At The Quarter Turn

[sportscoach]

Freeman
Miller
Arias
Rocchio
Bracho
Gimenez

********

If we are expectant of help from Miller, we better hope he's a heck of a lot better than Loretta....and a lot quicker to produce at the MLB level.

For his first three years in MLB, covering 700 PA, he was Jake Bauers.

Loretta's Avg and OBP% was never below .270 and .350 respectively for majority of his career. That is the floor I was saying was Millers floor...

 

[sportscoach]

Also @CATS44

Loretta came up at 23, Miller is 24, so if you took his age 24 season, .279/.339/.318, that isn't so bad on a team who just needs to get guys to hit and his third season (first full one) he hit .287/.354/.388 and stayed at least that per season the rest of his career. I think that's okay as a floor. And @Derek that's what I believe his floor to be, so let's hope I am right in a sense..

 

[CATS44]

Loretta's OPS+ thru his first 700 PAs was 81.

Bauer's thru 800 PAs was 84.

If anybody is arguing that OBP is more important than SLG...that contact and bat control are more important than power...I am on board with that, because they are coming around to my way of thinking...lol.

But within their respective eras, Bauers has been a more productive hitter than the early Mark Loretta.

And if Miller comes up and puts up an OPS+ of 81 over his first 700 PAs, he will be considered a bust.

Gimenez career OPS+ stands right now at 80.

 

[sportscoach]

Loretta's OPS+ thru his first 700 PAs was 81.

Bauer's thru 800 PAs was 84.

If anybody is arguing that OBP is more important than SLG...that contact and bat control are more important than power...I am on board with that, because they are coming around to my way of thinking...lol.

But within their respective eras, Bauers has been a more productive hitter than the early Mark Loretta.

And if Miller comes up and puts up an OPS+ of 81 over his first 700 PAs, he will be considered a bust.

Gimenez career OPS+ stands right now at 80.

I don't look at all that stuff all the time to be honest... It doesn't always reflect what guys could do and when Loretta was up that was a hitters era in a lot of senses. We have power hitters but no one who is closer to that leadoff/high contact type and that's what Miller is closer to. Loretta's skillset was a bit underrated cause of his era and so much emphasis on power...

 

[Derek]

Loretta's OPS+ thru his first 700 PAs was 81.

Bauer's thru 800 PAs was 84.

If anybody is arguing that OBP is more important than SLG...that contact and bat control are more important than power...I am on board with that, because they are coming around to my way of thinking...lol.

But within their respective eras, Bauers has been a more productive hitter than the early Mark Loretta.

And if Miller comes up and puts up an OPS+ of 81 over his first 700 PAs, he will be considered a bust.

Gimenez career OPS+ stands right now at 80.

If you're going to consider someone a bust after 700 PA, that's your prerogative.

Lorretta was a really good contact hitter with a good OBP, who just didn't have any pop in his bat during a time when everybody else did.

If you think that would be a subpar outcome for Miller then I think you're setting the kid up for failure.

If he came up this year and hit .275/.325/.400, I'd be really pleased.

 

[xmasbuck]

Also @CATS44

Loretta came up at 23, Miller is 24, so if you took his age 24 season, .279/.339/.318, that isn't so bad on a team who just needs to get guys to hit and his third season (first full one) he hit .287/.354/.388 and stayed at least that per season the rest of his career. I think that's okay as a floor. And @Derek that's what I believe his floor to be, so let's hope I am right in a sense..

so then reasonably, if we replace hernandez with miller, we'll probably be worse off in 2021 but better in 2023

 

[sportscoach]

If you're going to consider someone a bust after 700 PA, that's your prerogative.

Lorretta was a really good contact hitter with a good OBP, who just didn't have any pop in his bat during a time when everybody else did.

If you think that would be a subpar outcome for Miller then I think you're setting the kid up for failure.

If he came up this year and hit .275/.325/.400, I'd be really pleased.

I really think Miller will hit similarly to Loretta did. Profiles seem similar to me in a lot of ways, and in my mind, that's his worst case scenario... But we won't know for a few years honestly

 

[Derek]

I really think Miller will hit similarly to Loretta did. Profiles seem similar to me in a lot of ways, and in my mind, that's his worst case scenario... But we won't know for a few years honestly

I also think he'll hit similarly to Loretta, hopefully with a little more pop.

