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I have a word of advice for the Cavs fans who are completely on the Zion train of thought:
- Try not to get too worked up before the lottery.
- Try not to get surprised by where we end up after the lottery.
- Even if our spot in the end looks awful, don't expect the Cavs to just draft without any extra thought.
Just playing around with the simulation on Tankathon made me realize how likely the Cavs could end up 5th in the draft. But that's the case for everybody now: if the lottery changes stay the same for the next few years, we're gonna see crazy results. But because it's only once in every 360 or so days, we won't get a chance to see how crazy it gets. I mean, hell, there's far better odds for a team to fall 3-4 spots the higher up they are in the lottery...
So we could miss on Zion, Barrett, Morant, etc...
And if that worst case scenario does happen, at least we'll be high enough that we could use that pick to get a real treasure, whatever it is. I could see us doing what Atlanta did with Dallas to get their guy (Young), and vice versa (Doncic).
Also, for our other pick, I wouldn't be surprised if we pulled a draft day deal like we did to get Zeller in 2012. Having extra assets means we have the means to target certain players, even in the second round.
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Even after saying all this sh!t, I truly have no idea what happens. Hell, we could end up with Zion anyways.
Why would you run a simulation when the actual odds are known?