Yeah, it was a numbers post. We are all aware of the team accomplishments that he is apart of. The numbers tell a different story.
I wouldn't call that a "numbers post" as if to insulate it from criticism; particularly considering that disagree with the analytical approach to the "numbers" in your post. In my view, "the numbers"
don't tell a different story Ty.
Why are you comparing numbers without even minutes distribution?
If you read my post you'd see that minutes played was the first thing I mentioned since Kyrie's increased number of minutes with steady efficiency is actually a plus, not a negative.
Also because when measuring efficiency you're often measuring across an x-axis of time; meaning, how efficient and how productive is a thing given a certain amount of minutes/hours/years in use. So you don't necessarily normalize with respect to minutes. Typically, and this works for players as well, the more minutes played and more shots taken, the greater the tendency towards lower efficiency.
This is why you can't take someone who averages 15 MPG and 65% true-shooting on 7 FGA and just extrapolate their efficiency out to 36 MPG and 20 attempts. It's not a linear projection.
You're comparing him at 35 minuets per game currently to a lower minute per game total from his rookie season. I know you know better than this and that's why I posted PER 100 possessions.
It's not a question of "knowing better," and with that said, it's worth repeating that mathematics and physics is what I went to grad school for - so yes, I do know what I'm talking about. So with that said, what I'm doing here is demonstrating to you that Irving's efficiency and production being close to the same with respect to his rookie year, yet with increased minutes and attempts, is a
positive attribute - not a neutral, meaningless, or negative one.
He isn't dishing out more assists on a per 100 basis,
He's playing alongside LeBron James.
Analytically speaking, the last several months of this season, particularly December, shows Irving is more than capable of playing the point at a high level. He's capable of this, it's simply not his role on this team. Ignoring this fact, simply because it's not obvious from a cursory glance at BKREF doesn't make much sense.
but he is scoring more and turning it over less, so there is that. Unfortunately it's still at roughly the same exact efficiency.
There's nothing
unfortunate about scoring 24.4 PPG on .568 TS% and .523 eFG while only taking 4.3 FTA/G. That's fairly high-level production. Bump his FTr up compared to someone like Thomas and he'd be among the league best... which begs the question, why isn't Irving drawing fouls? But that's another conversation entirely, and one we've had before.
I guess it's good he has more scoring output without taking an efficiency hit,
That's the point I made previously and again just now; not sure how your first argument makes sense given what you've just said here.
but this isn't elite scoring at an elite efficiency.
At this point in the season, no it isn't say.. Top 5 among his position.
It's nowhere near MVP level and people keep saying future mvp in this thread.
I suppose this depends on how one thinks about the question.
No one suggests that Irving is currently playing at an MVP level, but instead that it's along a natural path of progression for his career given what he's demonstrated thus far. It might take 1, 2, or 4 years before he gets there.
Nonetheless, Irving definitely has the
potential to put up a 50/40/90 season on
at least 25/6/3 which would be near MVP level. I say that because of his ability to shoot, finish and handle the ball.
Moreover, your claim that he's not even close to "elite (MVP) efficiency" isn't exactly accurate; or, at the very least, is likely biased by LeBron and Curry dominating 6 of the last 8 MVP awards:
Since 2000, Irving has posted a historical season-average efficiency higher than the following league MVPs:
00-01:
Allen Iverson (TS & eFG)
01-02:
Tim Duncan (TS & eFG)
02-03:
Tim Duncan (TS & eFG)
03-04:
Kevin Garnett (TS & eFG)
04-05: Steve Nash
05-06: Stave Nash
06-07:
Dirk Nowitzki (eFG)
07-08:
Kobe Bryant (TS & eFG)
08-09: LeBron James
09-10: LeBron James
10-11:
Derrick Rose (TS & eFG)
11-12: LeBron James
12-13: LeBron James
13-14: Kevin Durant
14-15: Steph Curry
15-16: Steph Curry
So in 7 out of the past 16 seasons, Irving's career best efficiency numbers would've been sufficient. The guys ahead of him are Nash, one of the most efficient players in history, and one of the best shooters in history; LeBron James the potential GOAT; Kevin Durant, one of the league's best scorers bar none; and Steph Curry, the best shooter in NBA history.
On that list, and leaving Nash out of the conversation; I think Irving definitely has a shot at coming close to/matching/or even surpassing Curry as an all-around player.
Statistically on an individual basis his career arc has been flat.
No, it hasn't; I've demonstrated this to you already.
Again, this is demonstrably false and you can prove it yourself.
Plot the points for all the variables of Irving's box score year over year and measure the slope. Using any reasonable weighted average, is the aggregate sum positive, negative, or zero?
Here's a hint: his arc isn't flat.
I think why you think it's flat is because you're overvaluing his rookie season without taking it into perspective; it's one of several data-points. Moreover, his advanced stats have not risen very highly since then, and some have declined; but that's not a measure of his overall production as much as it's a measure of his overall efficiency, fit, and his role within the team.
An obvious example of what is meant by this is your comment that Irving generated more assists for his teammates in his rookie season; and yes, while that's true, no one would argue that Irving was a better playmaker then than he is now - to do so would be absurd. The difference here is the elephant in the room; i.e., LeBron James.
A good example of this is the BPM adjustment by teammates playing alongside LeBron James.. Here's a graph of that affect, before, during, and after:
You've not really accounted for this effect on Irving's statistical production, nor have you noted that Irving is the only high-usage player to play alongside LeBron James while actually improving his overall BPM in Year 1.
Lastly as I alluded to in my previous post, you've completely ignored 36+ games played, the most meaningful games played, where Irving is truly elite and truly shines above almost anyone else in the field. Why, I'm not sure.
Just like the earth apparently according to him. Accomplishment wise it has more curves like the actual earth.
Sigh...
