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I’m going out on a limb to make an argument for the Cavs being the #1 seed in the East this year. Hey, maybe the Guardians are making me a little nuts, but here goes.
Last year they won 44 games. Miami was the #1 seed with 53 wins. So the Cavs would have to find 10 more wins, give or take. Maybe fewer since the East is supposed to be really competitive this year.
Last year the Cavs led the NBA in blowing 10-point leads. They lost 18 games where they were ahead by 10 or more points according to Chris Fedor. Frequently they would get a lead with Garland on the floor and then lose it when he had to sit down, especially after Rubio was injured and they had to use Rondo or Nembhard or Pangos as the backup point guard.
The Cavs were +13.9 when Garland was on the floor. As a team they were +1.9 for the season, which means they were -12.0 when Garland was on the bench. (cleaningtheglass.com)
Signing Neto and trading for Donovan Mitchell will help that situation until Rubio is ready to go. Fedor reports that the plan is for either Garland or Mitchell or both to be on the floor for 48 minutes a night. This year when Garland sits it will be Mitchell running the offense instead of Pangos, Rondo, et al. Far fewer blown leads, IMO.
I have three reasons the Cavaliers will win more games this year….
Better personnel
Internal improvement
Fewer injuries
Let’s start with better personnel. Lauri Markkanen was traded for Donovan Mitchell. Yes, Collin Sexton was in the deal, but he only played in 11 games last year so I didn’t count him. Agbagi was not on the Cavs last year. Markkanen is a fine player but he’s no Donovan Mitchell. This was an upgrade.
But it’s more than just Mitchell being a better player individually than Markkanen. At the end of last year teams were doubling Garland to force him to give up the ball. With Rubio out there were no playmakers to make them pay. Now there is. Mitchell and to a lesser extent LeVert will make teams pay if they double Darius. And so will Rubio when he gets back.
We had no backup center last year, unless you count Luke Kornet, Tacko Fall, Ed Davis, or Moses Brown. None of them were invited back. Now we have Robin Lopez, a 14-year vet and a significant upgrade over that group. We also picked up Raul Neto, who is an upgrade over Rondo, Goodwin, Pangos, Nambhard, and Frazier. But he will only be in the rotation (if he is) until Rubio returns. Neto and Lopez are upgrades over the backups we had to trot out at various times last year.
Also, we only had LeVert for 19 games between trading for him in mid-season and an injury shortly after he arrived.
The personnel is definitely better. In fact, the NBA GM’s in a recent poll thought the Cavs were the most improved team in the Eastern Conference.
The second reason why they will win more games is internal improvement. Here is what Chris Fedor had to say about the individual players’ off-seasons:
Mitchell has called this one of his most productive summers. Garland’s trainers have raved about his continued development. Mobley, who worked out with Nets star Kevin Durant at various points, arrived Monday with more well-defined biceps, thicker shoulders and extra pounds. Allen worked to become a better offensive player. According to Altman, LeVert is in “incredible” shape thanks to a productive summer. Love is healthy and says he will be more comfortable going into his second straight year as sixth man. Cedi Osman is coming off a great summer with the Turkish National Team. One source said 2020 No. 5 pick Isaac Okoro “worked his ass off.” Ricky Rubio is hopeful to return from a torn ACL in December. Dean Wade and Lamar Stevens returned to Cleveland for extra work multiple times throughout the offseason. Raul Neto and Robin Lopez fill holes at backup point guard and center.
Fedor had columns the last couple of days on Okoro and Mobley, emphasizing how intensively they have been working on improving their physical strength and offensive game over the summer. He also mentioned that LeVert was perhaps the most impressive player in training camp. He changed his diet and is in the best condition of his life.
Considering how young the Cavs are across the board it’s not surprising if most of them show improvement. Adding up all those little improvements could result in a big team improvement from the returning players, over and above the acquisition of Mitchell, Lopez, and Neto.
Lastly, the Cavs were hit hard by injuries last year and a regression to the mean is very possible and even likely. Chris Fedor on his podcast said the Cavs had a “massive amount of injuries at the worst possible time” to some of their most important players.
Jarrett Allen’s freak broken hand when he hit it on the rim attempting to block a shot was a killer. The Cavs were 35-21 with Jarrett Allen and 9-18 without him [before the last play-in game when he wasn’t 100%].
