Fair point and if that is the case, then, trade down with someone in the top 5-6 where an elite franchise player is still available.
However, I don't see how Goff is not an elite prospect.
QBASE analytics has him the third best prospect in the past decade (Mariota and Leftwich slightly ahead) and ninth since 1996. The guys in that top ten cohort, except Leftwich (and Mariota due to insufficient data) are all franchise quarterbacks (Manning, Rodgers, Ben the Rapist, Rivers etc., etc.). The exception, Leftwich, had flags which indicated a strong bust possibility in a meh wonderlic and questions about his work ethic. Goff does not.
Goff also passes the eye test. His fundamentals, ability to make reads and passing ability are either comparable, or surpass, those of other top prospects since 2010. His arm strength is very good but not great, but will improve as he adds muscle. He checks all the boxes of work ethic, intelligence, experience and physical attributes insofar as people are crazy if 6-4 isn't tall enough for the NFL (at 215 at 21 is ideal with a NFL strength program, they'll build him up right). The only reason everyone isn't on the Goff bandwagon is because people have fallen in love with size and speed over all hazards thanks to Cam Newton's coming out party this past season.
Based on every analysis, quantitative and qualitative, Goff is a no-brainer. And, contrary to conventional thinking in terms of best-player available and immediate elite impact, I feel a franchise quarterback is far more valuable to a team over the course of his career than any other position even if it takes three years for him to start.
Of course, if you think Goff is elite, you take him at 2. I just disagree that Goff (or Wentz) is elite. I do think Wentz has a better chance at being an elite NFL QB than Goff..... purely from a physical standpoint.
Over the past two weeks, I've watched nearly every throw Jared Goff made this season. I charted the passes for his game against UCLA and I hope to do it for a couple more games (depending how much free time I have). I charted the passes because I felt like I was seeing an inordinate amount of passes to stationary receivers-- a TON of comeback routes, a lot of throws where the receiver broke or sat on their route to make the catch, etc.
I'm on my phone so I can't pull it up but something like 9 or 10 of his 20+ completions against UCLA were to stationary receivers (something like 3/4 of all completions came from either swing/screens or to stationary receivers). If you watch his USC film, nearly every completion in the 1st half came on a comeback route or swing/screen pass. Not a lot of NFL-like passing routes. Not a lot of hitting the receiver in-stride. This really concerns me for a number of reasons....
I didn't find him to be nearly as accurate with his ball placement as analytics had suggested. I'm a huge believer in analytics, by the way, but I'm not certain they tell the entire story when evaluating a college QB with the different style of offenses in the college game and what not, but nonetheless, it's an evaluation tool so I won't dismiss it completely (unlike Jimmy Haslam and his QB study).
I wouldn't say he was inaccurate with his passes, I just felt he wasn't consistently accurate enough. He'll drop a pass into the bucket 30 yards down the sideline but then he throws the ball well behind his receiver on a little drag pattern or a slant route. These are easy throws he's simply not placing in a catchable position. The reasons, in my estimation, you'll find below....
I guess my biggest concern with Goff is that he's a single read QB whose decision making, mechanics and arm strength breakdown once his first read isn't available. In my opinion, his film kinda bears this out a little. He's really good when he can set his feet and get the ball out quickly but I felt like his accuracy worsened as he was forced to scan the field and his passes felt a little flat to me from time to time (broken rhythm?). He really forced a TON of throws to receivers who were already blanketed too. 13 interceptions this year and a high number of "interceptable" (jump balls, dropped int's, etc.) plays.
He's a first round pick in my mind but just not the elite 2nd overall type of QB (probably mid to late 1st round). I don't want anyone to think that I think Jared Goff is terrible-- he makes 4-5 passes a game that make me think he's a big time QB. But, I think with his inconsistencies and developmental needs, he's a bigger project than most care to admit to because they're desperate for a QB. Of course everyone sees things a little differently and I don't mind if you or anyone else disagree but this is what I see.....
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