At The Quarter Turn

[DCTribefan]

Projection for the Tribe: 87 wins but 5 games behind the Chisox and a 46% chance of making the playoffs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-mlb-predictions/indians/

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Projection for the Tribe: 87 wins but 5 games behind the Chisox and a 46% chance of making the playoffs.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-mlb-predictions/indians/

I'll take it. That's pretty damn good for a rebuilding/reloading year.

 

[33Y0]

I'll take it. That's pretty damn good for a rebuilding/reloading year.

The problem for me is that what do we do to build on this? I’m quite satisfied where we’re heading considering, like you said, it’s supposed to be a down year. But going forward, the biggest question is if the Dolans expand payroll to make more of a run. And by no means am I advocating going up to $120 million.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

The problem for me is that what do we do to build on this? I’m quite satisfied where we’re heading considering, like you said, it’s supposed to be a down year. But going forward, the biggest question is if the Dolans expand payroll to make more of a run. And by no means am I advocating going up to $120 million.

I see no reason to believe that our payroll can't expand as we get closer to another peak. We've spent when we're close to contending--and we've spent well above what fan support and attendance should have gotten us. I also hate the payroll argument. Really the only payroll-inspired move they've made that's hurt us has been not being able to bring back Carlos.

Right now this is a really damn good valley. My major questions coming into the year (Civale and Plesac) have been answered. Our weapons in the bullpen are flashing. I think that puts us significantly ahead of schedule. My goals for the rest of the year are to figure out Amed Rosario's bat as well as his ability to play CF, figure out Jake Bauers, bring up Owen Miller, and then start to look at the rest of our farm system and plan out the next window.

With Arias, Freeman and Miller, what do you do with all of them in 2023? Do you count on one of them busting immediately at the major league level? Do you trade some pieces? They're interesting questions that I'm not sure I have an answer for right now.

 

[sportscoach]

The problem for me is that what do we do to build on this? I’m quite satisfied where we’re heading considering, like you said, it’s supposed to be a down year. But going forward, the biggest question is if the Dolans expand payroll to make more of a run. And by no means am I advocating going up to $120 million.

Well if you look at the roster, it's likely the payroll won't be much higher next season than this year. Eddie Rosario is a free agent and on paper we can replace Hernandez which then the likely hood of that money being spent on extensions like on Bieber is pretty high.

I really do think we will try to upgrade this roster somehow this season even if it is a rental and at least signing a stopgap next season as well until guys are ready or we get a long piece term. We are going to keep developing our hitters while trying to fill in holes externally within reason. It will be in 23 that we finally up the budget...

 

[Alabuckeye]

I think it really matters as to why they've dumped 100m off the payroll. Was it just a 'rebuild/reload' reasoning, or is it a larger vision related to the name change.....i.e. an ownership change? If the first, then yes, Dolan has shown that he is willing to spend more when the time is right. If it's the second, then it's not going to change until there's a new name in the owners box.

I'm thinking that the ownership is changing, just because there is smoke on a variety of levels.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I think it really matters as to why they've dumped 100m off the payroll. Was it just a 'rebuild/reload' reasoning, or is it a larger vision related to the name change.....i.e. an ownership change? If the first, then yes, Dolan has shown that he is willing to spend more when the time is right. If it's the second, then it's not going to change until there's a new name in the owners box.

I'm thinking that the ownership is changing, just because there is smoke on a variety of levels.

Why are you so concerned with the dollar amount?

Would you be happier if we paid Austin Hedges 20 million, and gave another 10 to Jake Bauers so the dollar number would be higher?

It's not constructive to debate the number. Talk about specific moves.

The only one that comes to mind is Carlos Santana--and we rehashed that over and over... @Derek

For what it's worth, I think our payroll is so small because there wasn't really anyone we needed to spend on--and it gave the organization a chance to recoup itself and stabilize after the way COVID fucked us. I expect this organization to do what it's always done--try to extend its own talent. Be willing to buy out arbitration years in exchange for longer control. Then move on from players when they're about to hit the free agency open market unless we need that player to contend for a World Series that season.

 

[Alabuckeye]

I referenced a dollar amount because that’s how much they’ve dropped over several years. It didn’t start dropping in a COVID world. It started dropping prior to it and that timing just drove more cuts.

why? Beats me, I don’t have any inside sources. We will have to wait to find out.

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

I think it really matters as to why they've dumped 100m off the payroll. Was it just a 'rebuild/reload' reasoning, or is it a larger vision related to the name change.....i.e. an ownership change? If the first, then yes, Dolan has shown that he is willing to spend more when the time is right. If it's the second, then it's not going to change until there's a new name in the owners box.

I'm thinking that the ownership is changing, just because there is smoke on a variety of levels.

Oops, quoted wrong person

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

Well if you look at the roster, it's likely the payroll won't be much higher next season than this year. Eddie Rosario is a free agent and on paper we can replace Hernandez which then the likely hood of that money being spent on extensions like on Bieber is pretty high.

I really do think we will try to upgrade this roster somehow this season even if it is a rental and at least signing a stopgap next season as well until guys are ready or we get a long piece term. We are going to keep developing our hitters while trying to fill in holes externally within reason. It will be in 23 that we finally up the budget...

