Nobody is arguing that it is. Though I don't recall many QBs with as little experience as CJ has having any success at the NFL level.
Right, which if you read my post, I said you weren't arguing it. But, indeed, people do. I'm on a football fan forum too and that is everyone's favorite barometer.
In addition, Tom Brady started 25 games, which, assuming Cardale starts every game this season, is between 4-7 more games. Joe Flacco had 26 starts. So, at what point is the brightline? I obviously haven't seen a quarterback drafted with as few starts as Jones that has had success, but unless you can find a brightline with logical that demonstrates
why that is the case, I don't understand the argument.
I wasn't comparing them as players. So there's also that.
But you did? You said, and I quote here, "And believing in big games against elite defenses has some sort of translation to the NFL is how you end up with people thinking Johnny Manziel is a first round selection." So you did compare people wanting to draft Cardale -- or the rationale established for wanting to draft Cardale -- to that which existed for Johnny. My point is that is a ridiculous comparison because the two QBs couldn't be further apart. The rationale for drafting Johnny was entirely emotional, as he had nearly no NFL intangibles. The rationale for drafting Cardale has
everything to do with his NFL-like qualities.
You can always find exceptions to the rule, and nobody is arguing that it's the only barometer. But there is clear correlation to experience, combining that with the right talent is usually the recipe for success.
But these aren't strict "exceptions" because I came up with those six without having to think of anything. I guarantee you, after doing a bit of research, I can find a lot more. And, if I'm correct, five out of those six were first round picks. So clearly, people who scout for a living, thought they were talented. So the whole statement that both a lot of college starts needs to be mixed with talent is, frankly, meaningless. Each quarterback is different and no strict rule should be applied.
Now, if I am misunderstanding you, and you are saying college starts is
a -- read, not "the" -- tool to evaluate quarterbacks, and that is a negative against Cardale, then I totally see where you are coming from. But if you are trying to use it as evidence why any team drafting Cardale in the first would be doing so mainly because of hype (which is how I'm reading it, correct me if I'm wrong), then I take issue with that.