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At The Quarter Turn

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so then reasonably, if we replace hernandez with miller, we'll probably be worse off in 2021 but better in 2023
Why are we replacing Hernandez with Miller? My line of thought is letting him play SS. Miller should easily match the production from there thus far, and I expect he would significantly improve it. Now, should he perform well and Gimenez, Arias, or Freeman prove themselves worthy of a promotion then trading Cesar and putting Miller at 2B could be a good move. The return would be the determining factor for me.
 
It was a bit of an exaggeration, but honestly if you don't hit for power you will always have a lower WAR even if you have a high batting avg...
Nope. You're wrong here. There are certainly examples (like what you used) where a player with zero power is worth more than a bad power hitter.

Just look at someone like Ichiro's metrics. In 2004, the guy only managed 8 home runs in 762 plate appearances, yet was worth 9.2 WAR.
 
The problem is if you get 200 singles and nothing else, you get a lower WAR than someone who hits 50 singles and 20 HRs only... That's where sometimes the numbers don't really say production...
Sorta, maybe, Coach.

200 singles equals 200 total bases.

50 singles and 20 homers equals 130 total bases.

Your example is extreme, but I do agree, if your point is that OBP is more valuable than SLG, no matter what WAR may say. And the type of batter that fits the team need matters. We don't need more homeruns, what we need is more guys who can get on base consistently...and IF Miller could do that up here, he would be more valuable than a kid who would give us 25 homers, but Kd a third of the time.

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I like the Miller comp to Kinsler. Kinsler had more pop in his bat in the minors, but he played a lot of games in extreme hitters leagues. They are comparable in size, and Kinsler was an instant producer at the MLB level.

I dont think Miller becomes a Kinsler, because I never expect that from a prospect. But if Miller hit the ground running, like Kinsler...or a kid named Kipnis...he would be an immediate positive impact up here.

The problem is that, in spite of similarities in their MiLB profiles, both Kinsler and Kip had substantial experience at AAA and neither missed a year of development.

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I agree that the Chisox are the prohibitive favorites to win the division...if their rotation stays healthy....and if some of their players keep performing as they never have before, particularly Cease, Rodon, and Mercedes.

But if you look at both Chicago and Cleveland, which looks maxed out production wise, and which has a lot of room for growth?

At the quarter pole Chicago looks super, while we are trying to hang in. But is Chicago a speed horse, or does it have the stamina to keep up the pace.

If you go by how a Francona team almost always plays, we have yet to find our stride.
 
@CATS44 SLG% actually has a stronger correlation to runs scored than OBP%, but OPS has an even stronger correlation, so those who can do both are the most valuable (duh)

Although I would agree that SLG% is likely too heavily weighted in OPS.
 
@CATS44 SLG% actually has a stronger correlation to runs scored than OBP%, but OPS has an even stronger correlation, so those who can do both are the most valuable (duh)
I'd also like to point out that the things @CATS44 and @sportscoach are talking about, like batters who hit for contact and average, get weighted double in OPS. A single is both on base and getting one base for slugging calculations. A home run is only worth 2.5x a single.
 
@CATS44 what are the slash lines for Bauers and Loretta for their first 700 ABs? I am at work so I cannot do it, if I may ask...
 
My only reason for pessimism going forward is how insanely fortunate we've been on the injury front. Maybe the team has more progressive approaches towards conditioning that's paying off, but if it's shear luck, that will run out soon.
 
Nope. You're wrong here. There are certainly examples (like what you used) where a player with zero power is worth more than a bad power hitter.

Just look at someone like Ichiro's metrics. In 2004, the guy only managed 8 home runs in 762 plate appearances, yet was worth 9.2 WAR.
How much of that was related to his unbelievable defense? I'm not arguing with what you're saying, I'm seriously wondering.

So much of this is discussion is questionable IMO. Derek's statement rings the most true for me. The player that can do both is probably the most valuable. If nobody was ever on base the power hitter holds more value. If someone is always on 2B/3B then the singles hitter probably has more value. Maybe the real question is which type of hitter is more prevalent? In reality, the issue isn't that we need a player or 2 that can hit for a high average and get on base or we need another HR hitter. What we need is some type of production at 1B, C, SS, LF, and CF. For the most part we haven't received shit for production from those positions.
 
How much of that was related to his unbelievable defense? I'm not arguing with what you're saying, I'm seriously wondering.

(2.5)
So much of this is discussion is questionable IMO.
What, exactly, is questionable? It's certainly not questionable that someone who hits 200 singles is valued less than someone who hits 50 singles and 20 home runs, because that's a made-up lie.
 
Not really seeing the Kinsler to Miller comp.. Kinsler had more pop, speed and less K prone (at least for now)...
 
How much of that was related to his unbelievable defense? I'm not arguing with what you're saying, I'm seriously wondering.

So much of this is discussion is questionable IMO. Derek's statement rings the most true for me. The player that can do both is probably the most valuable. If nobody was ever on base the power hitter holds more value. If someone is always on 2B/3B then the singles hitter probably has more value. Maybe the real question is which type of hitter is more prevalent? In reality, the issue isn't that we need a player or 2 that can hit for a high average and get on base or we need another HR hitter. What we need is some type of production at 1B, C, SS, LF, and CF. For the most part we haven't received shit for production from those positions.
Ichiro certainly derived a chunk of his WAR from his defense that year, but he was also highly rated as an offensive player.

If he were to have that kind of season today, it would have rated far higher, no doubt. 2001 was the year we saw Bonds post 11.9 fWAR with a .609 OBP% and an .812 SLG% (1.421 OPS!!!!)

Offensive numbers were so ridiculous that Ichiro's .372 BA% was just the 28th best offensive season that year. Most of that has less to do with Ichiro's lack of power and more to do with the fact that he rarely walked. His .372 BA% produced a .414 OBP%, which is obviously excellent, but not nearly as "whoa" as a .372 BA%.
 

(2.5)

What, exactly, is questionable? It's certainly not questionable that someone who hits 200 singles is valued less than someone who hits 50 singles and 20 home runs, because that's a made-up lie.
Questionable was a poor choice of words by me. Circumstantial would have been much better. I agree with what I bolded in your post. I like production from hitters and a singles hitter is less desirable for me. Everyone here should know how highly I value power in today's game.
 

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