Blazers players worried LaMarcus Aldridge will leave

[Jack Brickman]

My problem with your statements comes from the bolded.

Well, I did just easily argue that Love was better last year, with evidence to boot. If you disagree with me and think Aldridge was better, that's fine. Regardless, we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

You're wrong, of course, but I'll let it slide.

 

[MRMsix6]

Lee is completely right, you totally ignored defensive metrics like DRPM or say DRAPM; Aldridge > Love by +1.3 to +1.7, which greater than 1 stdev higher than Love.

You also ignored Aldridge's ability to effectively play both PF and C without the need to "go small," Aldridge's substantially better block rate, and his substantially better defensive opponent stats (eFG, PER, opp. ppg)

When taking this into account Aldridge's RPM is slightly higher than Love's for last year (5.12 > 5.06).

So like I said, you can't "easily make the case" that Love was better than Aldridge last year; unless you completely discount defensive contributions and ignore the fact that Aldridge shared the floor with numerous scoring options including Damian Lillard.

The case was made pretty easily. You just disagreed with it.

BPM, APM, VORP are all encompassing stats that do not ignore defense. Aldridge is the better defender, but by how much, and how much consideration do we give to offensive efficiency and what the 3 point shot does for a team? The gap in offensive efficiency is substantial because of the bigger 3pt threat. Love is also a substantially better passer.

Frankly, I think the two are incredibly close as players. I do admit that the idea of watching Aldridge as our small-ball 5 in some lineups gives me a slight chub.

And of course this thread would devolve into Love vs Aldridge. That's the only way it remains interesting.

 

[Jack Brickman]

The case was made pretty easily. You just disagreed with it.

BPM, APM, VORP are all encompassing stats that do not ignore defense. Aldridge is the better defender, but by how much, and how much consideration do we give to offensive efficiency and what the 3 point shot does for a team? The gap in offensive efficiency is substantial because of the bigger 3pt threat. Love is also a substantially better passer.

Frankly, I think the two are incredibly close as players. I do admit that the idea of watching Aldridge as our small-ball 5 in some lineups gives me a slight chub.

And of course this thread would devolve into Love vs Aldridge. That's the only way it remains interesting.

It's also worth noting that the majority of Love's advanced stats this year are either the same or better than Aldridge's this season, including TS%, VORP, and OBM. Their WS/48 are identical. Aldridge has the better PER, but that's probably largely due to Aldridge's usage (30.2 to 21.7).

 

[gourimoko]

Well, I did just easily argue that Love was better last year, with evidence to boot.

If by easy you mean incorrectly, then I guess..

But citing stats alone is not formulating an argument, especially considering the question relates to defensive/offensive aggregation and most of those stats don't take an individual player's defense contribution into consideration whatsoever (like PER).

That's why I wanted to use RPM and RAPM because they are specifically designed to do just this, and unlike DRtg based ratings, don't overly rely on rebounds to measure defense.

If you disagree with me and think Aldridge was better, that's fine. Regardless, we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

Fair enough, because I'm not really wanting to argue against Kevin Love, yet again, to have certain posters say I'm somehow overly negative or some such bullshit.

You're wrong, of course, but I'll let it slide.

Lol.. right back at ya.

 

[gourimoko]

The case was made pretty easily. You just disagreed with it.

Frankly, I think the two are incredibly close as players. I do admit that the idea of watching Aldridge as our small-ball 5 in some lineups gives me a slight chub.

...wtf?

 

[Jack Brickman]

Gouri, I think you're confusing the idea that you could easily argue that Love was better last year with it being a fact that Love was better. The fact is, there is plenty of evidence to make an argument that Love was better last year. That doesn't mean he was better, or that you can't argue in Aldridge's favor with other stats. You can easily argue either player was better. I think Love was. You think Aldridge was. That's fine. It was clearly close between the two.

 

[Chris]

Boy, this sounds fucking familiar.

 

[MirORich]

Cavs board, with similar players, in similar treadmill situations. It's not surprising at all imo.

Different situations entirely.

Aldridge would be leaving because he might fear he's stuck in a situation where he'll always be on a good team but not one that can win a championship.

Love is in a situation that gives him the best possible chance at championships for the foreseeable future.

Situations are not even remotely similar except that they are both PFs

 

[cavsfever]

It takes out this year because using this year would be completely unfair. Aldridge got to be the first option on his team. Love was utilized as the third option on his.

