As the calendar flips to May, it’s a good time to assess who in Cleveland is trending in the right (and wrong) direction.
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HOUSTON — The Guardians returned Tuesday to a venue that haunted them last season. Their 2023 campaign officially crumbled at Minute Maid Park. They were no-hit by Framber Valdez. They traded away Aaron Civale and Josh Bell. Their front office flew to town the morning after the trade deadline to ease tensions in a testy clubhouse.
Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the (team’s) play?
This time, the Guardians entered their lone trip to Houston with the best record in the American League. And as the calendar flips to May, it’s a good time to assess who’s trending in the right (and wrong) direction.
Stock Up
Steven Kwan
Kwan sits behind only Salvador Perez on the AL batting average leaderboard. He leads the AL with 42 hits and he reached base five times on Tuesday.
Kwan has appeared in 28 of the Guardians’ 29 games. How impressive are 42 hits in a 28-game span to start the season? Over the last 65 years, only four other Cleveland players have matched that feat: Victor Martinez (2006, 2009), Ronnie Belliard (2004), Juan Gonzalez (2001), Manny Ramirez (1995, 1999).
Kwan is
up to his usual shenanigans: He ranks fourth in the majors in strikeout rate and has the best whiff rate in baseball. The league-average whiff rate is 24.8%. Kwan’s is 7.7%.
He’s also been a bit more aggressive, swinging more often and earlier in the count, which explains the decrease in his walk rate and the increase in home runs. He’s
leveraging his contact ability and strike zone awareness into more damage in advantageous counts and on pitches he knows he can handle. The result? Manager Stephen Vogt’s dream leadoff hitter.
Josh Naylor
There’s no questioning his status as an everyday middle-of-the-order hitter. Last year, Naylor demonstrated he could conquer lefties. This year, he’s proving it was no fluke, as he entered the week with a 1.030 OPS against southpaws. (He’s actually been better against lefties than righties this season.)
We knew he had power — he should cruise past his career high of 20 homers this year — but now he’s married that strength with contact ability and a newfound selectiveness at the plate. He ranks in the 96th percentile in strikeout rate and has trimmed his chase rate from 39.5% to 28.1%. That’s a huge leap and a pivotal difference-maker for his hitting profile. He’s always been a free swinger who can make loads of contact, but that can lead to weak contact on pitches out of the zone. Now that he’s resisting such pitches, he’s working counts, walking more and identifying pitches he can wallop. Hence, the seven home runs, seven doubles and a walk rate not much lower than his strikeout rate. That’s José Ramírez-esque.
Kyle Manzardo
There’s an alternate universe in which the Guardians signed José Abreu to a hefty three-year deal 16 months ago, one reminiscent of the contract they handed Edwin Encarnación six years prior. Abreu instead signed with the Astros. He had a rough 2023 season and his stats and metrics were so gruesome this season that the Astros — with his approval — packed his bags for West Palm Beach to
figure out if there’s any thunder left in his bat.
Now imagine if Abreu was a Guardian, with a .269 OPS and $19.5 million salaries for this season and next.
The first-base picture in Cleveland looks far less bleak, partly because of those two trades the front office swung during the Houston series last summer. Naylor has cemented himself as a lineup centerpiece and Manzardo has readied himself for the big leagues. Entering Tuesday, Manzardo had buried a slow start and boasted a .299/.381/.575 slash line at Triple-A Columbus. He spent last season at Triple A, too, so it’s not as though there’s much left for him to gain from facing minor-league pitching. He and Naylor could share first base and designated hitter duties, while leaving some opportunities for David Fry (whose stock is also soaring) to start or José Ramírez to rest his legs.
Aside from Kwan, Naylor and Fry, no hitter has outperformed expectations, yet the club ranks fifth in the majors in runs per game. Slotting Manzardo in the middle third of the order could help to extend that strong start.
Stock Down
Starting rotation
Well, it’s not all their fault. This stock market can be unforgiving. It feels like they’re missing a frontline starter or two … because they are, with
Shane Bieber absent, Gavin Williams sidelined and Triston McKenzie
searching for his top form.
Credit to Ben Lively for submitting three impressive starts against the Red Sox and Braves. It’s hard to ask too much from 37-year-old Carlos Carrasco, but he’s placed a burden on the bullpen, with a 6.59 ERA and only 27 1/3 innings in six starts. Tanner Bibee delivered the start of the year against Atlanta over the weekend. The Guardians need him to take the reins of the rotation. They also need McKenzie and Logan Allen to find a rhythm.
Cleveland’s pen has provided an admirable effort for the first month, but the group deserves a few stress-free games, a trip to a day spa, or both.
Ramón Laureano
Estevan Florial’s occasional flash of power keeps him off this list for now, as he offered a reminder with a three-run blast Tuesday night as to why the Guardians traded for him over the winter.
As for Laureano, he’s drawn some walks, but his .212 slugging percentage speaks louder than any other number. The Guardians are paying him $5.15 million this season and he’s a rare right-handed stick on a team full of left-handed hitters. But they need more out of their investment.
José Ramírez’s patience
This seems pretty straightforward. Patience is a virtue in baseball, too. Then again, that’s easy to say when you’re not the one standing in the batter’s box, tasked with deciphering whether the little sphere zipping toward you is going to smack the catcher’s glove at 97 mph or spiral toward the dirt at a mere 91 mph.
The way Kwan and Naylor have frequented the basepaths, though, a more selective Ramírez could really spur the offense. There’s nothing overly alarming about the actual quality of his contact or the contact itself. Per usual, he’s nearly impossible to strike out or get to swing and miss. But because of that contact ability, when he chases pitches out of the zone, it’s not beneficial contact. It is pop-ups to the shallow outfield.
Ramírez had a slow start last season, too. He’s too skilled a hitter not to go on a tear at some point. But more than anything, the drastic drop in his walk rate is jarring.