The 2015 NBA draft will have a hard time living up to the 2014 edition, which boasted one of the best talent pools in memory. But that doesn't mean next year's draft will be a disappointment. There's still plenty of talent to go around. Our first 2015 Big Board showcases two very strong No. 1 candidates at the top and highlights a number of interesting big men who fans and front offices alike will soon be excited about. Altogether, the group should include somewhere between three and five future All-Stars. Still, it's not the type of class that will cause teams -- other than the Philadelphia 76ers -- to jostle for picks or gut their rosters and tank. The day after the draft, we debuted our first Top 100 of 2015. That list represented the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs regarding each prospect's relative NBA value. Our Big Board, on the other hand, dives deeper, taking a more detailed look at the draft's top 30 players -- essentially, those who are most likely to be selected in the first round. By tracking player movement and stock fluctuation and by taking into account the latest intel from scouts, we do our best to draw a complete picture of who will take the stage at the draft next June. The biggest takeaway from this year's version? If you need a big man, this is your year. If you need a guard -- well, better luck next time. Now, without further ado: our first Big Board of 2015.
1Jahlil OkaforCOLLEGE: DukeHT: 6-11WT: 275POS: C
As we learned with Joel Embiid, size eventually outweighs just about everything else come draft time. At 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and 9-foot-3 standing reach, Okafor is absolutely massive. And he has enormous hands and quick feet for a player his size to boot. As a true low-post player with a fairly sophisticated low-post game for his age, Okafor will no doubt intrigue whatever team ends up picking first. But despite his size, Okafor lacks elite athleticism and typically plays below the rim. If he were a better athlete, and if he were in better shape, he'd be a lock for the No. 1 pick. As it stands, he'll likely be the focal point of Duke's offense this season, which should give him plenty of chances to outshine any concerns about his game. If the team drafting No. 1 is in need a center, Okafor is a lock for the job.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
2Emmanuel MudiayCOLLEGE: SMUHT: 6-5WT: 196POS: PG
The news that Mudiay would skip his freshman season at SMU and instead play overseas this season sent shock waves through the college basketball crowd. But among NBA circles this won't move the needle much, if at all. Yes, Mudiay's departure hurts SMU. Yes, Mudiay will miss the chance to be coached by Larry Brown. But after watching Dante Exum pass on heading to college last year and still end up as top-5 pick in a loaded draft, does anyone seriously think Mudiay playing overseas is going to scare off GMs? Mudiay was the best player at the Nike Hoop Summit in April. Among the 30-plus GMs and scouts I surveyed, he was one of only two players (Okafor was the other) to be mentioned as a potential No. 1 pick. If he was smart, he'd shut it down completely, hire an agent and trainer like Exum did and spend the year training for the draft. He'd be impossible to pick apart then. If he goes overseas, he'll likely struggle like most young point guards do there. Scouts already expect him to struggle, so doing so won't hurt his stock. NBA folks are obviously bummed they don't get to see him play college ball for a year, but the effect on his draft stock should be minimal. He'll stay at No. 2 and I'd be shocked if he slides much from that spot.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
3Karl Towns Jr.COLLEGE: KentuckyHT: 7-0WT: 245POS: C
Scouts love Towns, who has terrific skills for a player of his size. Towns can shoot from anywhere on the floor and plays with a pretty high basketball IQ. Still, questions abound about his toughness. And his situation at Kentucky -- potentially buried behind Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson -- makes his position near the top of the board tenuous. It remains unclear whether Towns will get the playing time needed to justify such a high selection.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
4Kristaps PorzingisCOLLEGE: LatviaHT: 6-11WT: 220POS: PF
Porzingis was the darling of the 2014 draft for a few weeks before stunning the NBA and pulling out just before deadline. That decision could be good or bad for Porzingis, whose projection as a late lottery pick to mid-first-rounder was based on limited scouting. If he gets more playing time and continues to improve, he has the potential -- and the size and athletic ability -- to be a very high pick. However, if he struggles in Europe or if scouts begin to pick him apart, he could fall -- and fall far. Of all the players in the top 10, Porzingis and Myles Turner have the most volatile draft stock.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
5Myles TurnerCOLLEGE: TexasHT: 7-0WT: 240POS: C
