Assume you split the division. That’s 3-3.
Then you have 11 other games, and none of them have KC, Buffalo, Philly, involved.
Let’s say on average you can go 6-5 there. Then we are looking at a 9-8 base case. Let’s assume a std dev of 1 game. We can say then we are 68% probable of a 8-10 win season, and 95% probable of a 7-11 win season. So that’s probably the range. 7-10 on the downside and 11-6 on the upside. Depending on game by game breaks. Considering we went 7-10 last year, despite all the drama, I think we are looking at at least a game or two improvement. So 9-11 wins this year. I’ll guess 10-7.
Every NFL team is looking down the barrel of a similar schedule. While the week 5 bye is shitty from a rest perspective, it could actually benefit the defense giving them an early extra week of practice. And frankly Watson and the offense too.
It’s the off-season, so stay positive. It’s the only chance we get.