15th Roster Spot?

[catfish]

Dont get the logic at all. How is the Haywood contract worth the Sanders contract?

 

[LeShaq]

Dont get the logic at all. How is the Haywood contract worth the Sanders contract?

Sanders is supposedly going to be bought out.

At that point, I think, a team can pay Sanders whatever they want, not Sanders' original contract amount. The new team and Sanders then have to agree on a new contract, I believe.

Haywood would be dealt, in this scenario, both to free up his contract amount and to clear a roster spot (or two, if Harris goes with him).

Cavs currently have one open roster spot. That could increase to 2-3 spots if Haywood and Harris are dealt.

If Haywood and Harris were to be dealt, then my guess is it would be for a non roster commodity (like a draft pick) so that the roster spots are open. Unless Haywood is traded for someone like Jameer Neslon or something. Or else we could deal Haywood and get back a player or players we then intend to release.

None of this may happen. But if we were to acquire Allen/Nelson/Sanders, then something like this scenario could happen.

 

[LeShaq]

Nelson also could get bought out, supposedly. So if we wanted to add the three pieces mentioned above, this might be the status of the three players we could add.

Allen ==== free agent (FA) currently
Nelson === may be bought out; then a FA
Sanders == may be bought out; then a FA

 

[Sir John]

I repeatedly see people talk about acquiring Jameer Nelson as if that is some sort of upgrade over Delly.

I want someone to make the case, not just assume it's true because you've heard of Jameer.

It seems clear to me that they are about the same player, with the same level of NBA effectiveness. There isn't even a big split in their offensive/defensive skills.

Based on the player that Nelson is NOW -- not seven years ago -- why do people think he's better than Delly?

Or, answer this way: why would Nelson help the Cavs win any more than Delly?

 

[catfish]

The latest is that Sanders refused the buy out

 

[BimboColesHair]

I repeatedly see people talk about acquiring Jameer Nelson as if that is some sort of upgrade over Delly.

I want someone to make the case, not just assume it's true because you've heard of Jameer.

It seems clear to me that they are about the same player, with the same level of NBA effectiveness. There isn't even a big split in their offensive/defensive skills.

Based on the player that Nelson is NOW -- not seven years ago -- why do people think he's better than Delly?

Or, answer this way: why would Nelson help the Cavs win any more than Delly?

Don't even bother...made the same point about every one of the backup PGs that are being brought up in here multiple times (excluding Mo Williams, who was the best of all that were mentioned, but is no longer available) and people still bring up Nelson, or Cole, or Farmar, or Robinson, or Bobby Brown on a daily basis. They are brought up on a name only basis because people don't realize how bad they have been recently (or how bad they were in the NBA when they played in the case of Bobby Brown). There are no good options being linked to the Cavs, or anyone in need of a back up PG for that matter, now that Mo was dealt. Makes no sense unless there is a player out there that isn't being brought up publicly.

 

[gourimoko]

I repeatedly see people talk about acquiring Jameer Nelson as if that is some sort of upgrade over Delly.

I want someone to make the case, not just assume it's true because you've heard of Jameer.

It seems clear to me that they are about the same player, with the same level of NBA effectiveness. There isn't even a big split in their offensive/defensive skills.

Based on the player that Nelson is NOW -- not seven years ago -- why do people think he's better than Delly?

Or, answer this way: why would Nelson help the Cavs win any more than Delly?

Nelson and Dellavedova aren't remotely similar players..

Delly is a lockdown defender, but not a very good point guard. He's not a good shooter from midrange, but has a good 3 pointer. He's also got a limited offensive skillset.

Nelson is not a lockdown defender. But he is a fairly solid facilitator. He's got a decent, yet very streaky, midrange game. He's also historically decent from 3. When he's hot, he can be an effective option on offense in multiple ways (not just from 3).

Neither guy is a worldbeater, and my preference is to keep Delly. I see no reason to add Nelson that stands out enough to warrant trading for him; let alone using a roster spot.

But the two players are not interchangeable. They provide very different skills and functions to the Cavs.

For example, you can play Nelson next to Irving and James and have Nelson run the point effectively (better than either Irving or James). Not so much with Delly.

So the idea might be to add a facilitator to the Cavs backcourt who can come off the bench when needed, and that allows Irving to continue playing off-the-ball. Also it might be yet another PG to remind LeBron he isn't best served as the Cavaliers point guard.

 

[LeShaq]

I repeatedly see people talk about acquiring Jameer Nelson as if that is some sort of upgrade over Delly.

I want someone to make the case, not just assume it's true because you've heard of Jameer.

