Closer Look: Otto Porter

[AZ_]

The great news with Porter is unlike the other potential top picks, we can actually bring him in for a workout and see if his alleged shortcomings are of legitimate concern. Unlike some fans, i think Porter will be able to play at this level MY concern is as to how good he can be versus other potential picks.

There a lot of positive to his game but the thing you've got to be wary against is does it translate to the next level on a consistent basis. I guess what a lot of us are concerned with is the infatuation with Porter simply because he's a SF. To me, he's at least the 5th best player in the draft. (other experts though have him ranked as high as two)

Lastly, when i watch Porter it is like i always wanted to see more but he just plays a solid game. Maybe the WOW factor is what is clouding the vision. His stats seem to showcase how solid of a player he is....

I'm with you here. Porter is going to play in the league for a long time because of his defense and overall length which is going to play no matter what.

But his ceiling is just so low for a potential top pick. He's never going to have the athleticism to be a go-to-guy on offense, his lack of lateral quicknees leaves him a huge disadvantage when trying to beat guys off the dribble and his shot mechanics will be tough to overcome as he steps back from three (although he's made nice improvements).

It's not just the "WOW" factor, it's the fact that his ceiling for a top prospect is pretty low compared to guys like Len or Noel or McLemore who have some helium to their games because of their athleticism.

 

[AZ_]

A lot of the more experienced members here like Porter because of how he projects. As Douglar said, players of Porter's size and projections based on advanced statistics practically never fail. In fact, the normally do extremely well. Porter projects to be the best small forward since Kevin Durant.

I'll take Porter all day based on (1) how I've seen him play a smart, efficient game while (2) being his team's best player, (3) still being only 19, (4) a great character guy who (5) works hard and (6) is a team player in addition to (7) his length and (8) how well he projects based on his advanced stats.

There are lots of things to like about Porter that aren't fools' gold.

Without scrolling back through the thread, can you repost some of the advanced stats you're talking about?

 

[Jack Brickman]

It's not just the "WOW" factor, it's the fact that his ceiling for a top prospect is pretty low compared to guys like Len or Noel or McLemore who have some helium to their games because of their athleticism.

You could have said the same thing about Kyrie two years ago compared to other guys in the 2011 draft. Remind me how that worked out.

Elite athleticism is nice, but it isn't everything. Skill and IQ go a long way toward creating a star player.

 

[I LOVE YOU ABBY]

Fucking finally! Someone gets it! It really isn't impressive (relatively speaking) for an NBA player to have the ball 2 feet above the rim when your standing reach is 9'2". :chuckles:

But anyhow, Porter's only "shortcoming" is really athleticism. And like I said adamantly in my previous post, it's results that matter. We've yet to determine exactly how athletic Porter is anyway. Like I also said, the most we can say right now is that he has not played in a way that has shown great athleticism. Perhaps he decides not to use it and only uses it when he needs to. I will be excited to see how he does this weekend at the combine. But in the end, I'll always take a basketball player over an elite athlete because we've all seen how elite athletes have struggled to come into their own (see Alonzo Gee, Ryan Hollins, Christian Eyenga, etc.). Kyrie is the epitome of a player who relies on skills to get by, and he'll likely have a much longer prime of his career because of it (barring any big injuries).

Suffice to say, I am not concerned if Porter is a rim rocker. I'm more concerned of his skill level as a basketball player. I really think that the Cavs have Porter, at worst, 2nd on their big board. In some advanced stats groups, Porter projects higher than even Noel, so I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility for Porter to be picked 1st in the draft if the Cavs win it all. Advanced stats project Porter to be an all-star. It'll be interesting to see if the Cavs follow suit with their past selections. I think they will.

Say something bad about Porter.

It's obvious you've done quite a bit of research on the guy, and you're able to defend him pretty well. But I challenge you to go on the offensive for a second. Is there anything that worries you about Otto Porter? Or are you 100% convinced he will be a good pro? I'm trying to understand your unyielded optimism.

