2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread

[Wham with the Right Hand]

It’s not that he’s gone from an “extremely bad player to a below average player”.

It’s that we are celebrating improvements in areas going from league worst to one of the leagues worst. That isn’t the good thing we are treating it as. Is an improvement up to a .327 xSLG better? Yes? Is it still bottom of the barrel in the MLB? Yes. Is an improvement to a 26% hard hit rate good? Yes. Is it still bottom of the barrel in the MLB? Yes. Is an improvement to a 48% GB rate better? Yes. Is it still one of the highest rates in baseball? Yes.

We are talking about a number of areas that don’t need improvements on them to lead to better results, but dramatic improvements. And you know how frequently that happens for players in the MLB? Not often.

Like guys like Brennan I’m sure will be brought up as softer hitting guys that Rocchio can be in the mold of as justification to think more may be coming, but in his first taste of MLB pitching Brennan flashed significantly louder batted ball metrics than Rocchio has. Brennan’s first 100 PAs between 2022 and 2023 his EVs, expected stats, hard hit rates, etc. looked a lot like this years figures in those areas. He had already flashed it before it became more consistent here in 2024.

We haven’t seen anything like that from Rocchio, and that’s the concern. Usually from guys who make it you see flashes of what could be coming and it just is there inconsistently. We saw that with Lindor when he first came up, a player people like comparing Rocchio to for some reason.

Trends up are good. The BB, K, and contact stuff being up to his more normal minors figures are nice to see, but it’s still hard to see how he is going to make dramatic improvements in the areas he lacks. For every Jose Ramirez, soft hitting high contact guy who develops more power, there are 100 Owen Millers and Myles Straws who put the ball in play a lot but never for any real impact in the MLB.

This has nothing to do with Gabriel Arias either, but I’m sure it will be turned into that for some dumb reason.

I guess the way I'm looking at this (which may be wrong) is that the most important hitting number for Rocchio is on-base percentage. Right now, at age 23 with fewer than 200 PA's in his career, it's .317. That ranks him 153rd in the majors out of 353, which is in the 57th percentile. IOW, better than average.

If his career trajectory is still going up and he is not a finished product at 23, how much higher could that OBP go? Maybe .350? He's on pace for 40 doubles and 25 stolen bases.

In his first 24 games this year he attempted 3 steals. In his last five games he's attempted four. They're having him run more. He could end up with over 30 this year.

Are we OK with a shortstop batting 9th with a .350 OBP, 40 doubles, and 30 stolen bases? Because Rocchio is already there with the doubles and stolen bases and the OBP is within reach if his plate discipline continues to improve.

In terms of slugging he ranks 253 of 353, so well below average. If the goal is to have another Lindor at shortstop, well, tell me who that guy is. Angel Martinez? He's got a lot more power and he's 22 so more should be coming. MILB.com lists him as a second baseman. Can he play short?

I'm not advocating for Rocchio to be our SS of the future, but I think it's fair to point out that he's improved significantly from last year in every area and if he keeps the trend going for the next two years he could be a legitimate starting shortstop at age 25, if not sooner.

His big problem is he's hitting .125 right-handed (3-for-24). His OBP batting left-handed is .372. Yeah, effing .372. I'm down with that. How about we start Arias at short against lefties and only let Rocchio hit left-handed for now?

 

[BimboColesHair]

I guess the way I'm looking at this (which may be wrong) is that the most important hitting number for Rocchio is on-base percentage. Right now, at age 23 with fewer than 200 PA's in his career, it's .317. That ranks him 153rd in the majors out of 353, which is in the 57th percentile. IOW, better than average.

If his career trajectory is still going up and he is not a finished product at 23, how much higher could that OBP go? Maybe .350? He's on pace for 40 doubles and 25 stolen bases.

In his first 24 games this year he attempted 3 steals. In his last five games he's attempted four. They're having him run more. He could end up with over 30 this year.

Are we OK with a shortstop batting 9th with a .350 OBP, 40 doubles, and 30 stolen bases? Because Rocchio is already there with the doubles and stolen bases and the OBP is within reach if his plate discipline continues to improve.

In terms of slugging he ranks 253 of 353, so well below average. If the goal is to have another Lindor at shortstop, well, tell me who that guy is. Angel Martinez? He's got a lot more power and he's 22 so more should be coming. MILB.com lists him as a second baseman. Can he play short?

I'm not advocating for Rocchio to be our SS of the future, but I think it's fair to point out that he's improved significantly from last year in every area and if he keeps the trend going for the next two years he could be a legitimate starting shortstop at age 25, if not sooner.

His big problem is he's hitting .125 right-handed (3-for-24). His OBP batting left-handed is .372. Yeah, effing .372. I'm down with that. How about we start Arias at short against lefties and only let Rocchio hit left-handed for now?

Again, if we are digging deep to bring up a .317 OBP as a good thing (league average OBP right now is .312) that isn’t good.

He’s “on pace for 40 2Bs and 30 SBs” is great and all, but I’d bet my left nut he doesn’t end the season with 40 2Bs and 30 SBs. All of 5 players hit 40 or more 2Bs last year. Betts, Freeman, Seager, Semien, Santander. All of 12 stole 30 bases too. I’m not about pie in the sky stuff.