It seems clear to me that they are about the same player, with the same level of NBA effectiveness. There isn't even a big split in their offensive/defensive skills.

Based on the player that Nelson is NOW -- not seven years ago -- why do people think he's better than Delly?

Or, answer this way: why would Nelson help the Cavs win any more than Delly?

Ok, gourimoko already addressed this but I'll say some more on the matter.

First of all, I like Delly. No one is saying Delly is going to be off the team or that Delly should not be an option at all moving forward for the rest of the 2014-15 season. Including in the playoffs.

Second, we only have two point guards on the roster at this time. With the constant talk about wanting to get a backup point guard, it stands to reason that if we add players to the team, one of them is likely to be a point guard. So someone has to fit that bill, and that someone could be Nelson. According to Windy, at least.

Third, as gourimoko pointed out, Nelson and Delly have different skill sets. Delly is more defensively inclined whereas Nelson is more offensively inclined. At the very least, that gives the team more options to throw at an opponent rather than only having Delly.

Fourth, Nelson is a solid facilitator as gourimoko stated. He's better at that role than Delly is, I think. But to be fair to Delly, I believe Blatt has used him as much as he has this year because Delly will come in and help the team run Blatt's offense. Still, I think Nelson is a better and more natural point guard than Delly is.

Fifth, Nelson may be able to help the offense out with spacing. Delly is a better career 3 point shooter than Nelson is (38% vs 37%), but defenses seem to leave Delly wide open a decent amount. Which means the rest of the floor is cramped up for guys like LeBron. Nelson is a more established 3 point threat than Delly is, and that might help our spacing a bit. Think of how we looked against the Bulls with Love out.

Sixth, Nelson can still put up some scoring punch here and there. Probably more so than Delly can be called upon to do. Nelson has 13 double digit scoring games this season, Delly has 5. That scoring punch could come in handy for a game or two in the playoffs.

Seventh, Nelson is a veteran who is proven. He's been to the finals (although he was hurt and sub par in the 2009 finals), he's been to the playoffs. Delly has not been to either yet. Teams often like to have the 'steady vet' on hand for such occasions because they feel they know what they will get. For example, Nelson has the exact same 3 point percentage (37%) in the playoffs as he does in the regular season. The stage is not too big for him. He's been there, done that. I think Delly is a clutch player who will perform well on the big stage, but if you are seriously seeking a title this year then you don't have the luxury to find out Delly is not such a player in the playoffs. You have to be prepared.

Eighth and finally, Nelson could be injury protection in case either Irving or Delly gets hurt. Again, if you are seriously going for a ring this year, then you don't want an injury to take you out of the running if you can prevent it.

Nelson is not a savior and he may not be better than Delly at this point. I honestly don't care if we get him or Brown or Bynum. Hopefully we can just get one of them and that person can play his role well. It doesn't matter to me if it's Nelson, specifically, or not. But I could see why the team may favor Nelson in this situation over some of the more unproven guys.

Nelson is likely a Cleveland short timer if he comes here. But if he can help us compete better for a title this season, then I'm all for getting him. And based upon what Windy is saying, the Cavs may feel the same way.

 

[Sir John]

Nelson and Dellavedova aren't remotely similar players..

Delly is a lockdown defender, but not a very good point guard. He's not a good shooter from midrange, but has a good 3 pointer. He's also got a limited offensive skillset.

Nelson is not a lockdown defender. But he is a fairly solid facilitator. He's got a decent, yet very streaky, midrange game. He's also historically decent from 3. When he's hot, he can be an effective option on offense in multiple ways (not just from 3).

Neither guy is a worldbeater, and my preference is to keep Delly. I see no reason to add Nelson that stands out enough to warrant trading for him; let alone using a roster spot.

But the two players are not interchangeable. They provide very different skills and functions to the Cavs.

For example, you can play Nelson next to Irving and James and have Nelson run the point effectively (better than either Irving or James). Not so much with Delly.

So the idea might be to add a facilitator to the Cavs backcourt who can come off the bench when needed, and that allows Irving to continue playing off-the-ball. Also it might be yet another PG to remind LeBron he isn't best served as the Cavaliers point guard.

I'm glad that we agree on the conclusion which is that Nelson isn't an upgrade over Delly.

Although it's funny that I'm not sure we arrive at the same conclusion in the same ways.

For example, I think you might have (accidentally?) reversed each player: Opposite of what you wrote, Nelson is a slightly better defender than Delly; Delly is a slighter better offensive player than Nelson.

