2017-2018 Boston Celtics: No Irving! No Hayward! No Brooklyn Pick!

[gourimoko]

I wouldn't use what the Kings got as a gauge of value and I think everybody can agree with me here.

I'm not sure how we can agree; I mean, his market value is based on the trade that sent him to the Pelicans. So, maybe we thought Cousins was more valuable than he really is.

We might be able to agree that Cousins is undervalued; and that the Kings could've gotten a somewhat better offer -- but there is no evidence they had a substantially better offer than they did. That is to say, no one was offering them Butler or George, which, IMHO, would be available for Irving.

Fuck the Sacramento Kings ownership and front office. They are the most inept and dysfunctional bunch in all of sports.

Right.. but, they're actually a franchise, dealing with other franchises; and if you go to read some of the tweets about the trade, it's curious why so many teams also undervalued Cousins.

This is a team that a year earlier did a salary dump and gave up an unprotected first the year after Cousins was slated to be a free agent, and two pick swaps and they were the ones that included a lottery pick in the deal. So that they could sign free agents headed by the freshly kicked off team Rajon Rondo.

But they didn't trade with themselves.. I think that's the point.

 

[Jscc]

Honestly, I don't know if I would take Curry over Kyrie right now. Golden State can win without him and their record without him is still quite good. They wouldn't have won a championship without him but that's also true for Cleveland with respect to missing Kyrie.

 

[gourimoko]

Honestly, I don't know if I would take Curry over Kyrie right now. Golden State can win without him and their record without him is still quite good. They wouldn't have won a championship without him but that's also true for Cleveland with respect to missing Kyrie.

That's a good point..

I think you need that specific configuration of players and system to bring out the best of what Curry can offer. If you didn't have assurances that you could pair Curry with Klay and Green (or Durant), then I think you have to really re-evaluate how you plan on using him.

 

[Jscc]

I think you need that specific configuration of players and system to bring out the best of what Curry can offer. If you didn't have assurances that you could pair Curry with Klay and Green (or Durant), then I think you have to really re-evaluate how you plan on using him.

Which makes me question how Curry would've developed on those pre-LeBron Cleveland teams that Kyrie had. Would he have done any better?

 

[TyGuy]

I'd add Paul George to that list for sure, and probably in the top 5.

I think Kyrie may be one of the top 5 offensive players in the league. But his defense is...average at best, and that really should bring him down a bit.

I would be extremely happy if his defense was even average.

 

[Jordan]

Nobody here is saying he is ass.

Fair enough. That was exaggeration on my part because I literally don't take this thread seriously anymore.

He isn't performing like a top 5 PG #1 and he isn't playing like a future MVP candidate. It isn't black and white. Just because i'm disappointed in his progression doesn't mean I think he is ass.

Westbrook, Curry, Paul, Thomas, Lowry have all been better this season. That's 5 guys right there. An argument could be made for Wall, Lillard and Conley as well. So realistically he's been the 6th to 9th best point guard in the NBA this season. That's pretty dang good and far from ass like I apparently believe. Especially in the golden era of point guards. Kyrie's talent level on the other hand is top 4 and he's capable of exploding any night unlike some of the guys listed. Unfortunately on average he isn't that guy.

I don't think it is feasible to make an argument that Lillard and Conley have had better seasons without using the same, very flawed metrics that suggest George Hill is better than Kyrie. Just because they are called "advanced" and you don't have the mathematical background to understand them doesn't mean they are bulletproof.

Westbrook, Harden, Curry, and Paul absolutely have had better seasons and are currently better point guards. Lowry is undoubtedly having a better season than Kyrie, and you can make the argument that he is the better point guard. Wall is a bit more iffy, and I think their regular season performance depends on what you want from your point guard. In the playoffs though? A player who can score at ease like Kyrie can is much more valuable on most competitive teams.

Saying Isaiah Thomas is having a better season, objectively, than Kyrie is accurate. Saying he is a better player, though, takes a much higher burden of proof. His defense literally looses Boston games. Like, anyone who criticizes Kyrie for his defense, needs to accept that, by that same metric, Isaiah is a significantly worse player. Their career assist percentages are more or less the same. And Kyrie put together a better playoff run in both 2015 and 2016 than Isaiah Thomas ever has.

Again, I think there is a reason why players and coaches all rate Kyrie as the better player. And Ty, I trust people who actually have to gameplan around him more than I trust simple efficiency math (side-note: but the fact that NBA fans call TS% and eFG% as "advanced stats" is mind-boggling to the analytics community in pretty much every other sport. Doing some basic multiplication isn't advanced, it takes the level of mathematical skill that we all learned by eighth grade. The real advanced NBA math - such as RPM and its variants, PER, VORP, etc. all is really iffy because the community hasn't figured out to run a regression whereby other players' impacts on the court is nullified. This is coming from someone who uses regressions and Monte Carlo simulations as part of his Ph.D. research. But you don't have to listen to me, John Hollinger talked about this on The Ringer podcast as the season started.).