Considering the last two spring trainings the Indians offered contract extensions to Bieber and nothing came of it, sure seems to me he is holding out for free agency and the big payday.

 

[sportscoach]

Considering the last two spring trainings the Indians offered contract extensions to Bieber and nothing came of it, sure seems to me he is holding out for free agency and the big payday.

I think he will sign if dollars is above an X amount, we just dont know what it is yet. From what I remember, talks never really got very far/they werent more than, hey do you want an extension soon?

 

[CDAV45]

I see no reason to believe that our payroll can't expand as we get closer to another peak. We've spent when we're close to contending--and we've spent well above what fan support and attendance should have gotten us. I also hate the payroll argument. Really the only payroll-inspired move they've made that's hurt us has been not being able to bring back Carlos.

Right now this is a really damn good valley. My major questions coming into the year (Civale and Plesac) have been answered. Our weapons in the bullpen are flashing. I think that puts us significantly ahead of schedule. My goals for the rest of the year are to figure out Amed Rosario's bat as well as his ability to play CF, figure out Jake Bauers, bring up Owen Miller, and then start to look at the rest of our farm system and plan out the next window.

With Arias, Freeman and Miller, what do you do with all of them in 2023? Do you count on one of them busting immediately at the major league level? Do you trade some pieces? They're interesting questions that I'm not sure I have an answer for right now.

I'm not going to suggest that you're right or wrong, only that if preparing for next year and beyond is the mantra then I don't want to half ass it. That means adios to Eddie and Cesar by the break and dealing a certain individual by no later than the start of the 22 season.

Because I think this team can compete now with an addition or 2, I'd prefer to go that route. We're headed for a roster crunch and some difficult decisions anyway.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I'm not going to suggest that you're right or wrong, only that if preparing for next year and beyond is the mantra then I don't want to half ass it. That means adios to Eddie and Cesar by the break and dealing a certain individual by no later than the start of the 22 season.

Because I think this team can compete now with an addition or 2, I'd prefer to go that route. We're headed for a roster crunch and some difficult decisions anyway.

I think this team can compete now if the young talent already at the major league level pans out. I'm willing to let it ride. I feel like it's house money at this point--a season where we shouldn't be contending, but if the guys put us in that position at the deadline, then let's buy instead of sell.

I just expect that we'll fall a bit more behind and look back on the first half of this season as the peak.

 

[CDAV45]

I think this team can compete now if the young talent already at the major league level pans out. I'm willing to let it ride. I feel like it's house money at this point--a season where we shouldn't be contending, but if the guys put us in that position at the deadline, then let's buy instead of sell.

I just expect that we'll fall a bit more behind and look back on the first half of this season as the peak.

Sometimes you just have to ride it out and see what's going on when the dust settles. The only thing I'm certain of is that the near future looks very bright for this organization regardless of how the decide to approach this season.

How we look back on this season depends on a few things:
1) Players moving toward their norms. We don't have a single player over performing and several underperforming.
2) Internal options being called up and how they perform.
3) Any trades made by the deadline.
4) Trimming a few players that just aren't "cutting the mustard".

I see the Rays and the Brewers got an early jump on improving their clubs. I suggest the Indians consider doing the same.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I think this team can compete now if the young talent already at the major league level pans out. I'm willing to let it ride. I feel like it's house money at this point--a season where we shouldn't be contending, but if the guys put us in that position at the deadline, then let's buy instead of sell.

I just expect that we'll fall a bit more behind and look back on the first half of this season as the peak.

I agree with the "house money" analogy. It seems they are using this season to reload after moving on from Lindor, Carrasco, Clevinger, Bauer, Kluber, and Santana over a two-year period. Next year they should be back up to full speed.

This year is all about player development as I see it. There are three groups.

1. Pitchers: McKenzie, Hentges, Mejia, Allen, Clase, and Quantrill. All these guys can be much better than they are now from what the Indians are saying. We just need two of the starters to emerge as above average 4 and 5 starters next year and for Clase and Quantrill to add that last bit of refinement. There are some really impressive but unfinished arms in this group.

2. Young veterans: Naylor, Luplow, Amed Rosario, Gimenez, Harold Ramirez. These guys will either stake their claim to starting jobs in the future or be slowly weeded out like Naquin, Mercado, and Zimmer. So far Naylor is making his case while Luplow is floundering. The other three showed some flashes but have been inconsistent. I'm putting Bauers and Chang in the "one foot out the door" category.

3. Prospects: Miller, Freeman, Arias, Espino, Jones, Bo Naylor. It's all about giving them as much playing time and coaching as possible with an eye toward earning starting jobs next season or the year after in the case of Espino and Naylor. They put Miller in left field last night. Are they looking at him as Eddie Rosario's replacement next year?

Next year could be a real changing of the guard if they go with Miller in left, Amed in center, Naylor in right, Jones at first, Freeman at second, and Arias at short. Luplow and Harold compete for the fourth OF job. Gimenez is the UIF. Leaving are Cesar, Eddie, Chang, and Bauers.

I'm not sure we'll need to add a lot of payroll in terms of new players to be able to compete with the White Sox as long as the young vets and upper level prospects develop as hoped.