2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread

Tondo said:

Exactly.

Tells us more about what the poster thinks about upside or how the poster thinks scouts think about it. Has nothing to do with reality

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Potential = how well they inspire dreams of big dongs

PPark said:

I’m a bit confused. Could someone define “high upside”? Because of the players being referenced in the thread it appears one tool (raw power) is being utilized to define high upside rather than—if you will—the sum of a players tool belt or the common usage of high upside.

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Well, in Florial's case I would say he has a high upside IF he can develop the ability to lay off high fastballs out of the zone and foul off high fastballs in the zone. And to know the difference. His upside is based on both power and a good eye for the strike zone. Just power alone doesn't cut it.

Florial's walk percentage is the third highest on the Guardians behind Fry and Bo, and it's not like pitchers are intimidated and pitching around him. His out-of-zone swing percentage is 30%, which is pretty good for a young player. It's better than Josh, Jose, and Gimenez so far this year.

For a guy in his first year on a new team trying to earn playing time and getting sporadic opportunities, I expected him to be a lot more aggressive and chase more bad pitches. He's a pretty patient hitter, which surprised me.

These are small samples, of course, but I think they're encouraging.

I'd say his "high ceiling" is based on a combination of power, plate discipline, and a good eye for the zone. Lay off the high cheese and hunt low pitches you can pull, Estevan.

Wham with the Right Hand said:

Well, in Florial's case I would say he has a high upside IF he can develop the ability to lay off high fastballs out of the zone and foul off high fastballs in the zone. And to know the difference. His upside is based on both power and a good eye for the strike zone. Just power alone doesn't cut it.

Florial's walk percentage is the third highest on the Guardians behind Fry and Bo, and it's not like pitchers are intimidated and pitching around him. His out-of-zone swing percentage is 30%, which is pretty good for a young player. It's better than Josh, Jose, and Gimenez so far this year.

For a guy in his first year on a new team trying to earn playing time and getting sporadic opportunities, I expected him to be a lot more aggressive and chase more bad pitches. He's a pretty patient hitter, which surprised me.

These are small samples, of course, but I think they're encouraging.

I'd say his "high ceiling" is based on a combination of power, plate discipline, and a good eye for the zone. Lay off the high cheese and hunt low pitches you can pull, Estevan.

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Florial seems to know what a strike looks like. He misses a bunch of them at times but they go very far when he hits them. Like they did with Bobby Bradley, it would be nice to see what 300-400 ABs look like in the numbers. If he can hit anywhere near .250, there are going to be a lot of HRs in there. But he might end up at .200 like Bradley and that won't get it done.

CalBuckeyeRob said:

Florial seems to know what a strike looks like. He misses a bunch of them at times but they go very far when he hits them. Like they did with Bobby Bradley, it would be nice to see what 300-400 ABs look like in the numbers. If he can hit anywhere near .250, there are going to be a lot of HRs in there. But he might end up at .200 like Bradley and that won't get it done.

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If only j-ram knew what a strike looks like!!!!That ab against Dubin tonight was THE WORST ab I've seen in my 78 years of watching baseball.Does he have a brain??? All he had to do was stand there and we score another run.Is there still such a thing as a take sign?Any little leaguer could understand this,and Vogt should talk to Ramirez.He is supposed to be a team leader,or is he above being reminded of this? Josh Naylor is also at fault,swinging at the first pitch from a guy who can't find the strike zone.You know,if we continue playing with our heads up our asses,we will finish under five hundred.We have been VERY lucky all year,and things will change for the worst soon if we continue this stupidity. Thanks for letting me vent,but I am still angry.

HOUSTON — The Guardians returned Tuesday to a venue that haunted them last season. Their 2023 campaign officially crumbled at Minute Maid Park. They were no-hit by Framber Valdez. They traded away Aaron Civale and Josh Bell. Their front office flew to town the morning after the trade deadline to ease tensions in a testy clubhouse.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the (team’s) play?

This time, the Guardians entered their lone trip to Houston with the best record in the American League. And as the calendar flips to May, it’s a good time to assess who’s trending in the right (and wrong) direction.

Stock Up


Steven Kwan

Kwan sits behind only Salvador Perez on the AL batting average leaderboard. He leads the AL with 42 hits and he reached base five times on Tuesday.

