to overpay to have Hoyer start for them, then we gain ANOTHER 1st round pick.

So, yeah, I'm for the transition tag.

I see 4 categories for QBs
1. Elite
2. Long Term Starter
3. Aging starter
4. Quality Backup/take a flyer.
There is a 5th category of rookies but since those guys are slotted into their pay scale I took them out of the picture.

Elite QBs are going to get 100 Million + contracts with 30-60 million guaranteed and a 18-22 million per year cap hit.

Guys that were initially signed to be Long Term Starters are going to get 70-100 Million Contracts with 20-40 guaranteed and 15-20 million per year cap hit.

Quality Backups and Low Risk guys like Mark Sanchez get about 5 million on average with about 2 of that guaranteed and a salary in the 3-5 range.

I don't see Hoyer fitting into any of these categories of QBs. Where he probably fits closest is in the aging starter category even though he's not close to retirement age. This category really only has 2 guys on it (Carson Palmer and Matt Schaub). Both were signed to be starting QBs but they were short term contracts because they are near the end of their careers. Hoyer isn't close to the end of his career but he probably will get a 'prove it' contract that will be short in years like these guys.

Palmer: 49.5 Contract, 16.5 per year, 14 Gtd for 3 years
Schaub: 13.5 Contract, 6.75 per year, 8 Gtd, 2 years

They look very different but no backup/low risk guy even approaches 8 million guaranteed and no Long Term Starter signed a 3 year deal. So Palmer probably represents the absolute high end of what Hoyer can get while Schaub is the low end. My guess is the Browns do something along the lines of 3 years 40 million with 14-15 guaranteed.

All of that assuming we can come to an agreement with him. It's also possible we designate him as transitional and delay the decision 1 year.

Phills14 said:

I see 4 categories for QBs
1. Elite
2. Long Term Starter
3. Aging starter
4. Quality Backup/take a flyer.
There is a 5th category of rookies but since those guys are slotted into their pay scale I took them out of the picture.

Elite QBs are going to get 100 Million + contracts with 30-60 million guaranteed and a 18-22 million per year cap hit.

Guys that were initially signed to be Long Term Starters are going to get 70-100 Million Contracts with 20-40 guaranteed and 15-20 million per year cap hit.

Quality Backups and Low Risk guys like Mark Sanchez get about 5 million on average with about 2 of that guaranteed and a salary in the 3-5 range.

I don't see Hoyer fitting into any of these categories of QBs. Where he probably fits closest is in the aging starter category even though he's not close to retirement age. This category really only has 2 guys on it (Carson Palmer and Matt Schaub). Both were signed to be starting QBs but they were short term contracts because they are near the end of their careers. Hoyer isn't close to the end of his career but he probably will get a 'prove it' contract that will be short in years like these guys.

Palmer: 49.5 Contract, 16.5 per year, 14 Gtd for 3 years
Schaub: 13.5 Contract, 6.75 per year, 8 Gtd, 2 years

They look very different but no backup/low risk guy even approaches 8 million guaranteed and no Long Term Starter signed a 3 year deal. So Palmer probably represents the absolute high end of what Hoyer can get while Schaub is the low end. My guess is the Browns do something along the lines of 3 years 40 million with 14-15 guaranteed.

All of that assuming we can come to an agreement with him. It's also possible we designate him as transitional and delay the decision 1 year.

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Problem is Brian Hoyer is not as good as Carson Palmer or Matt Schaub were, and it's not even close. Look at their peaks- Palmer led the league in TDs and completion percentage as a 26-year-old in his second season, and Schaub threw for 4,770 yards in 2009- at the time one of the highest single-season totals in NFL history.

Stop lumping Hoyer in with one-time franchise passers like Palmer/Schaub, Hoyer is not at their level as a football player. Is it really this difficult for others to use Kyle Orton and Ryan Fitzpatrick instead?

And anyone even mentioning the transition tag with Hoyer needs to put down the crack pipe. $16 million a year, even if we have the cap room, would be the worst contract in the NFL.

Schaub was coming off a season where he looked washed up when he signed that contract. This year has proven that he is indeed washed up. That is certainly a fair basement.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/gordons-return-gives-browns-different-look-201334386--nfl.html

BEREA, Ohio (AP) -- With Josh Gordon back, quarterback Brian Hoyer has his favorite target again. The Browns want to make sure it's not his only one.

Gordon returned from his 10-game suspension on Wednesday, and Browns coach Mike Pettine joked the ball was ''mysteriously'' thrown in his direction throughout practice. Pettine said Hoyer was ''like a kid with a new toy at Christmas'' with Gordon around.

Pettine said Hoyer has to be careful not to have ''tunnel vision'' just because Gordon, who led the league with 1,646 yards receiving, is on the field.

Gordon was a little sore following his first workout, but Pettine said the star wide receiver is further along than the team expected.

As for Sunday's game in Atlanta, Pettine said it would be tempting to play Gordon for 75 snaps, ''but I don't know if that's the most prudent approach.''

AZ_ said:

Where the argument goes off the rails is when you stop caring about what he does on the field and cop out behind "well he's a winner" simply because THE TEAM won.

It's bullshit to the highest degree. Mark Sanchez was a winner too, until he wasn't. Matt Cassel made millions because he's a winner.

Hoyer needs to prove to be more than just "a winner."

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I agree with the bolded. The reason I point out wins is because we've got people in here saying he's not any good. If you ask me, that's an obnoxious thing to say. Next year, those very people will probably be lamenting Johnny for not being as smart with the ball as Brian.

Where I think he's undervalued is in his brain. People say he's like a Ryan Fitzpatrick? That's not accurate at all. Brian spreads the ball very well, he just doesn't have the greatest accuracy and has a relatively weak arm. It will always be something that will prevent him from becoming an elite quarterback, but that doesn't mean he's not any good.

I wouldn't mind seeing ~7 targets to Gordon on Sunday. 1-2 being right off the bat. Keep the DEF on their toes with him but target Hawkins/Gabriel hard. Maybe even Austin.

If his legs are feeling good, try a couple bombs his way too. The Falcons run D is like swiss cheese, so I would expect to pound it a lot. Might open the field for some Gordon slants/outs.

But absolutely correct, Hoyer can not step back and look in his direction right away every time, he will get slaughtered.

Soda said:

I agree with the bolded. The reason I point out wins is because we've got people in here saying he's not any good. If you ask me, that's an obnoxious thing to say. Next year, those very people will probably be lamenting Johnny for not being as smart with the ball as Brian.

Where I think he's undervalued is in his brain. People say he's like a Ryan Fitzpatrick? That's not accurate at all. Brian spreads the ball very well, he just doesn't have the greatest accuracy and has a relatively weak arm. It will always be something that will prevent him from becoming an elite quarterback, but that doesn't mean he's not any good.

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Whether the next guy will be any good or not is anyone's guess, but in terms of efficiency and production on the field there is definitely an argument to be made that he's not good enough.