With Garland, Allen, and Mobley starting they were 26-14, which projects to 53.5 wins. Miami won the East with 53. What if these three are able to start more than 40 of the 82 games this year?
Also, LeVert missed a month right after we traded for him. Garland missed 14 games and he was our most important player. Rubio missed 48 games.
It’s hard to believe the Cavs will have injury luck as bad as last season, although Rubio might miss 40+ games this year.
When you combine a more talented starting five (Mitchell and LeVert replace Okoro and Markkanen) with better depth (Neto, Lopez, Okoro now coming off the bench) plus internal improvement at a number of positions plus average instead of bad luck with injuries, I can easily see a gain of 10 wins.
The Cavs had 18 leads of 10 points or more end up in losses because, mostly, they couldn’t maintain the lead when Garland had to sit. Garland was averaging 35 minutes per game down the stretch because they could not afford to take him out and teams were still doubling him. This year Garland will not have to be on the floor almost continuously and doubling him won’t work.
This year I expect many of those blown 10-point or more leads to result in wins.
Winning the East totally unrealistic? At the All-Star break last year the Cavs were in 3rd place, 2.5 games out of first with a record of 35-23. At that point 71% of the schedule had been played and the Cavs were 2.5 games out. But coming out of the break Garland was out for 10 days and they lost 4 of 5, then Allen got hurt and they went 8-11 the rest of the way.
Had Garland and Allen been healthy for the last 24 games the Cavs may have finished with 48-50 wins. In fact, it’s very likely. And this year’s team is better.
Down the stretch they lost by 4 points to Philly twice and by 5 to Orlando. With no backup center other than Moses Brown, they lost games they would have easily won with Allen. They lost by 4 to Chicago at home.
So there it is. A better starting five this year, a better bench, improvement by Mobley, Okoro, Garland and others, having LeVert for a full season, and better luck with injuries will take a 44-win team last year to at least 50 and possibly 54 wins this year.
I keep hearing the East is better than last year so maybe the competition has also improved. Kyrie Irving will be playing home games this year, for one thing. We also had some luck playing teams when their superstars were hurt or several starters were out with COVID. But I still think 48 wins is the floor for this team in 2022-23.
Last year they won 44 games. Miami was the #1 seed with 53 wins. So the Cavs would have to find 10 more wins, give or take. Maybe fewer since the East is supposed to be really competitive this year.
Last year the Cavs led the NBA in blowing 10-point leads. They lost 18 games where they were ahead by 10 or more points according to Chris Fedor. Frequently they would get a lead with Garland on the floor and then lose it when he had to sit down, especially after Rubio was injured and they had to use Rondo or Nembhard or Pangos as the backup point guard.
The Cavs were +13.9 when Garland was on the floor. As a team they were +1.9 for the season, which means they were -12.0 when Garland was on the bench. (cleaningtheglass.com)
Signing Neto and trading for Donovan Mitchell will help that situation until Rubio is ready to go. Fedor reports that the plan is for either Garland or Mitchell or both to be on the floor for 48 minutes a night. This year when Garland sits it will be Mitchell running the offense instead of Pangos, Rondo, et al. Far fewer blown leads, IMO.
I have three reasons the Cavaliers will win more games this year….
Better personnel
Internal improvement
Fewer injuries
Let’s start with better personnel. Lauri Markkanen was traded for Donovan Mitchell. Yes, Collin Sexton was in the deal, but he only played in 11 games last year so I didn’t count him. Agbagi was not on the Cavs last year. Markkanen is a fine player but he’s no Donovan Mitchell. This was an upgrade.
But it’s more than just Mitchell being a better player individually than Markkanen. At the end of last year teams were doubling Garland to force him to give up the ball. With Rubio out there were no playmakers to make them pay. Now there is. Mitchell and to a lesser extent LeVert will make teams pay if they double Darius. And so will Rubio when he gets back.
We had no backup center last year, unless you count Luke Kornet, Tacko Fall, Ed Davis, or Moses Brown. None of them were invited back. Now we have Robin Lopez, a 14-year vet and a significant upgrade over that group. We also picked up Raul Neto, who is an upgrade over Rondo, Goodwin, Pangos, Nambhard, and Frazier. But he will only be in the rotation (if he is) until Rubio returns. Neto and Lopez are upgrades over the backups we had to trot out at various times last year.
