Interesting game.
1. Houston was getting whatever it wanted at the rim early and didn't even look for threes early, and I think that surprised the Warriors. The Smith/Howard pick and roll has been working really well. With Howard out, they couldn't go to it or to Harden/Howard. I thought the Rockets contested shots well and controlled the boards early and didn't look outmatched in any way early on.
2. Going through Howard in the post may not work and it was the wrong tactic on McHale's part. Green was able to guard him one-on-one and when the Warriors doubled, Dwight turned it over. Howard has never been good at passing out of double teams an has always turned it over and was terrible tonight. His early 2 missed FTs and 2 early turnovers were costly points that weren't scored or opportunities blown. On the season, Howard's post touches have produced .75 points per possession and that is in the bottom 35% in the league; he turns it over 17.5% of the time from the post. In comparison, his pick and roll touches have produced 1.35 points per possession, which is in the top 5% in the league. Incidentally, LeBron is in the top 2% in PPP (1.42) as the roll man, but he's never in that role.
3. The Warriors came back using Green at the 5. Coming into this game, the Warriors were +63 per 100 possessions using that small ball lineup and that number is going to go up even further after tonight. How amazing it must be to have guys like Green, Iggy, and Barnes who can defend 4s and 5s and rebound well enough to end defensive possessions. Then, on the offensive end, the Warriors are simply faster than the opponents and get so many easy shots in transition. In that 3-4 minute flurry in the 2nd quarter, it was layup after layup. On top of that, those wings can also get offensive rebounds. McHale should have called another timeout to stem the tide, but once the lead was lost, that was it.
4. The Brewer/Ariza/Josh Smith trio can be a devastating defensive lineup and is amazing in transition along with Harden. The Rockets matched the Warriors in fast break points tonight.
5. The Rockets really could have won and might have if Terry hits some wide-ass open threes or T. Jones and or Josh Smith don't blow almost every shot at the rim. But in the playoffs against really good teams, you HAVE to win the game that's in your hands because you don't get those back.