Based purely on his physical abilities and talent, Turner should probably be rated No. 2 on our Big Board. He has elite size, length and athleticism for the center position. He can run the floor like a guard and get up off the floor. He has the touch on his jump shot to play in the high post. He's just not as far along in his development as Okafor and Towns are. Scouts wonder just how much impact Turner will have at Texas as a freshman. But a big season for Turner isn't out of the question. Andre Drummond was surrounded by similar concerns during his freshman year with the UConn Huskies. A year later, he went ninth. We're going to be patient with Turner on the Big Board in the early going. It could be a while before he starts playing up to this spot. But he has considerable top-five potential, and deserves the benefit of the doubt.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
6Cliff AlexanderCOLLEGE: KansasHT: 6-8WT: 251POS: PF
Alexander is a monster. He's 18 and has the body of a 30-year-old NBA power forward. He has long arms, is an explosive leaper and just attacks the rim on both ends of the floor. Every time he gets near the rim, he's looking to dunk. The questions around Alexander center on his lack of elite size for his position (he measures just 6-foot-8 in sneakers) and a low basketball IQ. Alexander plays based purely on instinct. He struggles to make reads on the defensive end and to remember plays. Thomas Robinson is probably a perfect comp for him. He should have a big freshman season for Kansas, but NBA scouts will likely remain a bit wary.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
7Justise WinslowCOLLEGE: DukeHT: 6-6WT: 222POS: SF
Winslow is blessed with an NBA body, strength and athleticism. He plays with great energy on both ends of the floor. He's the Michael Kidd-Gilchrist of this draft and should be a big-time player for Duke this year. His jump shot and handle are his biggest weaknesses right now, though it appears he's improved his jump shot already this summer. If he starts shooting it well, he could move up another three or four spots on our board.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
8Stanley JohnsonCOLLEGE: ArizonaHT: 6-7WT: 237POS: SF
Johnson will battle Winslow as the first small forward off the board. But there are a lot of mixed feelings from scouts here. Some have Johnson third on their draft board behind Okafor and Mudiay. They think he's the most NBA-ready player in the draft. They say he plays with terrific energy, he already has an NBA body, he rebounds and defends and can score from anywhere. Others fear he might be the second coming of Shabazz Muhammad, the former UCLA Bruins guard who struggled for the Minnesota Timberwolves this season. In high school, Johnson was able to bully his way all over the court. I don't see him doing that in college. He's not an elite athlete and he will need to develop a better jump shot to excel on the offensive end. He will also likely be playing behind Rondae Hollis-Jefferson this season, unless Arizona moves him or Jefferson out of position to play at the 2.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
9Mario HezonjaCOLLEGE: CroatiaHT: 6-7WT: 200POS: SF
Hezonja has the talent to be a lottery pick. He's a long, athletic wing who can shoot and score from anywhere on the floor. He's a good athlete and has a terrific basketball IQ. His lack of playing time in Spain and questions about his selfishness kept him from being a lottery pick last season. But teams expect him to see more run this season in the ACB. If he produces, he's an elite prospect who could move up four or five spots come draft time.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
10Kelly OubreCOLLEGE: KansasHT: 6-7WT: 204POS: SF
Oubre is a gunslinger, with all the good and bad the description implies. He's a terrific athlete who can finish above the rim, and he's a good -- albeit streaky -- 3-point shooter. But he doesn't have a midrange game or much of a handle. He's the kind of guy who's either launching a 3 or dunking at the rim. And his personality can be polarizing. He reminds me a bit of a young J.R. Smith.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
11Chris WalkerCOLLEGE: FloridaHT: 6-9WT: 195POS: SF
Walker is an upside guy. He had to sit much of the last season with academic issues. When he did return to the floor, he played a bit role on a veteran Gators team. This season, though, he's expected to see a significant increase in minutes. Blessed with elite athletic abilities and length, the question for him will be whether he can make the transition from the 4 to the 3. If he can get his jump shot falling with regularity, he'll be a very attractive pick as a Paul George-esque wing.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
12Willie Cauley-SteinCOLLEGE: KentuckyHT: 7-0WT: 220POS: C