Kwan has appeared in 28 of the Guardians’ 29 games. How impressive are 42 hits in a 28-game span to start the season? Over the last 65 years, only four other Cleveland players have matched that feat: Victor Martinez (2006, 2009), Ronnie Belliard (2004), Juan Gonzalez (2001), Manny Ramirez (1995, 1999).

Kwan is up to his usual shenanigans: He ranks fourth in the majors in strikeout rate and has the best whiff rate in baseball. The league-average whiff rate is 24.8%. Kwan’s is 7.7%.

He’s also been a bit more aggressive, swinging more often and earlier in the count, which explains the decrease in his walk rate and the increase in home runs. He’s leveraging his contact ability and strike zone awareness into more damage in advantageous counts and on pitches he knows he can handle. The result? Manager Stephen Vogt’s dream leadoff hitter.


Josh Naylor

There’s no questioning his status as an everyday middle-of-the-order hitter. Last year, Naylor demonstrated he could conquer lefties. This year, he’s proving it was no fluke, as he entered the week with a 1.030 OPS against southpaws. (He’s actually been better against lefties than righties this season.)

We knew he had power — he should cruise past his career high of 20 homers this year — but now he’s married that strength with contact ability and a newfound selectiveness at the plate. He ranks in the 96th percentile in strikeout rate and has trimmed his chase rate from 39.5% to 28.1%. That’s a huge leap and a pivotal difference-maker for his hitting profile. He’s always been a free swinger who can make loads of contact, but that can lead to weak contact on pitches out of the zone. Now that he’s resisting such pitches, he’s working counts, walking more and identifying pitches he can wallop. Hence, the seven home runs, seven doubles and a walk rate not much lower than his strikeout rate. That’s José Ramírez-esque.

Kyle Manzardo

There’s an alternate universe in which the Guardians signed José Abreu to a hefty three-year deal 16 months ago, one reminiscent of the contract they handed Edwin Encarnación six years prior. Abreu instead signed with the Astros. He had a rough 2023 season and his stats and metrics were so gruesome this season that the Astros — with his approval — packed his bags for West Palm Beach to figure out if there’s any thunder left in his bat.

Now imagine if Abreu was a Guardian, with a .269 OPS and $19.5 million salaries for this season and next.

The first-base picture in Cleveland looks far less bleak, partly because of those two trades the front office swung during the Houston series last summer. Naylor has cemented himself as a lineup centerpiece and Manzardo has readied himself for the big leagues. Entering Tuesday, Manzardo had buried a slow start and boasted a .299/.381/.575 slash line at Triple-A Columbus. He spent last season at Triple A, too, so it’s not as though there’s much left for him to gain from facing minor-league pitching. He and Naylor could share first base and designated hitter duties, while leaving some opportunities for David Fry (whose stock is also soaring) to start or José Ramírez to rest his legs.

Aside from Kwan, Naylor and Fry, no hitter has outperformed expectations, yet the club ranks fifth in the majors in runs per game. Slotting Manzardo in the middle third of the order could help to extend that strong start.


Stock Down


Starting rotation

Well, it’s not all their fault. This stock market can be unforgiving. It feels like they’re missing a frontline starter or two … because they are, with Shane Bieber absent, Gavin Williams sidelined and Triston McKenzie searching for his top form.

Credit to Ben Lively for submitting three impressive starts against the Red Sox and Braves. It’s hard to ask too much from 37-year-old Carlos Carrasco, but he’s placed a burden on the bullpen, with a 6.59 ERA and only 27 1/3 innings in six starts. Tanner Bibee delivered the start of the year against Atlanta over the weekend. The Guardians need him to take the reins of the rotation. They also need McKenzie and Logan Allen to find a rhythm.

Cleveland’s pen has provided an admirable effort for the first month, but the group deserves a few stress-free games, a trip to a day spa, or both.


Ramón Laureano

Estevan Florial’s occasional flash of power keeps him off this list for now, as he offered a reminder with a three-run blast Tuesday night as to why the Guardians traded for him over the winter.

As for Laureano, he’s drawn some walks, but his .212 slugging percentage speaks louder than any other number. The Guardians are paying him $5.15 million this season and he’s a rare right-handed stick on a team full of left-handed hitters. But they need more out of their investment.


José Ramírez’s patience

This seems pretty straightforward. Patience is a virtue in baseball, too. Then again, that’s easy to say when you’re not the one standing in the batter’s box, tasked with deciphering whether the little sphere zipping toward you is going to smack the catcher’s glove at 97 mph or spiral toward the dirt at a mere 91 mph.