 

[LL3]

Rich Aurilia is feeling pretty jealous about all this Mark Loretta talk....maybe we can work him into the conversation next?

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

A player's floor is the lowest expectation for that player. It's not the "worst case scenario". The worst case scenario is the same for every prospect. Mark Loretta is absolutely his floor and I would be disappointed if that's all he becomes.

Loretta is literally who scouts have compared him to. It's also not a bad thing.

Indians Top Prospects

The Official Site of Major League Baseball

www.mlb.com

 

[Benway]

Yes, Loretta and Miller are physically very similar, both defensively limited but useful infielders.
If Miller can hit .295 over 15 years they'll be nearly identical!

 

[CATS44]

The point about Loretta and Miller isn't who will end up with the best career.

The point is twofold...

1) Would Miller make a significant difference today?... because that's what a lot of folks on here are insisting.

2) Will Miller make a significant difference over his years of control?

If the comparison is Loretta, the answer to both questions is no.

Loretta was worth 5.7 fWAR for the first eight years he got playing time in MLB, six of them as regular. No matter how you slice and dice it, averaging under 1 WAR per season is in no way a significant contribution, unless maybe he plays SS like Omar, or catcher like Berto.

You know who got the real value out of Loretta? The NEXT team.

So, when you look at some of the guys we have recently acquired that are playing now, think of Mark Loretta.

None of this is to say that I'm not excited about Miller. Its just that enthusiasm should always be tempered by wisdom, and expectations should be, also. My personal wisdom has been born out of watching literally hundreds of bright, young Tribe prospects arrive with the same trumpets blaring that Miller does now...and watching the VAST majority either fall flat on their faces, become a short lived shooting star, or toil for a few years in unremembered mediocrity.

Our future is bright, not because we have several can't miss prospects. We don't have even one. Our future is bright because we have a ton of very good looking prospects, and the sheer volume makes success almost certain.

 

[Urban]

I think the White Sox will end up running away with the Central. Even with injuries to Jimenez and Robert, they're arguably the most well-rounded team in baseball behind the Dodgers.

Naylor and Cesar have rebounded very well in May, as as Bauers. Hopefully Eddie Rosario isn't too far behind in turning the corner and maybe Owen Miller can provide a spark a la Mercado in 2019

Bit worried about the rotation. Obviously have 3 reliable guys but hard to trust McKenzie right now with his control. Hentges has a WHIP over 2 in his 15 innings. Cal Quantrill's ERA looks nice but another guy with a high WHIP and his strikeout rate is in the gutter. Not sure when Logan Allen can be expected back with his arm fatigue, but his appearances weren't exactly inspiring much confidence.

Wild Card at this point seems like a 5 team race with the Indians, 3 AL East teams, and the A's. Think we'll be in the mix throughout the season.

 

[sportscoach]

The point about Loretta and Miller isn't who will end up with the best career.

The point is twofold...

1) Would Miller make a significant difference today?... because that's what a lot of folks on here are insisting.

2) Will Miller make a significant difference over his years of control?

If the comparison is Loretta, the answer to both questions is no.

Loretta was worth 5.7 fWAR for the first eight years he got playing time in MLB, six of them as regular. No matter how you slice and dice it, averaging under 1 WAR per season is in no way a significant contribution, unless maybe he plays SS like Omar, or catcher like Berto.

You know who got the real value out of Loretta? The NEXT team.

So, when you look at some of the guys we have recently acquired that are playing now, think of Mark Loretta.

None of this is to say that I'm not excited about Miller. Its just that enthusiasm should always be tempered by wisdom, and expectations should be, also. My personal wisdom has been born out of watching literally hundreds of bright, young Tribe prospects arrive with the same trumpets blaring that Miller does now...and watching the VAST majority either fall flat on their faces, become a short lived shooting star, or toil for a few years in unremembered mediocrity.

Our future is bright, not because we have several can't miss prospects. We don't have even one. Our future is bright because we have a ton of very good looking prospects, and the sheer volume makes success almost certain.

The problem is if you get 200 singles and nothing else, you get a lower WAR than someone who hits 50 singles and 20 HRs only... That's where sometimes the numbers don't really say production...

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

The problem is if you get 200 singles and nothing else, you get a lower WAR than someone who hits 50 singles and 20 HRs only... That's where sometimes the numbers don't really say production...

That doesn't sound right.