2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread

[BimboColesHair]

Nice info. I feel like if a guy gets to the majors when he is very young like Jose Ramirez, there is some hope that his power could be trailing. But not seeing anything from Rocchio to suggest a surge is on the horizon.

Jose is an outlier though.

Kwan is an outlier for not hitting the ball hard and being consistently good offensively.

I just can’t bring myself to bank on Rocchio being an outlier and it eats into the way I view him as a player, maybe a little too much admittedly.

 

[LL3]

I am not especially hopeful on Rocchio's long term prospectus as Guardian SS, but I hope we give him at least another month. If they want to make a change at SS at that point, I do hope they give Arias a similar run of games at SS, and SS only (he can certainly field the position and may find some comfort). There is no guarantee of either blossoming into a plus player, but I still hope we give both a longer look at the position.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I am not especially hopeful on Rocchio's long term prospectus as Guardian SS, but I hope we give him at least another month. If they want to make a change at SS at that point, I do hope they give Arias a similar run of games at SS, and SS only (he can certainly field the position and may find some comfort). There is no guarantee of either blossoming into a plus player, but I still hope we give both a longer look at the position.

He's going to get more than another months' worth of ABs.

I want to see him get 300 or so more just to be sure. There is a really good modern-day hitter in there somewhere, we saw it in late 2021 and 2022.

 

[sportscoach]

Schneemann getting very little love here.

If you're looking for reinforcements, expect Valera, Jonathan Rodriguez, Tena, Noel or my favorite underdog: Daniel Schneemann to get a crack first.

See Bo Naylor from last year. We witnessed Gallagher put up the worst offensive numbers in modern history. If Manzardo isn't up by the end of the weekend, it'll be the end of June/guaranteed super two dodge.

I don't see Schneeman as more than a solid utility guy to be sincere... That being stated, I don't see why we shouldn't have him as our 13th man over Laureano personally... I get Schneeman is a lefty hitter, but Laureano hasn't done anything in my mind to merit keeping him... Plus Schneeman has options so IF we need to rotate the end of the bench we can do so...

 

[LL3]

He's going to get more than another months' worth of ABs.

I want to see him get 300 or so more just to be sure. There is a really good modern-day hitter in there somewhere, we saw it in late 2021 and 2022.

I am glad to hear that is the plan....great to hear that "good sense" prevails!

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

When you are starting off at the basement level in a number of areas that tend to correlate with success in the MLB you don’t want “steady improvements” at an incremental level. At some point you need to make chunk gains...

Well...I guess I considered going from a wRC+ of 65 to 89 in one year (assuming he maintains it) a "chunk gain". I would classify 65 to 75 as an "incremental" improvement. Is an improvement of over 50% chunky enough?

An increase in expected slugging percentage from .237 to .327, or 90 points, is a chunk gain in my book. Still not nearly good enough - he ranks 21st of 25 shortstops.

So here's where Rocchio ranks in various offensive categories among shortstops this year:

wRC+ 16th of 25
OBP 13th
BB% 5th
K% 8th lowest
ISO 21st
BA 20th
wOBA 17th
Offense 16th
Defense 18th
WAR 18th

So at this particular moment he ranks 13-20 out of 25 in every offensive category except walk and strikeout percentage, where he's in the top 10. So I would categorize him as a below average shortstop both offensively and defensively, but not in the bottom third of the league.

If this is who he is and we can consider him a finished product with no additional upside potential, then we need another shortstop. But if he's still on the upward arc of his career curve then maybe he doesn't have sooooo far to go to be an above average shortstop, at least offensively.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Well...I guess I considered going from a wRC+ of 65 to 89 in one year (assuming he maintains it) a "chunk gain". I would classify 65 to 75 as an "incremental" improvement. Is an improvement of over 50% chunky enough?

An increase in expected slugging percentage from .237 to .327, or 90 points, is a chunk gain in my book. Still not nearly good enough - he ranks 21st of 25 shortstops.

So here's where Rocchio ranks in various offensive categories among shortstops this year:

wRC+ 16th of 25
OBP 13th
BB% 5th
K% 8th lowest
ISO 21st
BA 20th
wOBA 17th
Offense 16th
Defense 18th
WAR 18th

So at this particular moment he ranks 13-20 out of 25 in every offensive category except walk and strikeout percentage, where he's in the top 10. So I would categorize him as a below average shortstop both offensively and defensively, but not in the bottom third of the league.

If this is who he is and we can consider him a finished product with no additional upside potential, then we need another shortstop. But if he's still on the upward arc of his career curve then maybe he doesn't have sooooo far to go to be an above average shortstop, at least offensively.

Don’t look at wRC+ for individual player improvement man.

That’s a year to year stat weighted on how others are performing. It’s a comparison to his peers for that given season, not an individual improvement stat.

His OPS has gone from .600 to .628. That is an incremental improvement we are globbing a lot of hope onto. The fact that offense is down so far in 2024 leaguewide has no bearing on Rocchio being better offensively as an individual player.

That is what you are arguing for in your “65 to 89” wRC+ is a chunk gain” argument, but I don’t know if you realize that.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I'm about to the point that Brito heats up and gets promoted which would move Gimenez to SS. Although I'm still skeptical about him too. What I'm not skeptical about is that Brito's bat will be far more beneficial in the lineup than Rocchio's. Hell, at this point I'd still take Rengifo is the Angels would deal him. The middle IF is one big question mark and nobody is taking the bull by the horns.

Brito is 22 years old and hitting .196 at Columbus. I think it's a little early to be moving our Platinum glove second baseman to another position to make room for Brito.