A strange argument. Being the first option on your team means people play to shut you down. Playing with Lebron and Kyrie should make you a more efficient player and give you (a lot) more open shots.

 

[Jack Brickman]

A strange argument. Being the first option on your team means people play to shut you down. Playing with Lebron and Kyrie should make you a more efficient player and give you (a lot) more open shots.

No, being the first option means your usage rate is higher, which, if you're a star like Love or Aldridge, means that your stats will be higher. Do you think people were not game-planning to stop Kevin Love last year? He had the ball all the time, and he destroyed defenders on a nightly basis. This year, he had the ball about 7% less than last year, so naturally most of his stats went down. That's just the way usage works with stars. Most of them need their shots and the ball to get into a rhythm.

 

[MirORich]

If he's smart, he goes to a team in the Eastern Conference like Detroit, Boston, or New York. They have some decent pieces, the ability to bring him in, and the ability to make more moves around him

No sense in staying in the West murderers row for the next few years.

Not what I'd want to see as a Cavs fan, but if Aldridge wants to leave PDX, its what he should do.

 

[gourimoko]

BPM, APM, VORP are all encompassing stats that do not ignore defense.

BPM and VORP are both box-score metrics

It has been stated numerous times these statistics have limited value when making an argument that attempts to measure defense...

There are limitations on all box score stats – if the box score doesn't measure a particular contribution, a box-score-based metric can only approximate that contribution. This is not a great hindrance on the offensive side, as nearly everything of importance on offense is captured by the box score (only missing things like screen-setting), but on defense the box score is quite limited. Blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with minutes and what little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available. Such critical components of defense as positioning, communication, and the other factors that make Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan elite on defense can't be captured, unfortunately.

BPM should not be used definitely for defensive metrics...

Box Plus/Minus is good at measuring offense and solid overall, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be considered definitive. Look at the defensive values as a guide, but don't hesitate to discount them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender.

For the sake of this argument it should be noted that, VORP is highly based on BPM, so citing VORP is merely accounting for time on the court. If both players have similar time played, you're simply double counting.

Moving on to APM, which isn't a box-score metric; however, APM is useless for this comparison. Anyone citing APM over RAPM/RPM, especially where the two disagree, would really - really need to explain his methodology because this makes next to no sense.

Let's use last year's 2-year APM for these two players which is at least useful data, but again, not for this discussion.

Kevin Love 5.49 > Aldrige 4.97... with a std.er of 3.31 on Love's regression, and ~2.9 on Aldridge's.

So mathematically, we don't know who is better or worse from looking at APM and further calculations are necessary to draw any real conclusions..

That's why I cited RAPM and RPM has being more relevant to the discussion... Stats that are probably the best overall aggregate metrics for comparing two power-forwards.

That's also why I said you cannot "easily" make the case that Love is better than Aldridge, because there is ample statistical evidence to demonstrate that Aldridge is the better player.

I'm fine with saying they are nearly equivalent, however; I think the data supports that.

 

[MRMsix6]

...wtf?

wtf what?

It's easy to make the case that Love was the superior player last year. A whole slew of metrics, both advanced and traditional, support that argument. Thus, the case is easily made. Most numbers, barring purely defensive metrics, favored Love, and rather substantially in offensive efficiency.

Maybe you're thinking that people are saying Love is easily the better player, which is an important semantic difference?

I don't know what else to tell you.

 

[gourimoko]

Gouri, I think you're confusing the idea that you could easily argue that Love was better last year with it being a fact that Love was better. The fact is, there is plenty of evidence to make an argument that Love was better last year. That doesn't mean he was better, or that you can't argue in Aldridge's favor with other stats. You can easily argue either player was better. I think Love was. You think Aldridge was. That's fine. It was clearly close between the two.

Perhaps it is all semantics... I think a case can be made that Love is better; but I don't think it's a strong one.

 

[gourimoko]

wtf what?

It's easy to make the case that Love was the superior player last year. A whole slew of metrics, both advanced and traditional, support that argument. Thus, the case is easily made. Most numbers, barring purely defensive metrics, favored Love, and rather substantially in offensive efficiency.

Maybe you're thinking that people are saying Love is easily the better player, which is an important semantic difference?

I don't know what else to tell you.

See the post right above yours.. Statistically, it's not as easy as you might think. Lots of folks look at these numbers without really understanding how they are computed or what they indicate.

But after reading both you and Jack's posts now, I don't think we're necessarily even in disagreement.