2012 Offseason: Quarterbacks

[Smooth]

Doerschuk is the best Browns beat writer, IMHO... He knows better than any of the other beat writers what's going inside of Berea and what is likely to happen... He has an extremely good feel for the team and the FO... I've read him long enough to know he knows his stuff and knows the right people...

 

[Shakalu M.D.]

Doerschuk is the best Browns beat writer, IMHO... He knows better than any of the other beat writers what's going inside of Berea and what is likely to happen... He has an extremely good feel for the team and the FO... I've read him long enough to know he knows his stuff and knows the right people...

Just the insight I was looking for when I asked about him. Obviously I didn't have much time to look through his stuff, but I didn't particularly like his insight. But if you say he has the pulse of the team, I'll take your word for it.

Specifically the article that rubbed me the wrong way was the one where he said Heckert was on the hot seat. The only thing I can really complain about with Heckert is his FA policy, but I completely understand it. I've been very impressed with his drafts.

 

[Sly]

He makes some bold predictions from time to time and paints himself into a corner, especially involving coaching staffs, and ends up alienating himself. I do like the way that he comes up with some thought provoking articles with factual information. I don't agree that Heckert is on the hotseat, however. Other than the fact that things with the Browns can turn ugly in a hurry, I think he's one of the safest people in the organization and as safe as you can get in the NFL really.

Here's that article: http://www.cantonrep.com/browns/x1353881281/Heckert-on-hot-seat

Other than the title and the last comment, he doesn't make a case for Heckert being on the hotseat, just provides the current roster situation. Quite frankly, given that Holmgren has assumed responsibility for the QB situation, I think the case made is that Heckert has done a fine job.

 

[bigjmac0815]

If he's not tagged give him a shot but I can't see us giving a lot of money to a qb whos started 2 nfl games

 

[Phills14]

I love how the talent evaluators and 'insiders' think it's a foregone conclusion the rams are trading out of the #2 pick even before free agency happens. The rest of the world are taking it as if it is gospel too. I think there is a decent chance RG3 is available at #4 when we pick. Is it a lock? Absolutely not but it's not a lock that StL is trading out either. Here is how I see it.

Teams needing a QB immediately: Cleveland #4, Washington #6, Miami #8, Seattle #12
Teams possibly looking at QB: Kansas City #11, Arizona #13, Jets #16, Denver #25

Looking at the Draft Countdown's Trade Value Chart (http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php) it's an enormous challenge for anyone outside of the top 10 to trade up to the #2 pick. In order to go from #11 (KC) to #2, KC will have to trade #11 (1,250pts) + 2nd rounder (470 pts) + a future first rounder to come close to equaling the value of the #2 pick (2,600 pts). That's a haul for KC to give up and I don't see any team willing to sacrifice that much for a player they need but can get buy without.

Now take a look at it from the St Louis perspective, moving down 9 spots would net them the 3rd best LT which at #11 would be a reach at that point in the draft, the 2nd best WR which is a big drop off, 2nd best CB, in the mix for the 1st DT off the board of a very deep DT draft, and the 2nd or 3rd best LB/DE. So tell me, why does St Louis trade out of the top 10 again, even if they get that haul?

Next up is Miami. I think of the QB hungry teams, Miami is the one that is guaranteed to have a new QB next season. Between Joe Philbin's experience with Matt Flynn and Mike Sherman's experience with Ryan Tannehill, I'd put a lot of money on one of those 2 ended up in Miami next year, essentially taking RG3 off the board for them. Plus it would take #8, 2nd rounder and probably next year's 1 for #2 and something (3rd or 4th rounder in 2013). Still that's a risk for St Louis, especially if they are targeting Riley Rieff.

Washington in my opinion is the true threat. That threat is gone if they address the need in free agency with either Flynn or Peyton Manning. However; if they go into the draft without addressing the QB, I believe the Browns will have to move up because Washington will get aggressive. A package similar to what Miami will have to put on the table is what Washington will throw out there. Is that better than the #4 and #22 this year? Might be, maybe not if they feel they can get the guy they want at 6.

Bottom line, it will depend on what Washington does in Free Agency or if we feel Matt Flynn is the right guy. The rest of the teams I don't think matter all that much.

 

[The Hill]

I'm not a fan of Flynn, at all. Obviously, if we got him I'd hope he does well. But I just don't think he'll be good as a starter.

He only had one year as a starter in college, and in that year he only completed 56% of his passes despite having two wide receivers who would go on to play in the NFL (Early Doucet and Brandon LaFell). All the current elite NFL QBs had completion percentages above 60% in college.

A lot of the Flynn support comes from his two games as a starter. But there is danger in basing that opinion on such a small sample size. He had fortunate matchups against the Patriots in 2010 (one of the worst teams against the pass) and an already-in-the-playoffs Lions team in Week 17 last season. The Lions also were bad against the pass, and finished No. 22 in pass defense last season.