The way Kwan and Naylor have frequented the basepaths, though, a more selective Ramírez could really spur the offense. There’s nothing overly alarming about the actual quality of his contact or the contact itself. Per usual, he’s nearly impossible to strike out or get to swing and miss. But because of that contact ability, when he chases pitches out of the zone, it’s not beneficial contact. It is pop-ups to the shallow outfield.

Ramírez had a slow start last season, too. He’s too skilled a hitter not to go on a tear at some point. But more than anything, the drastic drop in his walk rate is jarring.

Nice article on Manzardo’s potential promotion or lack thereof:


HOUSTON -- The Guardians don’t need another hitter at the moment. That is a strange sentence to write based on how they struggled to score runs last year.

After 29 games, however, the offensive side of manager Stephen Vogt’s club is humming along. They’ve shown the ability to play small ball, big ball, bunch their runs and come from behind.

What they need is pitching. A starter, or two, who can consistently get into the sixth or seventh inning before their bullpen crumbles and turns to dust before the All-Star break.

Pitching, especially starting pitching, is hard to acquire. Ironic? Of course it is.

The Guardians have made a habit of trading starting pitching. It was like they couldn’t help themselves. Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer come to mind.

They were able to do it because they always had young arms waiting and at the ready. Well their current group of young arms is already in the big league rotation or injured. Which has put this season, despite a 19-10 start, in jeopardy.

The Guardians have always been pragmatic. If they can’t add more pitching, why not more offense? Chris Antonetti, president of baseball operations, always weighs two sides of the equation -- run production or run prevention.

If the pitching staff can’t prevent runs from scoring, perhaps the offense can outscore their deficiencies.

Which is a long way of getting to Kyle Manzardo, the Guardians first base prospect at Class AAA Columbus
What needs to happen for the Guardians to promote Manzardo?

For one thing he has to be playing well. For another there has to be a need on the big league club. That need has to go hand-in-hand with Manzardo getting a legitimate opportunity to prove himself in the big leagues.

Manzardo, acquired from the Rays at the deadline last year for Civale, is fulfilling his end of the deal.

He’s hitting .304 (28 for 92) with seven doubles, seven homers and 18 RBI in 25 games. Manzardo, a left-handed hitter, has struck out 19 times, walked 14 times and posted a .996 OPS.

In the last nine games, he’s hitting .364 (12 for 33) with six homers and nine RBI. He is knocking on the door and they can hear it in Cleveland.

Is there a need for Manzardo?

Well, he plays first base and only first base. That means he’s not going to replace Josh Naylor, who is having an All-Star season. Naylor is hitting .282 (29 for 103). He leads the team with seven homers and is tied for the lead in RBI with Jose Ramirez at 24.

But the Guardians do not have a fulltime DH. They’ve been rotating players through that position. It’s one of the ways Vogt has kept his 13 position players involved on a game-by-game basis.

Cleveland is one of two teams that still has the same position players that it opened the season with on March 28 in Oakland. Vogt has done a good job keeping them engaged and they’ve done a good job for him.

He has used six players at DH with Estevan Florial leading the way with nine starts followed by Ramirez at six, Will Brennan at five, Josh Naylor at four, David Fry at three and Bo Naylor at two.

If the Guardians promote Manzardo, he’d have to be in the lineup on a regular basis. Since he’s not going to replace Josh Naylor at first, he would have to get the majority of at bats at DH. That would untrack what has been a big part of this team’s early-season success.

Truth be told, that’s one of the reasons Manzardo didn’t make the team out of spring training. The Guardians didn’t feel they could guarantee him 500 plate appearances at DH/first base.

Manzardo, of course, could turn that potential problem into an advantage by continuing to hit as he has in Columbus if and when he’s promoted to Cleveland.

Josh could play some right field. Bring him up. The team needs him right now.

jmilo said:

So your solution is to eliminate Freeman.

I think that out of JRod, Florial, Brennan and Freeman, Tyler has the likeliest shot at becoming a solid major leaguer.

So, I guess that's something we disagree on. Let's see how it plays out.

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No, not neccassarily. He would probably become my utility player.

Tyler might have the likeliest shot at becoming a major leaguer of the 4 you listed(although 3 of them are already major leaguers), but he has the lowest floor.

