2017 Browns Mock Draft Thread

[sportscoach]

What about this metrics driven front office makes Miller believe we will actually trade up?

He must not know our front office well to be sincere. I see them trading down from 12 to pick up more picks (Like AZ_ did in our mock draft) not put that much into trading up to get Trubisky.

 

[FiveThous]

You can't keep acquring picks you have to use them eventually!

 

[dark2332]

He must not know our front office well to be sincere. I see them trading down from 12 to pick up more picks (Like AZ_ did in our mock draft) not put that much into trading up to get Trubisky.

I could see us taking Trubisky at 12 if he's there. I cannot see us trading up to get him. That doesn't seem to be in this current regime's nature.

 

[FiveThous]

While it is still early in regards to this FO, I think most of us are buying the party line that trading up is inefficient in their eyes. They seem to value day 1+2 picks early in their tenure. It will be interesting to see how they use those comp picks and day 3 picks this year. That should give us more data to go off of on how they approach the draft.

 

[Pick6]

I could see us taking Trubisky at 12 if he's there. I cannot see us trading up to get him. That doesn't seem to be in this current regime's nature.

Agree in general, but a QB is a different animal. They know the importance of having a franchise guy. Not saying that I think they will trade up, but I think QB is the exception.

 

[Phills14]

In a quick study of 15 recent mock drafts, not counting this guy who has us trading to 5, Trubisky fell to the Browns 12 out of 15 of the times.

The three mock drafts he did not, he went to the Jets at 6.

Out of those 12 mock drafts that showed Trubisky available at 12, only 3 have the Browns passing on him, and one was only because they had us taking Watson instead.

Thanks for looking into this. I think if Trubisky is there at 12 the Browns very well could take him there. I do not see them trading up to get him. That being said, I think someone is going to move in front of the Browns to take Trubisky (Arizona, Denver, Miami, Houston) if he gets past the Jets at 6.

 

[Pick6]

Thanks for looking into this. I think if Trubisky is there at 12 the Browns very well could take him there. I do not see them trading up to get him. That being said, I think someone is going to move in front of the Browns to take Trubisky (Arizona, Denver, Miami, Houston) if he gets past the Jets at 6.

I do not see AZ, Denver, or Miami doing it. Denver just invested a 1st rounder into a QB last season. AZ and Miami actually have QBs and don't think they are going to trade up for somebody who isn't an "elite" prospect. I'd probably be shocked if they even took one in the first round. Houston on the other hand...I could totally see if with Romo retiring. They have a talented team right now that is going to waste because they don't have a QB.

 

[Phills14]

I agree it would be silly for Denver to move up for another 1st round QB but I just can't rule it out. I wasn't a big fan of Lynch last year and he wasn't a significant threat to take snaps away from Siemian last year.

I think Arizona is certainly in the market for a Quarterback this year. The fact that he won't be ready for this season is great because Palmer is a 1-2 year starter anyway. Mahomes seems to be the Bruce Arians type but I can see him liking Trubisky a lot.

Miami has Tannehill but he's just another guy at this point.

 

[dark2332]

Agree in general, but a QB is a different animal. They know the importance of having a franchise guy. Not saying that I think they will trade up, but I think QB is the exception.

If our front office truly believes he's a franchise guy, and they love him, I'd applaud them for trading up and getting their man. It doesn't matter how I feel about him or his body of work. If the professionals truly want him, waiting it out until 12 is a risk that may not be worth taking.

I would just be surprised to see them do it. That's all.

 

[CBBI]

What about this metrics driven front office makes Miller believe we will actually trade up?

Miller has been working under the assumption for a while now that the Browns like Trubisky much, much more than any of the other QBs.

 

[JMcCurry08]

Miller has been working under the assumption for a while now that the Browns like Trubisky much, much more than any of the other QBs.

He also was told last year the Browns were taking Carson Wentz

 

[Snowblind]

A

He also was told last year the Browns were taking Carson Wentz

And that the chargers were taking Stanley or tunsil.

 

[sportscoach]

Essentially Miller has not called the Browns right on QBs. No one expected us to draft Kessler last season and they were correct on going to get him. That being said, the Browns FO analytics don't really support trading up, so if we do trade it, it's because they feel they need/must have that player. It's a very low probability of trading up and a very high probability of trading down from 12 if they can still get their guy. So my money would be on them trading down unless a certain player/players are on the board more than likely.

 

[Matches]

Following up on my earlier post. This chart aggregates 17 of the most recent mock drafts gathered at http://www.sbnation.com/2017/2/15/14532686/nfl-draft-2017-mock-database-charts?yptr=yahoo. As we saw at that link, they are showing the most popular player selected at each draft slot. This chart looks at the mocks in a different light -- for all the mock drafts, where is each player being taken. The diamond marker for each player in the chart is his average mock drafted position. The bars represent the high and low slots for the player. So we see that while no one has Malik Hooker going lower than 7, his average ranking is a bit lower than Adams, who one goof has going as low as 13.


Most mocks only do the 1st round. I ranked the players 1-32 and if they did not get picked in the first round they were marked as a "41". If a mock did do 2 rounds, I marked data through pick 40.

I didn't include Kiper or McShay as I don't have an Insider account. You can see the source data here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v_jyNPDeiHS_ljHf6X69oboBT1WPkU7ihnbTcBogfGM/edit?usp=sharing

If these guys know what they're talking about (and I would hope that in the aggregate, they sort of do), neither Njoku nor Mahomes will be there for the Browns at 33.

 

[AZ_]

I do not see AZ, Denver, or Miami doing it. Denver just invested a 1st rounder into a QB last season. AZ and Miami actually have QBs and don't think they are going to trade up for somebody who isn't an "elite" prospect. I'd probably be shocked if they even took one in the first round. Houston on the other hand...I could totally see if with Romo retiring. They have a talented team right now that is going to waste because they don't have a QB.

QB is a different animal and Carson Palmer isn't a QB for long.