In 2010, Flynn also played the majority of a game in which Aaron Rodgers had to leave due to injury. That game was also against the Lions, and he fared poorly (15-26, 177 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT).

I understand that there is also risk in drafting a QB out of college with no NFL experience (like I hope we do with Griffin). However, we have nearly 1,200 pass attempts we can evaluate with Griffin, and only 569 pass attempts (pro and college) with which we can evaluate Flynn.

There is such a small sample size with Flynn that I can't get comfortable with us spending a lot of money (or trading picks) to get him. I would much rather us draft Griffin, even if it means giving up the No. 22 pick. If he is a franchise QB, then it will be well worth trading that pick.

 

[Derek]

@McClain_on_NFL
RG3 is 6-2, 3/8, 223. Some, including me, thought he might be closer to 6-1 but it's official. That's a good start for the Baylor QB.
1 hour ago

 

[The Hill]

Looking at the Draft Countdown's Trade Value Chart (http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php) it's an enormous challenge for anyone outside of the top 10 to trade up to the #2 pick. In order to go from #11 (KC) to #2, KC will have to trade #11 (1,250pts) + 2nd rounder (470 pts) + a future first rounder to come close to equaling the value of the #2 pick (2,600 pts). That's a haul for KC to give up and I don't see any team willing to sacrifice that much for a player they need but can get buy without.

This chart would actually look different now. In the last collective bargaining agreement, rookie salaries (especially at the top of the draft) took a hit. This makes picks at the top of the draft even more valuable since there is less risk attached from a salary standpoint. This doesn't do a lot to eliminate Washington from our pursuit of RG3, but it does hurt the cases of teams like Seattle and Miami since our No. 4 pick is even more valuable than it would have been under the old CBA.

Bottom line, we have the inside track on Griffin no matter how you look at it. If our front office believes he is a franchise QB, we will get him. That is, assuming Daniel Snyder doesn't do something insane and offer three first rounders for him.

 

[col63onel]

for those of you totally convinced the packers are going to franchise tag flynn, please explain to me why flynn would not accept the 14.5 million dollar offer, and do it all again next year? plus where is GB getting the cap space to do such a thing.

Because then he won't be able to get 3x that much with a new team.

 

[Phills14]

If Washington can't secure the #2 pick prior to free agency (March 13th) I bet they move on from RG3 and address their QB position through free agency. If they can't outbid the Browns by that time they probably won't be able to do it and will be forced to either select Tannehill way too early or be left out in the cold without a QB going next year. At least, that is how I would play it if I were the Skins. With the Skins out of the picture, I don't see any serious competition for the #2 pick which means St Louis will keep the pick and we will end up with RG3 at 4.

St Louis would be smart to make a move sooner rather than waiting for the draft because they could have significantly less options available and may end up wasting the opportunity.

 

[MalTalm]

Because then he won't be able to get 3x that much with a new team.

Why not? Green Bay can still trade him after he has signed the tag... And then he can re-negotiate the contract with his new team.

 

[*L-Train*]

nice little nugget from Peter King about RG3's meeting with the Browns:

NFL scouting combine last Friday night, the next generation of pro quarterbacks did 15-minute speed-dating interviews with team after team. Baylor's Robert Griffin III went from discussing his peripatetic military upbringing with Chiefs coach and fellow Army brat Romeo Crennel, to explaining the Baylor route tree to Browns president Mike Holmgren, to talking three- and five-step pass drops with Eagles coach Andy Reid. "Our route tree is almost infinite," Griffin told the Cleveland coaching and scouting party. The room fell silent.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1195420/index.htm

 

[AZ_]

No way man, it's just a spread offense! :chuckles:

 

[speedyd718]

nice little nugget from Peter King about RG3's meeting with the Browns:

NFL scouting combine last Friday night, the next generation of pro quarterbacks did 15-minute speed-dating interviews with team after team. Baylor's Robert Griffin III went from discussing his peripatetic military upbringing with Chiefs coach and fellow Army brat Romeo Crennel, to explaining the Baylor route tree to Browns president Mike Holmgren, to talking three- and five-step pass drops with Eagles coach Andy Reid. "Our route tree is almost infinite," Griffin told the Cleveland coaching and scouting party. The room fell silent.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1195420/index.htm

Someone explain to me if this is good or bad? Is he saying he can make every throw on the tree anywhere on the field?

 

[polska2211]

Someone explain to me if this is good or bad? Is he saying he can make every throw on the tree anywhere on the field?

he's saying that the offense that he ran at baylor isn't elementary at all. i take it as: the browns were surprised at his knowledge of the intricacies of an advanced passing attack.