It's also possible that you are remembering the Jameer of year's past, not the Jameer of today.

[Of course, this is quibbling since we end up at the same place.]

But just to show it to others -- not you -- let's use this as a point of comparison. When we break it down, others will see just how trivial the difference is between them this year:

DEFENSE:

First of all, Delly isn't a lockdown defender (man, I wish). He's actually a slightly worse defender than Nelson, though I wonder if it reaches statistical significance.

Delly's Defensive Win Shares is .2 (that's not good, and a FAR cry from "lockdown defender.")
Nelson's Defensive Win Shares is .6 (that's also not good but actually a tad better than Delly.)

If you prefer adjusted plus/minus to box score measures:
Delly's Defensive Plus/Minus is -2.1 (that's not good at all.)
Nelson's Defensive Plus/Minus is -1.4 (that's a tiny bit better but negligible.)

The are about the same at defense.


OFFENSE:

First of all, in general, Delly is actually an overall marginally BETTER offensive player than the Jameer of today.

Delly's Offensive Win Shares is .6
Nelson's Offensive Win Shares is .0


Two point Mid-Range shooting (you didn't define, so let's break it down between 5-20 feet):
Delly: 5-9ft: 29% 10-14ft: 38% 15-19ft: 20%
Nelson: 5-9ft: 25% 10-14ft: 33% 15-19ft: 26%

Delly is actually a BETTER mid-range shooter than Nelson at 2 out of 3 mid-range areas.


Three point shooting:
Delly is hitting .402 on the season.
Nelson is at .339 this year.

As far as "facilitating" goes:
Jameer has slightly more assists per 36 than Delly but he also has more turnovers per 36, 2.7 vs 1.6.

Delly and Nelson's eFG% is nearly identical.



Conclusion: Nelson and Delly are remarkably similar players at this point in their respective careers. There's really no statistical argument for preferring one over the other.

However:

One MIGHT try to argue that Nelson has playoff experience, which Delly does not.

To the extent that we find that valuable, or needed, on this team, that could be a benefit. About the only potential one that I can see.

Of course, it comes with certain downsides, including that Nelson's usage rate is higher than Delly's.

You could argue that Nelson will decide that his playoff experience entitles him to do more things with the ball during playoff games. Sometimes these dudes have that psychology ("I've been here, I know what to do, you don't, give me the ball"), so that would have to be checked out.

Obviously, we don't want either one of them using the ball too much as there are much better players that ought to have it.

 

[LeShaq]

The latest is that Sanders refused the buy out

Yep. That's disappointing. I would love to have him on the team. He and Mozgov together might be all we need at center for years to come. Oh well, we will see how things play out.

 

[Sir John]

Eighth and finally, Nelson could be injury protection in case either Irving or Delly gets hurt. Again, if you are seriously going for a ring this year, then you don't want an injury to take you out of the running if you can prevent it.

Most of your post I answered above in response to G.

I will say that if the idea is to get a third PG on the team for depth, then maybe Nelson makes sense.

Most people have been saying (or implying) that Nelson is an UPGRADE over Delly. I hope we've put that to rest.

If we're just talking about a backup to our backup, okay, maybe.

But now it gets to a specific question of: TRADING for Nelson.

Trades imply that assets are surrendered. Maybe that won't be the case with Nelson. Or the asset surrendered will be so laughably minor as to have no meaning. But I don't know what that trade would look like.

NO WAY would I give up Joe Harris for a half-season rental of Jameer Nelson. That's crazy lopsided.

Otherwise, I think a team could pick up a backup to our backup PG any number of places, from China to the D-League to a buyout to a dude sitting home right now, picking his nose.

 

[WorldBoFree]

Delly is NOT a lock down defender.

 

[gourimoko]

I'm glad that we agree on the conclusion which is that Nelson isn't an upgrade over Delly.

Although it's funny that I'm not sure we arrive at the same conclusion in the same ways.

For example, I think you might have (accidentally?) reversed each player: Opposite of what you wrote, Nelson is a slightly better defender than Delly; Delly is a slighter better offensive player than Nelson.

It's also possible that you are remembering the Jameer of year's past, not the Jameer of today.

[Of course, this is quibbling since we end up at the same place.]

But just to show it to others -- not you -- let's use this as a point of comparison. When we break it down, others will see just how trivial the difference is between them this year:

DEFENSE:

First of all, Delly isn't a lockdown defender (man, I wish). He's actually a slightly worse defender than Nelson, though I wonder if it reaches statistical significance.

