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2023 NFL/Browns Predictions

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DJTJ said:
If Washington wins only 3 games, I’ll be absolutely flabbergasted.

There’s a legit shot that all three WC teams come from the NFC East.
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That's a lot of believe in Daniel Jones and Sam Howell.
 
Guys, all of these teams aren't SF. Brock Purdy wasn't the reason SF made it to the NFCCG. The have arguably the best roster in the league outside of the QB position and that's what carries them. The reality is that 7 teams have to make the playoffs in the NFC.

NO is a good team that had bad QB play. Derek Carr isn't a bum. He's easily the best QB in their division and they're a top 5 team in the NFC with good QB play.

MIN is the most complete team outside of PHI and DAL in the NFC. They can take a step back and still cruise to a division title this season.

The NFC is a weak conference. Overall PHI, DAL, and SF are probably better teams than both NO and MIN but there are factors that I believe can hold PHI, DAL, and SF back which is why I can see NO and MIN making the NFCCG.
 
Los216 said:
MIN went 13-4 last season. They are head and shoulders better than any team in their division.
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Pretty much any statistical model out there will tell you Minnesota was one of the flukiest/luckiest teams in NFL history last season.

DVOA ranked them as the 27th-best team in the league.

Pythagorean expected wins, which estimates a team’s record based on point differential, gave the Vikings 8.4 wins last year.

They went 11-0 in one-score games which is a near statistical impossibility.

sports.yahoo.com

The Vikings’ 13-4 record was a historic anomaly. Will their luck run out in the playoffs?

The Vikings have more in common with teams that missed the playoffs than made them, and yet they'll host a first-round playoff game.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com
 
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Also,

Some of those teams who made the playoffs last season have got to be out this year if we make it and the consensus seems to be that NYJ will make it too. So which 2 AFC playoff teams are not making it this season. I think DEN replaces LAC and NYJ are the only team to make it from the AFC East.

So goodbye to BUF and MIA.

CLE, DEN, NYJ in. BUF, LAC, MIA out.
 
CBBI said:
Pretty much any statistical model out there will tell you Minnesota was one of the flukiest/luckiest teams in NFL history last season.

DVOA ranked them as the 27th-best team in the league.

Pythagorean expected wins, which estimates a team’s record based on point differential, gave the Vikings 8.4 wins last year.

They went 11-0 in one-score games which is a near statistical impossibility.

sports.yahoo.com

The Vikings’ 13-4 record was a historic anomaly. Will their luck run out in the playoffs?

The Vikings have more in common with teams that missed the playoffs than made them, and yet they'll host a first-round playoff game.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com
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Do the rest of their division. I don't think DET is going to be as good as people are pegging them up to be.

My point about MIN is that I think they will statistically be a better team than they were last season and that their division is terrible. I also think that they have a pretty decent schedule.
 
Didn't the Saints lose to the Panthers twice last year? Didn't Baker Mayfield beat them? And now one year later they get a slightly above average QB and we have them going to the SUPER BOWL?
 
Los216 said:
Do the rest of their division. I don't think DET is going to be as good as people are pegging them up to be.

My point about MIN is that I think they will statistically be a better team than they were last season and that their division is terrible. I also think that they have a pretty decent schedule.
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2022 Expected Wins v. Actual Wins
Lions 9.1 expected, 9 actual
Packers 8.5 expected, 8 actual
Vikings 8.4 expected, 13 actual
Bears 5.2 expected, 3 actual

The other thing to consider is that the Vikings lost a SHITLOAD of defensive starters. Guys who played huge snap counts for them last season.

Players Gone from 2022
Patrick Peterson: 1105 snaps, 17 GP, 17 starts
Eric Kendricks: 1095 snaps, 17 GP, 17 starts
Chandon Sullivan: 945 snaps, 17 GP, 10 starts
Cameron Dantzler: 505 snaps, 10 GP, 9 starts
Za'Darius Smith: 771 snaps, 16 GP, 16 starts
Dalvin Tomlinson: 551 snaps, 13 GP, 13 starts
Duke Shelley: 397 snaps, 11 GP, 5 starts

All of these guys are gone from one defense all at once. And I'm sure in some cases it's addition by subtraction, but that's a shitload of new starters to break in.
 
Selby said:
Didn't the Saints lose to the Panthers twice last year? Didn't Baker Mayfield beat them? And now one year later they get a slightly above average QB and we have them going to the SUPER BOWL?
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Didn't The Saints beat The Browns last year and now a year later we have slightly above average QB play and we have them going to the Super Bowl?

NO beat PHI last year and PHI went to the Super Bowl. What's your point?

CAR, TB, and ATL are worse this year. NO made the biggest improvement in that division and they weren't a terrible team last year.
 
Los216 said:
Didn't The Saints beat The Browns last year and now a year later we have slightly above average QB play and we have them going to the Super Bowl?
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No. We do not have them going to the Super Bowl. You do. I have them missing the playoffs.
 
Los216 said:
Didn't The Saints beat The Browns last year and now a year later we have slightly above average QB play and we have them going to the Super Bowl?

NO beat PHI last year and PHI went to the Super Bowl. What's your point?

CAR, TB, and ATL are worse this year. NO made the biggest improvement in that division and they weren't a terrible team last year.
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Didn't Atlanta bring in Jessie Bates, a ton of defensive line help, and drafted both their bellcow RB to fit their coach's scheme plus an additional great piece to add to what was already one of the best offensive lines in football?

Care to tell me how they got worse? My only guess is that you're going to say losing Mariota, who is an awful QB and got benched last year for Ridder.
 
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