Clearly we disagree, but what you can't disagree with is that this OF is probably toward the bottom in production again. It lacks thump when compared to other good teams and we aren't making that power up on the infield to offset it either.

We don't have the SP at this time to offset the lack of punch either.

Tondo said:

Exactly.

Tells us more about what the poster thinks about upside or how the poster thinks scouts think about it. Has nothing to do with reality

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WTF do you know about "reality"? I love the denial and then the suggestion of "nothing to do with reality".

PPark said:

I’m a bit confused. Could someone define “high upside”? Because of the players being referenced in the thread it appears one tool (raw power) is being utilized to define high upside rather than—if you will—the sum of a players tool belt or the common usage of high upside.

Click to expand...

High upside is based upon the ability to produce and power plays a huge role in that, but it isn't just "raw power". This team is lacking in that department currently and throwing a bunch of high BA hitters(who aren't hitting for high BA right now) at the problem will do nothing to resolve it. I'm confused how this is such a difficult concept to grasp. It's blatantly obvious when you look at playoff contenders and especially when you narrow it down to those teams that win WS.
As longs as up to 1/2 of this lineup is of the light hitting ilk then we'll continue to be early exits in the playoffs when we make it. The state of our SP might not get us there now.

Hey, maybe you think they're better off leaving Manzardo and Rodriguez in AAA. Whatever, I'm cool with that, but I know what the results will be. Where I'm "a bit confused" is with the infatuation with mediocre players that don't possess the ability to be much more than average.

Manzardo and Rodriguez both go deep in their game last night and Hentges with another scoreless 2 IP.

CDAV45 said:

Manzardo and Rodriguez both go deep in their game last night and Hentges with another scoreless 2 IP.

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Hentges is ready/good to go.. the multi-inning role can be more than a little useful given the lack of length from the current Guardian starters... Perhaps by the weekend?

Gson said:

Hentges is ready/good to go.. the multi-inning role can be more than a little useful given the lack of length from the current Guardian starters... Perhaps by the weekend?

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I believe that is what they said Gson.

CDAV45 said:

No, not neccassarily. He would probably become my utility player.

Tyler might have the likeliest shot at becoming a major leaguer of the 4 you listed(although 3 of them are already major leaguers), but he has the lowest floor.

Clearly we disagree, but what you can't disagree with is that this OF is probably toward the bottom in production again. It lacks thump when compared to other good teams and we aren't making that power up on the infield to offset it either.

We don't have the SP at this time to offset the lack of punch either.

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I feel like Kwan is an incredible producer. The only real issue is that our RF might very well be towards the bottom of the league again.

I get that you want to focus on power, but it's clear that isn't how we're going to win. Some power is nice and necessary, but we're going to have to win at the areas that aren't as highly monetized.

rich/buffalo said:

If only j-ram knew what a strike looks like!!!!That ab against Dubin tonight was THE WORST ab I've seen in my 78 years of watching baseball.Does he have a brain??? All he had to do was stand there and we score another run.Is there still such a thing as a take sign?Any little leaguer could understand this,and Vogt should talk to Ramirez.He is supposed to be a team leader,or is he above being reminded of this? Josh Naylor is also at fault,swinging at the first pitch from a guy who can't find the strike zone.You know,if we continue playing with our heads up our asses,we will finish under five hundred.We have been VERY lucky all year,and things will change for the worst soon if we continue this stupidity. Thanks for letting me vent,but I am still angry.

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I vented in the game thread. Naylor swung at the first pitch four at-bats in a row and made five outs, grounding into an inning-ending double play with the bases loaded and one out in the 10th. Did he really think he was going to get a fastball down the middle on the first pitch? Especially after swinging at the first pitch three times in a row?

Incredibly stupid.

He and Jose needed to get at least one run home so the Astros' automatic runner would not tie the game in the bottom of the 10th if he scored. Imagine if Kwan didn't make that catch to end the game. It probably goes to the 11th and our bullpen gets even more taxed. But Jose and Josh put up two awful at-bats with the game on the line.

In his first at-bat Naylor got ahead 2-0. He obviously expected Verlander to throw something in the zone. Wrong! Verlander threw him a fastball above the zone that Naylor chased and the result was an easy fly ball.

I see this all the time with Jose as well. They get ahead 2-0 and gear up for a big swing, thinking this one has to be a strike. It isn't and they either get themselves out chasing a bad pitch or give away a strike. It's so frustrating.