Delly's Defensive Win Shares is .2 (that's not good, and a FAR cry from "lockdown defender.")
Nelson's Defensive Win Shares is .6 (that's also not good but actually a tad better than Delly.)

If you prefer adjusted plus/minus to box score measures:
Delly's Defensive Plus/Minus is -2.1 (that's not good at all.)
Nelson's Defensive Plus/Minus is -1.4 (that's a tiny bit better but negligible.)

The are about the same at defense.


OFFENSE:

First of all, in general, Delly is actually an overall marginally BETTER offensive player than the Jameer of today.

Delly's Offensive Win Shares is .6
Nelson's Offensive Win Shares is .0


Two point Mid-Range shooting (you didn't define, so let's break it down between 5-20 feet):
Delly: 5-9ft: 29% 10-14ft: 38% 15-19ft: 20%
Nelson: 5-9ft: 25% 10-14ft: 33% 15-19ft: 26%

Delly is actually a BETTER mid-range shooter than Nelson at 2 out of 3 mid-range areas.


Three point shooting:
Delly is hitting .402 on the season.
Nelson is at .339 this year.

As far as "facilitating" goes:
Jameer has slightly more assists per 36 than Delly but he also has more turnovers per 36, 2.7 vs 1.6.

Delly and Nelson's eFG% is nearly identical.



Conclusion: Nelson and Delly are remarkably similar players at this point in their respective careers. There's really no statistical argument for preferring one over the other.

However:

One MIGHT try to argue that Nelson has playoff experience, which Delly does not.

To the extent that we find that valuable, or needed, on this team, that could be a benefit. About the only potential one that I can see.

Of course, it comes with certain downsides, including that Nelson's usage rate is higher than Delly's.

You could argue that Nelson will decide that his playoff experience entitles him to do more things with the ball during playoff games. Sometimes these dudes have that psychology ("I've been here, I know what to do, you don't, give me the ball"), so that would have to be checked out.

Obviously, we don't want either one of them using the ball too much as there are much better players that ought to have it.

Sir John, you gotta watch them play. You can't just go off of their stats, especially for these two players, and make these kinds of conclusions. It's an incomplete argument.

Using (R)APM for either player to determine who is the better defender makes no sense (error is too large to make meaningful conclusions). Rather than going back over this, it's covered largely on GotBuckets' website and also in the Wiggins thread.

Nelson is undoubtedly the better facilitator and the better scorer. Your use of FG% is only a single way of measuring this, but it's not accurate because Delly has only been in the league for two years and has never averaged more than 4 shots a game. When discounting spot up 3's, he's averaging just under 2 shots a game from anything within the arc.

You can't extrapolate from these figures and make the conclusions you have, it's not scientifically or mathematically sound.

I don't want to drag this thread into another debate regarding the merits of statistical analysis with respect to basketball players versus the "eye test." I'm not trying to make an argument either way, I suppose, especially since we both come to the same conclusion.

 

[Green Lantern]

Well you guys forgot one thing that separates Nelson from Delly..
The most important thing...
Nelson's jumper looks authentic.
Delly looks like he's doing the old Olympic weight throw.

 

[LeShaq]

Most of your post I answered above in response to G.

I will say that if the idea is to get a third PG on the team for depth, then maybe Nelson makes sense.

Most people have been saying (or implying) that Nelson is an UPGRADE over Delly. I hope we've put that to rest.

If we're just talking about a backup to our backup, okay, maybe.

But now it gets to a specific question of: TRADING for Nelson.

Trades imply that assets are surrendered. Maybe that won't be the case with Nelson. Or the asset surrendered will be so laughably minor as to have no meaning. But I don't know what that trade would look like.

NO WAY would I give up Joe Harris for a half-season rental of Jameer Nelson. That's crazy lopsided.

Otherwise, I think a team could pick up a backup to our backup PG any number of places, from China to the D-League to a buyout to a dude sitting home right now, picking his nose.

If Joe Harris is traded, my guess is that he will not be dealt to acquire Jameer Nelson. I mean, he could be part of a Haywood-for-Nelson deal, but I don't think Harris would be part of such a deal with the end goal just being Nelson. I think Harris gets dealt only if we either want an open roster spot (not for Nelson) or else we're getting someone back who makes a certain salary that Haywood's contract, itself, won't cover.

Just doing some quick math, it looks like the Cavs can trade Haywood for Nelson straight up. The salaries are pretty close (Nelson's apparent salary is within 125% of Haywood's apparent salary), so that would seem to work.

Also, there has been some talk about Nelson being bought out, I think. That would make it even easier for the Cavs to acquire him as then they would not have to make a trade to get him.