And the goal isn’t to find the next Lindor. It’s to find a good everyday SS.

I don’t see that with Rocchio. I don’t even see flashes of that with Rocchio right now. And I think he has so far to go in areas to be at that level it makes it hard for me to see it as possible.

If he does, great. I want one of these kids to pan out. We need it. If he’s a .350 OBP, 40 2Bs, 30 SB guy like you are seeing, we have one of the best players in baseball at SS. I don’t see that though, and I don’t see anything that suggests that’s coming either.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

Rocchio/Arias seem to be place holders. If you're waiting for De La Cruz or Whitt, Jr. to show up, well, it ain't gonna' happen.
Those guys come by FA, international FA, trade, or extremely high in the draft.
If you want a 2B, there's one of those in the draft this year. But not SS.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Rocchio/Arias seem to be place holders. If you're waiting for De La Cruz or Whitt, Jr. to show up, well, it ain't gonna' happen.
Those guys come by FA, international FA, trade, or extremely high in the draft.
If you want a 2B, there's one of those in the draft this year. But not SS.

We don’t need a Bobby Witt Jr or an Elly.

I don’t think anyone is waiting on that.

 

[sportscoach]

Rocchio/Arias seem to be place holders. If you're waiting for De La Cruz or Whitt, Jr. to show up, well, it ain't gonna' happen.
Those guys come by FA, international FA, trade, or extremely high in the draft.
If you want a 2B, there's one of those in the draft this year. But not SS.

I think we are looking way too much into this...

We are trying to decide if two sub 25 guys are major league players or not from a very limited MLB time... Let's wait til decide anything since that's what the FO is doing... Let them get time and ABs to see what they can do...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

He’s “on pace for 40 2Bs and 30 SBs” is great and all, but I’d bet my left nut he doesn’t end the season with 40 2Bs and 30 SBs. All of 5 players hit 40 or more 2Bs last year. Betts, Freeman, Seager, Semien, Santander. All of 12 stole 30 bases too. I’m not about pie in the sky stuff.

I agree on the doubles; he had six in his first 11 games and two in his next 18. He had some lucky doubles early; ground balls right over the bag at third or bloops down the line. He had another one the other day on a routine fly to right-center that dropped because the outfielders were mainly trying to avoid a collision. He's not banging doubles off the wall. I don't think he'll get to 40 doubles, either.

I guess you are looking for "flashes" and I am looking for steady improvement, particularly in getting on base. I'm not seeing flashes, either, like a 400-foot home run to right center like Arias produced a few times last year. But I am seeing a 23-year-old who has improved significantly in every area. Maybe he has a long way to go, too far to ever get there. I just don't think a wRC+ of 89 and an OBP of .372 batting left-handed is too far from being a solid offensive contributor at that position.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I also want to point out that 13 of the 15 starting pitchers for the Tigers, Royals, and Twins are right-handed, the exceptions being Skubal in Detroit and Ragans in KC.

Our most important games this year will be against those three teams, and we've only played 2 out of 39 so far. A guy hitting 9th with a .372 OBP against RHP's will be very useful if he can keep it up.

By the way, last year Arias hit an impressive .275/.791 against right-handed pitching. This year he's at .213/.585 with a horrible OBP of .245. I was hoping to see him improve across the board over last year but the only significant improvement I see is against left-handed pitching. That's great, but our most important games will be against teams heavily skewed to right-handed pitching.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

The problem with the roster is that if we had a semi-steady roster with players that have a track record, you could afford to fart around with experiments at SS.
But the whole roster is an experiment, other than 3B and LF.

 

[eChameleon]

Time to bring up the youth to propel us to the division title like we did in 2022.

 

[CDAV45]

I thought I'd take a look at how Rocchio is doing compared to last year, being careful to steer clear of the Rocchio vs. Arias debate. It's looking to me like the Guardians' have plans for both of them with Rocchio getting a legitimate shot at the every day shortstop job and Arias being a guy they can play almost everywhere to give various starters a DH day.

First thing I noticed was Rocchio's walk percentage has dramatically improved from 4.7% last year to 11.4% this year. By the way, Rocchio had 86 PA's last year against 105 so far this year, so the sample sizes are similar (although very small).

Rocchio's strikeout percentage has declined from 31.4% to 18.1%, so both his strikeouts and walks are going strongly in the right direction. In fact, his walk percentage is the third highest on the team behind Fry and Josh Naylor, which is impressive. You'd think a rookie #9 hitter with no power would NEVER get walked with Kwan et al coming up next.

His out-of-zone swing percentage has dropped from 44% last year to 31%, a huge improvement which explains the surge in walks and decline in strikeouts.

His WAR has improved from -0.4 last year to 0.2. His wRC+ has gone from 65 to 89. His defense has gone from -2.2 to 0.0.