Cauley-Stein is a junior and people are still raving about his upside. Scouts still believe Cauley-Stein could be special. He's a late bloomer who has been learning the game at Kentucky. As he's gotten stronger and more confident, he's turned into a terrific shot-blocker and defender. If Cauley-Stein can show some major improvement offensively this season, he'll have a good shot of cracking the lottery.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
13Montrezl HarrellCOLLEGE: LouisvilleHT: 6-8WT: 235POS: PF
Harrell had a terrific sophomore season before shocking NBA scouts with his decision to return to Louisville. Given the dearth of size in last year's draft, he likely would've been a late-lottery/mid-first-round pick. He has many things that scouts love to see in a big man's toughness, a terrific motor, and great athleticism. But he's going to have to develop offensively if he wants to stay in contention for a lottery pick.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
14Rondae Hollis-JeffersonCOLLEGE: ArizonaHT: 6-7WT: 205POS: SF
A number of scouts felt Hollis-Jefferson would've been a lock for the first round had he decided to leave Arizona last season. He's another aggressive and athletic small forward who is a jump shot away from dominance. Hollis-Jefferson will face some stiff competition with Stanley Johnson at his position this season. But if he continues to improve, I still think he could hear his name called before Johnson. He's a better athlete. That's a big deal at the next level.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
15Bobby PortisCOLLEGE: ArkansasHT: 6-11WT: 231POS: PF
Portis had a very good freshman season at Arkansas, though it largely went unnoticed by NBA scouts. He has good size and length for his position and he's versatile: He can score both inside and outside. He will need to get better on the boards and continue to show scouts he's willing to work in the paint -- about 60 percent of his shots last season were jumpers. He shot a terrific 78 percent at the rim last year, but just 36 percent on his jumpers.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
16Wayne SeldenCOLLEGE: KansasHT: 6-5WT: 230POS: SG
Selden drew a lot of fanfare last summer after dominating various NCAA summer camps, but got lost in the shuffle behind Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid at Kansas. An ailing left knee that required arthroscopic surgery over the summer also slowed him down and took away much of his bounce. Now, with Wiggins and Embiid gone, he should be the focal point of the offense. If he's as good his sophomore season as scouts thought he was last summer, Selden could still end up being a lottery pick and Kansas could be very dangerous next season.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
17Tyus JonesCOLLEGE: DukeHT: 6-1WT: 170POS: PG
This draft isn't nearly as stocked at point guard as 2014's was. At 17, Jones is the second-ranked point guard on our board. He's a true point guard -- a pass-first, high basketball IQ guy who shows great balance between passing and scoring. But he's not an elite athlete, which drops his ranking some. Still, if Tyler Ennis can go 18th in last year's draft, Jones easily could find himself picked in the middle of the first round.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
18Sam DekkerCOLLEGE: WisconsinHT: 6-8WT: 215POS: SF
Dekker was a favorite of the analytics crowd after a very effective freshman season, but he came back down to earth a bit as a sophomore. He has size and athleticism for his position, but his jump shot accuracy faded significantly as a sophomore and damaged his draft stock. There are a lot of teams still interested, but he'll need to bounce back as a junior.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
19Ron BakerCOLLEGE: Wichita StateHT: 6-3WT: 213POS: PG
After a terrific run in the tournament as a freshman, Baker started getting first-round looks as a sophomore, when scouts began to see him as a point guard at the next level. He's a very good shooter with deep range. But scouts are going to want to see him with the ball in his hands more, and he's going to have to improve his defense considerably.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
20R.J. HunterCOLLEGE: Georgia StHT: 6-5WT: 185POS: SG
Hunter is a silky-smooth shooting guard who really knows how to put the ball in the basket. He's an excellent shooter with deep range and is especially lethal when he gets his feet set. He's not an elite athlete and needs to add strength. However, his play at LeBron James' camp this summer convinced a lot of scouts that he could be a mid- to late-first-round pick this year.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
21Jordan MickeyCOLLEGE: LSUHT: 6-8WT: 235POS: PF
Before Mickey stole their affection, scouts started the season very excited about Jarrell Martin, another LSU freshman. Mickey's long, he's an explosive finisher around the basket (he shot 77 percent at the rim), and he's a terrific shot-blocker. He also showed off an effective midrange game, shooting 39 percent on 2-pointers. If he gets stronger and adds range to his jump shot, he'll move up the board.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