 

[TyGuy]

@jking948 I'm not the guy that called these "advanced" stats. I know you're on your crusade against what constitutes simple vs advanced. So id appreciate you not lumping me in there and then taking an extra shot by saying I don't have the qualified education to accurately discuss them. That's a little on the fucked up side don't you think? A really low place to go to discredit someones viewpoint. We are talking basketball not theoretical physics.

That's a pretty low blow coming from a post that seems to agree with a decent amount of what I have to say.

Just because they are called "advanced" and you don't have the mathematical background to understand them doesn't mean they are bulletproof.

You know what... Why do I even bother. I try to make a rational arguments, but its met with hostility and group think, and now just straight up low blow insults.

I'm going to peace out of this place for awhile. Different viewpoints with rational well thought posts are just seen as trash that mucks up this thread.

You can have the circle jerk thread back. Is this circle flat or more round like the earth?

 

[gourimoko]

I'm going to peace out of this place for awhile. Different viewpoints with rational well thought posts are just seen as trash that mucks up this thread.

You can have the circle jerk thread back. Is this circle flat or more round like the earth?

Ty, let's not act like people are responding in a vacuum. I think folks are just tired of the vitriolic nature of some of the posts that are being presented; and to be fair, you've said, on more than one occasion, that the rest of us were somehow unable to look at the "data" right in front of us - which is more than a bit condescending.

I mean, in this post here you again go out of your way to insult the intelligence of the entire thread.

I think that's why a lot of folks are just .. not going to engage as though this is the first time we've done this song and dance.

Whenever Kyrie has a dip in performance throughout the season; we do this. It's been that way for years, various posters year in and year out. I think most of us thought that after Kyrie's playoff performance and game winning shot, we'd see less of it - and we do, but now it's fewer posters posting more posts with an even greater level of vitriol.

Just my two cents man...

 

[Kenny Powers]

Boogie cousins better than Ky? lol

I'll wait till he makes the playoffs and performs to and/or above his averages and efficiencies before I'd rank above Ky. Winning a series or two would also help.

One more thing on Boogie: we all know he'd get suspended for every tech he picks up. More likely to be suspended than Draymond actually... multiple times

 

[ACisKING]

I feel that the debates about Kyrie's rank amongst point guards totally underestimate his value to this particular Cavs team. Sure Westbrook/CP3/Curry/Harden have been better over the course of the last several seasons. And Thomas/Wall/Lowry have been better this season. But ask yourself which of those guys would play better with LeBron? LBJ has the ball in his hands an inordinate amount of the time and Kyrie is the perfect guy to play off of him with shooting ability that only Steph can match amongst point guards. The Wall/Westbrook/Harden/Paul/Thomas types need the ball in their hands, which means less possessions where the best player in the world is making decisions.

Now ask yourself, against the one opponent in GSW your team has to beat...an oppnent who switches everything...which player would you rather have than Kyrie? His incredible ability to attack mismatches and score in isolation slows the game down and punishes the Warriors' defensive strategy.

Is he a top five point guard in the NBA? Maybe..or maybe not. But is he the best guy for this Cavs team, the best guy to pair with LeBron, and the best guy to have in the Finals against GSW? Hell yes. And at the end of the day, isn't that all that really matters?

 

[Jordan]

@jking948 I'm not the guy that called these "advanced" stats. I know you're on your crusade against what constitutes simple vs advanced. So id appreciate you not lumping me in there and then taking an extra shot by saying I don't have the qualified education to accurately discuss them. That's a little on the fucked up side don't you think? A really low place to go to discredit someones viewpoint. We are talking basketball not theoretical physics.

That's a pretty low blow coming from a post that seems to agree with a decent amount of what I have to say.




You know what... Why do I even bother. I try to make a rational arguments, but its met with hostility and group think, and now just straight up low blow insults.

I'm going to peace out of this place for awhile. Different viewpoints with rational well thought posts are just seen as trash that mucks up this thread.

You can have the circle jerk thread back. Is this circle flat or more round like the earth?

1) The way I used "you" was not directed at you specifically. You can be directed to the person one is responding to or to a person in general. My "you" was in reference to those that think George Hill, Lillard, and Conley are better players than Kyrie. That was pretty clear from the content.

2) Do you understand the math that goes into RPM and its variants, VORP, PER, etc.? Because if so, you'll find that the arguments people make using them against a guy like Kyrie are, oftentimes, irrational. I think a lot of NBA fans don't understand it, and then use it as a way to justify their points because "numbers." If you don't understand it, though, and people like Gour and I do, then we aren't silencing you by refuting you, we're adding context to your analysis.