Also, we only had LeVert for 19 games between trading for him in mid-season and an injury shortly after he arrived.
The personnel is definitely better. In fact, the NBA GM’s in a recent poll thought the Cavs were the most improved team in the Eastern Conference.
The second reason why they will win more games is internal improvement. Here is what Chris Fedor had to say about the individual players’ off-seasons:
Mitchell has called this one of his most productive summers. Garland’s trainers have raved about his continued development. Mobley, who worked out with Nets star Kevin Durant at various points, arrived Monday with more well-defined biceps, thicker shoulders and extra pounds. Allen worked to become a better offensive player. According to Altman, LeVert is in “incredible” shape thanks to a productive summer. Love is healthy and says he will be more comfortable going into his second straight year as sixth man. Cedi Osman is coming off a great summer with the Turkish National Team. One source said 2020 No. 5 pick Isaac Okoro “worked his ass off.” Ricky Rubio is hopeful to return from a torn ACL in December. Dean Wade and Lamar Stevens returned to Cleveland for extra work multiple times throughout the offseason. Raul Neto and Robin Lopez fill holes at backup point guard and center.
Fedor had columns the last couple of days on Okoro and Mobley, emphasizing how intensively they have been working on improving their physical strength and offensive game over the summer. He also mentioned that LeVert was perhaps the most impressive player in training camp. He changed his diet and is in the best condition of his life.
Considering how young the Cavs are across the board it’s not surprising if most of them show improvement. Adding up all those little improvements could result in a big team improvement from the returning players, over and above the acquisition of Mitchell, Lopez, and Neto.
Lastly, the Cavs were hit hard by injuries last year and a regression to the mean is very possible and even likely. Chris Fedor on his podcast said the Cavs had a “massive amount of injuries at the worst possible time” to some of their most important players.
Jarrett Allen’s freak broken hand when he hit it on the rim attempting to block a shot was a killer. The Cavs were 35-21 with Jarrett Allen and 9-18 without him [before the last play-in game when he wasn’t 100%].
With Garland, Allen, and Mobley starting they were 26-14, which projects to 53.5 wins. Miami won the East with 53. What if these three are able to start more than 40 of the 82 games this year?
Also, LeVert missed a month right after we traded for him. Garland missed 14 games and he was our most important player. Rubio missed 48 games.
It’s hard to believe the Cavs will have injury luck as bad as last season, although Rubio might miss 40+ games this year.
When you combine a more talented starting five (Mitchell and LeVert replace Okoro and Markkanen) with better depth (Neto, Lopez, Okoro now coming off the bench) plus internal improvement at a number of positions plus average instead of bad luck with injuries, I can easily see a gain of 10 wins.
The Cavs had 18 leads of 10 points or more end up in losses because, mostly, they couldn’t maintain the lead when Garland had to sit. Garland was averaging 35 minutes per game down the stretch because they could not afford to take him out and teams were still doubling him. This year Garland will not have to be on the floor almost continuously and doubling him won’t work.
This year I expect many of those blown 10-point or more leads to result in wins.
Winning the East totally unrealistic? At the All-Star break last year the Cavs were in 3rd place, 2.5 games out of first with a record of 35-23. At that point 71% of the schedule had been played and the Cavs were 2.5 games out. But coming out of the break Garland was out for 10 days and they lost 4 of 5, then Allen got hurt and they went 8-11 the rest of the way.
Had Garland and Allen been healthy for the last 24 games the Cavs may have finished with 48-50 wins. In fact, it’s very likely. And this year’s team is better.
Down the stretch they lost by 4 points to Philly twice and by 5 to Orlando. With no backup center other than Moses Brown, they lost games they would have easily won with Allen. They lost by 4 to Chicago at home.
So there it is. A better starting five this year, a better bench, improvement by Mobley, Okoro, Garland and others, having LeVert for a full season, and better luck with injuries will take a 44-win team last year to at least 50 and possibly 54 wins this year.
I keep hearing the East is better than last year so maybe the competition has also improved. Kyrie Irving will be playing home games this year, for one thing. We also had some luck playing teams when their superstars were hurt or several starters were out with COVID. But I still think 48 wins is the floor for this team in 2022-23.