22Jabari BirdCOLLEGE: CaliforniaHT: 6-6WT: 190POS: SG
Bird was getting first-round looks last year as a freshman before a midseason injury knocked him out of the lineup and off his game once he returned. However, his terrific play in the NIT reminded scouts just how good Bird can be at his best. This is a weak draft for shooting guards, and Bird's got prototypical size and athleticism for the position. But he needs to shoot better next year and develop a better game all around. His lack of rebounds and steals are a concern for scouts.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
23Marc GarciaCOLLEGE: SpainHT: 6-6WT: 180POS: SG
After Porzingis and Hezonja, Garcia is considered the next best European prospect. He doesn't turn 19 until March, but he's already shown great promise as an elite scorer who can shoot it from deep and get to the rim. He has a high basketball IQ and is a good passer. His lack of elite athleticism keeps him a little lower on our board.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
24Justin JacksonCOLLEGE: North CarolinaHT: 6-7WT: 200POS: SF
North Carolina might have recruits who are rated higher than Jackson, but none who interested NBA scouts as much. Teams are always looking for shooters, and Jackson can shoot it both from deep and midrange. He's a bit older than the rest of his class, and he lacks elite athleticism or strength and can be passive at times, but that sophisticated shooting game is enough to overcome most concerns. Jackson should get minutes right away for the Tar Heels.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
25Ilimane DiopCOLLEGE: SenegalHT: 7-0WT: 230POS: C
Diop is an upside pick. He's blessed with great length and athleticism and showed promise in early tournament play. But he averaged just 3.3 PPG and 2.6 RPG playing about 10 minutes a game for Laboral Kutxa Vitoria in the Euroleague last year. If he develops this year, he's got the physical tools to be a very interesting NBA prospect.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
26Jarell MartinCOLLEGE: LSUHT: 6-9WT: 241POS: PF
Martin was one of the top high school prospects in the country last year. Then, early injuries slowed him down and he was eventually overshadowed by Johnny O'Bryant and fellow freshman Jordan Mickey. He's strong but relies too much on his jump shot. He also lacks great length for his position. But the talent is clearly there. If he gets more time in the post, he could rise.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
27Caris LeVertCOLLEGE: MichiganHT: 6-6WT: 185POS: SF
LeVert was one of the most improved players in the country last year. After getting almost no attention from scouts as a freshman, he's now firmly on the board as a potential first-round pick. He's a great athlete, has range on his jump shot, plays terrific defense and even showed some nice court vision. If he builds on his terrific sophomore season, he'll hear his named called by Adam Silver on draft night.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
28Andrew HarrisonCOLLEGE: KentuckyHT: 6-5WT: 207POS: PG
Harrison was considered a potential lottery pick last summer. Teams love point guards with his size and NBA body. But Harrison struggled as a freshman shooting and playing the point. He turned the ball over a lot and also couldn't really get by people. He improved as the season went on, however, and helped UK back to the NCAA title game. If he shows major improvement as a sophomore, he'll start moving back up the board. I doubt he ever is considered a lottery talent again, but given the dearth of point guards in the draft, a mid-first-round selection isn't out of the question.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
29Brice JohnsonCOLLEGE: North CarolinaHT: 6-9WT: 187POS: PF
Johnson doubled his minutes and his production at North Carolina last year. He's an athletic finisher around the basket, and a good rebounder and shot-blocker. Now that James Michael McAdoo is gone, his minutes totals should tick up even further. His lack of strength will likely hold him back from cracking the lottery, but there's talent here.
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
30Kasey HillCOLLEGE: FloridaHT: 6-1WT: 175POS: PG
Hill played behind Scottie Wilbekin most of the season. When the two played together, Hill was often forced out of position. This season, Hill is the man at the point for the Gators. The top-ranked point guard prospect in that stellar high school class of 2013, Hill has the talent to fill the role. His lack of a great jump shot (he shot a horrific 5-for-35 from 3 last season) probably limits his upside, but he could still end up as the second-best point guard in this class
PREVIOUS RANK: No. NR | PLAYER CARD
On the cusp: Alex Poythress, SF, Jr., Kentucky Wildcats; Branden Dawson, SF, Sr., Michigan State Spartans; Delon Wright, PG, Sr., Utah; Dakari Johnson, C, So., Kentucky Wildcats; Aaron Harrison, SG, Kentucky Wildcats; Frank Kaminsky, C, Sr., Wisconsin Badgers