3) Don't you think saying that your arguments are rational while decrying every single person who supports Kyrie with math is, inherently, irrational? Gour has explained the math on why things like +/- and TS% aren't good for comparing players across time, and was met with a warning not to post in this thread because it was offending other posters (not saying you were one of them. I just know what I do from the mods posts in this thread).

4) My "crusade" isn't one without merit. I really don't know why people refer to things like TS% as an advanced stat. It is literally the antithesis of advanced. This is a total side-note, and wasn't in reference to anyone in particular, but it honestly is really irksome to me.

 

[Ohio]

I was going to make a real long post, but it just isn't worth it. The same bullshit just keeps getting regurgitated in here and nobody is going to change their minds on how they evaluate Kyrie, how they evaluate players in general, or how they value individual statistics. That is very clear. So I'll try to keep it short.

Do I wish Kyrie improved more from his rookie season? Sure, I wish everyone did. Not all career paths are equal. None of the other PGs mentioned in here started as high as Kyrie did. Most if not all never played better than Kyrie ever has until they were 26, 27, or even 28. Some of their improvement came very suddenly and completely out of left field. Kyrie is 24. It seems silly to pretend like we know he's already reached his potential. It is obviously possible he will become even more efficient than he already is and make an MVP type jump at 26, 27, or 28. And if not? That's OK. The fact he's maintained his historic rookie efficiency with an increased number of attempts is very impressive in its own right.

With that said, Kyrie's game is about getting buckets. He gets buckets no matter the situation. Who he's playing with, who he's playing against, whether it is the regular season or the playoffs. You can throw any variable at Kyrie; his scoring ability and efficiency remain constant (or even improve in the playoffs). How many other PGs, or players in general, can you actually say that about? Not many. A lot of the PGs mentioned in this thread have been absolutely laughable in the playoffs in their careers and it's not an accident. Nobody in this league is better at getting buckets than Kyrie. He doesn't rely on whistles that he never gets, he doesn't revolve his game around taking threes against 'laxed contests in the regular season. He just gets buckets, period. There's something to be said for being the best midrange shooter in the NBA for years now. For being one of the best finishers in the NBA for years now. For being a great three point shooter. Kyrie's game defies this new idea of efficiency and "advanced" statistics and some will just never be able to see or understand his greatness. What we are seeing is this generation's Kobe Bryant (offensively), with better efficiency in every way. And it is flying right over some people's heads. Sad.

The notion that Kyrie should try to change his game by taking more threes and trying to get foul calls he never gets just so his regular season TS could be higher is so ridiculously flawed that it's difficult to even know where to begin. So I'll just mention this: In the 2016 NBA Finals, Steph Curry had a higher TS than both Kyrie (despite Kyrie having a better FG%, 3P%, and FT% ) and LeBron. Klay had about an equal TS to Kyrie & LeBron. Nobody in their right mind, not even the stanniest of Warriors stans, would try to argue that Curry or Klay had as good of a series as LeBron or Kyrie. Frankly, it's not even close. I'll let everyone draw their own conclusions here.

As far as PG rankings or value or whatever...for my money, I'm not trading Kyrie for any PG in this league. Are there PGs better than him overall? Certainly. Are there even more PGs having a better 2016-2017 regular season than him? Certainly. Does that necessarily make them better players than Kyrie? No. Does that make them better players for this team? Hell no.

Still kind of long. Oh well, fuck it. Kyrie's game may not look quite as special in Microsoft Excel, but it looks special on the court, and even more special when it matters.

 

[gourimoko]

The notion that Kyrie should try to change his game by taking more threes and trying to get foul calls he never gets just so his regular season TS could be higher is so ridiculously flawed that it's difficult to even know where to begin.

This +1000.

Still kind of long. Oh well, fuck it. Kyrie's game may not look quite as special in Microsoft Excel, but it looks special on the court, and even more special when it matters.

Believe me, Kyrie's metrics look great in Excel..

 

[InBoobieWeTrust]

I just don't understand how most of the stats guys will literally argue the Kyle Lowry > Kyrie thing until your ear falls off.

But Kyle Lowry had to leave the middle of a playoff game to go in the locker room and "decompress", while Kyrie Irving hit the game winner in game 7 of the Finals. I don't know. I just think that alone means more than any regular season statistical measure ever will.

Lowry may be having a clearly better statistical season that Kyrie, but Kyrie is the better player without a doubt and if we play them in the playoffs again he will show exactly why, again.

 

[Pioneer10]

Is there any site that runs adjusted +/- with the standard errors included. Basketballvalue was great as it included unadjusted, adjusted (1 and 2 year) and it gave you the standard errors. Don't know of any site that does that now since that guy got hired on by an NBA team