His expected slugging percentage has gone from .237 to .327. His xBA has gone from .184 to .233. His Statcast hard hit percentage has improved from 16.4% to 26.0%. His launch angle has improved from 1.5 to 4.9 degrees and his barrel percentage has gone from 0.0 to 4.9%. His ground ball percentage has gone from 60% to 48% while his line drive percentage jumped from 18% to 24%.

So I'm seeing signficant progress in every area; offense, defense, and base running. Now I can already hear Bimbo saying that Rocchio has gone from being an extremely bad player to a below average one, and no argument there. A shortstop with a 0.0 defensive rating and a wRC+ of 89 is not helping you win games. If this is his peak then he will eventually be replaced.

The key for Rocchio is whether he can keep these positive trends going, and if so, how far can he take them. I'd love to have another Francisco Lindor at shortstop but there's no chance Rocchio ever turns into a 30-HR, 100-RBI guy. His future may be as a utility infielder. But he's got his OBP up to .317 and if he can push it up a little higher I think he will be a more than adequate #9 hitter.

He has also stolen five bases in seven attempts (after stealing none last year) so he's on pace to steal 25. If our #9 hitter can get on base at about a .340 clip and steal 25 bases I'd be OK with that.

In his last five games he has five hits, five walks, and three stolen bases. Let's see if he can keep it going. After the first eight games he was hitting .310/.858, then he tailed off until the last five games when he got on base 10 times in 19 PA's. I think young players are more prone to ups and downs as opposed to consistent production.

Whether he's better than Arias as the every day shortstop I don't know. I hope he has not reached his peak at age 23 years and 3 months. I'm pretty sure he hasn't - how many players are maxed out at 23 with 171 major league at-bats?

I think hitters that don't hit very well or hard or more inclined to be pitched to. The real test for Rocchio will when he becomes a hitter pitchers would like to avoid. Personally, I don't think he'll ever reach that status.

I'm not advocating for Arias in this conversation either, but if you know anything about baseball(I believe that you do) then the difference between the 2 is obvious.

I'm about to the point that Brito heats up and gets promoted which would move Gimenez to SS. Although I'm still skeptical about him too. What I'm not skeptical about is that Brito's bat will be far more beneficial in the lineup than Rocchio's. Hell, at this point I'd still take Rengifo is the Angels would deal him. The middle IF is one big question mark and nobody is taking the bull by the horns.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I agree on the doubles; he had six in his first 11 games and two in his next 18. He had some lucky doubles early; ground balls right over the bag at third or bloops down the line. He had another one the other day on a routine fly to right-center that dropped because the outfielders were mainly trying to avoid a collision. He's not banging doubles off the wall. I don't think he'll get to 40 doubles, either.

I guess you are looking for "flashes" and I am looking for steady improvement, particularly in getting on base. I'm not seeing flashes, either, like a 400-foot home run to right center like Arias produced a few times last year. But I am seeing a 23-year-old who has improved significantly in every area. Maybe he has a long way to go, too far to ever get there. I just don't think a wRC+ of 89 and an OBP of .372 batting left-handed is too far from being a solid offensive contributor at that position.

I’m not looking for flashes, I’m looking for things that suggest a consistent good player is in there.

Your “steady improvements across the board” aren’t that, not right now. When you are starting off at the basement level in a number of areas that tend to correlate with success in the MLB you don’t want “steady improvements” at an incremental level. At some point you need to make chunk gains in areas or else it will be hard to convince a team to keep giving you the ABs to continue to steadily improve in increments.

And improved K and BB percentages and contact rates are great, but contact rates and K and BB rates don’t dictate success in the MLB.

 

[Criznit]

Schneemann getting very little love here.

If you're looking for reinforcements, expect Valera, Jonathan Rodriguez, Tena, Noel or my favorite underdog: Daniel Schneemann to get a crack first.

See Bo Naylor from last year. We witnessed Gallagher put up the worst offensive numbers in modern history. If Manzardo isn't up by the end of the weekend, it'll be the end of June/guaranteed super two dodge.

 

[BimboColesHair]

If Manzardo isn't up by the end of the weekend, it'll be the end of June/guaranteed super two dodge.

I feel like you all are just setting yourself up for disappointment with the Manzardo timeline.

 

[Criznit]

I feel like you all are just setting yourself up for disappointment with the Manzardo timeline.

Not me... I don't expect to see him for quite a long time... Though I'd be surprised if they actually attempted to keep his rookie status intact for 2025. I anticipate roughly 200-250 ABs for 2024.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

Just because a few years ago it was a common question in “how many guys can be successful with a 25%+ K rate” and develop better contact rates, I wonder how many sub .350 slugging rookies have developed the pop and overall offensive profile necessary to be a productive big league hitter in modern baseball.

Just because I was curious on that, rookies with a sub .350 slugging that went on to be highly productive (over a career 100 wRC+) bats in the MLB since 2010 are the following:

Eugenio Suarez
Brian Dozier
Yandy Diaz
Michael Brantley

That’s the list right now. Out of 157 qualifying rookies to post a sub .350 slug since 2010.

Nice info. I feel like if a guy gets to the majors when he is very young like Jose Ramirez, there is some hope that his power could be trailing. But not seeing anything from Rocchio to suggest a surge is on the horizon.