Rengifo hit .264/.724 and .264/.783 the last two years. He's at .330 now but that won't last. If I'm going to trade for a position player it's going to be a center fielder.

 

[PPark]

High upside is based upon the ability to produce and power plays a huge role in that, but it isn't just "raw power". This team is lacking in that department currently and throwing a bunch of high BA hitters(who aren't hitting for high BA right now) at the problem will do nothing to resolve it. I'm confused how this is such a difficult concept to grasp. It's blatantly obvious when you look at playoff contenders and especially when you narrow it down to those teams that win WS.
As longs as up to 1/2 of this lineup is of the light hitting ilk then we'll continue to be early exits in the playoffs when we make it. The state of our SP might not get us there now.

Hey, maybe you think they're better off leaving Manzardo and Rodriguez in AAA. Whatever, I'm cool with that, but I know what the results will be. Where I'm "a bit confused" is with the infatuation with mediocre players that don't possess the ability to be much more than average.

My POV is simple. To improve your offense gravitate toward players with higher graded hit tools.

Manzardo would be the poster boy here. A player with an above average to plus hit tool with below to fringe average power tool. The later (hit tool) provides a base to attempt to address the former. If you will that’s the shortest distance between two points. Subsequently IMO attempting to adjust from a poor hit tool is the longest distance (reinventing the wheel territory).

I’m not cool with wasting time attempting to squeeze blood out of a turnip but you be you.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Don’t look at wRC+ for individual player improvement man.

That’s a year to year stat weighted on how others are performing. It’s a comparison to his peers for that given season, not an individual improvement stat.

His OPS has gone from .600 to .628. That is an incremental improvement we are globbing a lot of hope onto. The fact that offense is down so far in 2024 leaguewide has no bearing on Rocchio being better offensively as an individual player.

That is what you are arguing for in your “65 to 89” wRC+ is a chunk gain” argument, but I don’t know if you realize that.

Scoring across the majors declined from 4.62 runs per game last year to 4.31 so far this year but that may increase as the weather warms up.

I wonder why the scoring has declined by nearly 7%. Is the pitching better than last year? If so, maybe a small improvement by an individual hitter when the average hitter is 7% worse is actually a bigger improvement than what it appears to be.

The key will be the next 300 at-bats or so. Rocchio is listed at 5'10", 170 pounds. He's a little guy. Home runs and slugging percentage are not going to be his thing. It's going to be all about defense and on-base percentage. He has to become the infield version of Steven Kwan. If he can swipe a few bags, so much the better.

Edit:

Kwan ranks 1st out of 29 qualified left fielders in line drive percentage and last in hard hit percentage.

Rocchio ranks 7th of 25 qualified shortstops in line drive percentage and 20th in hard hit percentage. He's not Kwan yet but the profile is similar.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Scoring across the majors declined from 4.62 runs per game last year to 4.31 so far this year but that may increase as the weather warms up.

I wonder why the scoring has declined by nearly 7%. Is the pitching better than last year? If so, maybe a small improvement by an individual hitter when the average hitter is 7% worse is actually a bigger improvement than what it appears to be.

The key will be the next 300 at-bats or so. Rocchio is listed at 5'10", 170 pounds. He's a little guy. Home runs and slugging percentage are not going to be his thing. It's going to be all about defense and on-base percentage. If he can swipe a few bags, so much the better.

How the years almost always go. April and May are almost always the worst 2 months for offense each season.

Right now the average OPS in baseball is .694. Last year it was .734.

The fact that more than half of Rocchio’s gain on OPS+ comes from others not performing well vs him just being better is why OPS+ isn’t a good “player x is getting better” stat. And you talking about runs being down across the league is why wRC+ isn’t a good stat for that either.

Others being worse isn’t your guy being better.

 

[KluberSociety]

If players generally get better as the season goes on, then I'd expect the ones that have improved relative to the league to do so as well. So I don't get why not just use the "+" stats.

 

[BimboColesHair]

If players generally get better as the season goes on, then I'd expect the ones that have improved relative to the league to do so as well. So I don't get why not just use the "+" stats.

At the end of the year. Sure.

In early May with offense down across the league? No.

The players gains right now are more from the league being worse offensively than them being better.

And if the goal is proving they’re getting considerably better as an individual , why would we use a stat heavily dictated by the performance of others as a key argument?

 

[KluberSociety]

At the end of the year. Sure.

In early May with offense down across the league? No.

The players gains right now are more from the league being worse offensively than them being better.

And if the goal is proving they’re getting considerably better as an individual , why would we use a stat heavily dictated by the performance of others as a key argument?

Unless your idea is that the individuals on average actually got worse, as opposed to are performing at a lower level because that's what typically happens earlier on in the year, then I don't see the argument.

If a player gets an OPS of .660 when the league average is .600, I'd expect them to get .760 or thereabouts when the league average is .700.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Unless your idea is that the individuals on average actually got worse, as opposed to are performing at a lower level because that's what typically happens earlier on in the year, then I don't see the argument.

If a player gets an OPS of .660 when the league average is .600, I'd expect them to get .760 or thereabouts when the league average is .700.

I think pitching is better this year, personally. Even with all the injuries.

OPS at the start of this year is a major outlier over the last 12 full months of data going back to May of 2022.

But I still expect offensive numbers to creep up over the course of the season.

Number of perennial MVP candidates off to slow starts this year is an interesting development. Don’t think it last for them though. And they’ll raise the tides themselves a bit.