Forty games in, how do we look?
Overall, about how we always look. Lets take a gander at the Francona years at the first 40 games, the second 40
games, and final record.
2019
21-19
23-17
93-69
2018
20-20
24-16
91-71
2017
21-19
22-18
102-60
2016
22-18
27-13
94-67
2015
17-23
21-19
81-80
2014
19-21
20-20
85-77
2013
23-17
19-21
92-70
In every year, excepting Titos first, the team has had a better record in the second quarter, sometimes dramatically. And in every year, excepting 2013, the team has had a dramatically better winning percentage at the end. But even in 2013, the end winning percentage wasn't that far off from the 40 game mark.
Every team is different, as is every season, so individually these numbers aren't predictive as to how 2021 will go. But taken as a whole, seven seasons isn't sheer luck. They show an organizational...and very significant...trend.
If we look at the players themselves there isn't anybody performing at a rate above what was expected, except Shaw and, perhaps, Karinchak and Clase.
But we have a ton who are producing well below reasonably expected levels of production. It can be reasonably expected that most of them will revert to their norms.
Given the myriad problems with the offense and 40% of the rotation, the record is somewhat of a surprise. Given the way this organization always seems to figure out a way to swim against the current, the record is about as expected.
Maybe we tend to focus on individual players too much, instead of upon the organization and the big view. It always seems to end up that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
Overall, about how we always look. Lets take a gander at the Francona years at the first 40 games, the second 40
games, and final record.
2019
21-19
23-17
93-69
2018
20-20
24-16
91-71
2017
21-19
22-18
102-60
2016
22-18
27-13
94-67
2015
17-23
21-19
81-80
2014
19-21
20-20
85-77
2013
23-17
19-21
92-70
In every year, excepting Titos first, the team has had a better record in the second quarter, sometimes dramatically. And in every year, excepting 2013, the team has had a dramatically better winning percentage at the end. But even in 2013, the end winning percentage wasn't that far off from the 40 game mark.
Every team is different, as is every season, so individually these numbers aren't predictive as to how 2021 will go. But taken as a whole, seven seasons isn't sheer luck. They show an organizational...and very significant...trend.
If we look at the players themselves there isn't anybody performing at a rate above what was expected, except Shaw and, perhaps, Karinchak and Clase.
But we have a ton who are producing well below reasonably expected levels of production. It can be reasonably expected that most of them will revert to their norms.
Given the myriad problems with the offense and 40% of the rotation, the record is somewhat of a surprise. Given the way this organization always seems to figure out a way to swim against the current, the record is about as expected.
Maybe we tend to focus on individual players too much, instead of upon the organization and the big view. It always seems to end up that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