 

[The Process God]

He's never going to have the athleticism to be a go-to-guy on offense

You don't need to be the most athletic guy on the floor in order to be a go-to guy. We as Cavs fans should know this. He's had, what, 7 dunks in his career, yet he's the flashiest player on offense in the league and one of the best scorers in the league. Porter, who has 5-6" in height and 7" in wingspan and probably 9" in standing reach on Kyrie, I think he'll be fine as a scorer especially with how smart he is.

 

[KeyzerSozee]

Say something bad about Porter.

It's obvious you've done quite a bit of research on the guy, and you're able to defend him pretty well. But I challenge you to go on the offensive for a second. Is there anything that worries you about Otto Porter? Or are you 100% convinced he will be a good pro? I'm trying to understand your unyielded optimism.

Just the same. How does he compare with Bennett? Forgetting the injury. He seems to have a much higher ceiling and we are bringing in MB to instill defense. Defense can always be taught. I am sure yes porter is a great guy to have to teach, but again I understand Bennet to be superior just hurt?

Edit: I'd add how does he fit with Kyrie? With us wanting Kyrie and Dion to co-exist?

 

[I LOVE YOU ABBY]

I've made this point before, but I think it's a good one so I'll make it again.

Saying Porter doesn't have elite/great athleticism isn't like saying Kyrie doesn't have elite athleticism. That's a slap in the face to Kyrie. Kyrie is still a great athlete. Sensational quickness to go along with the best handles in the game.

Kyrie gets compared to Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and John Wall...probably the three most athletic people to ever enter the league, or at least among them. So in comparison, Kyrie is not a tremendous athlete.

However, and this is based solely on the tape I've seen, Porter is a below-average athlete. I agree though, I can't wait to see how he performs at the combine. Hopefully I am wrong, but, usually what you see is what you get. And what I've seen from Porter, at least athletically, scares the shitskies out of me.

 

[TyGuy]

It's not so much the athleticism as it is the lack of a left hand. He has enough athletic ability to compete in the nba at SF. He does need a left hand desperately though. He doesn't have enough athletic ability to compensate for a lack of a left. Those funky double pump shots on the left side of the hoop are going to get swatted in the nba.

[video=youtube;PVKDvd-0J1c]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVKDvd-0J1c[/video]

 

[KeyzerSozee]

I've made this point before, but I think it's a good one so I'll make it again.

Saying Porter doesn't have elite/great athleticism isn't like saying Kyrie doesn't have elite athleticism. That's a slap in the face to Kyrie. Kyrie is still a great athlete. Sensational quickness to go along with the best handles in the game.

Kyrie gets compared to Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, and John Wall...probably the three most athletic people to ever enter the league, or at least among them. So in comparison, Kyrie is not a tremendous athlete.

However, and this is based solely on the tape I've seen, Porter is a below-average athlete. I agree though, I can't wait to see how he performs at the combine. Hopefully I am wrong, but, usually what you see is what you get. And what I've seen from Porter, at least athletically, scares the shitskies out of me.

I just watched vid of him. I cannot see him being our pick. The only thing that stands out is his length and that he is pretty athletic in utilizing it in traffic.

Otherwise . . . his shot is not just mechanically ugly, but takes way too long, his highlights the guys were 10 feet off of him. He has good presence it seems, will be in the right spots. But I don't think that gets you the third pick. Hell, he couldn't attempt a left handed lay-up from what I saw.

And this is nothing like Kyrie not being athletic. Kyrie is creative, untouchable with his ball control, and quick. I really don't see this pick.

Edit: I'll say again we've never gone with a safe pick. Why would we in the weakest draft blah blah that there shouldn't be one?

 

[I LOVE YOU ABBY]

I'm glad someone mentioned Kevin Love in regards to Porter. Not that they're similar players, but they both have similar shortcomings. I'll be the first to admit that I thought O.J. Mayo was going to be a better pro than Love, so maybe I put too much emphasis on athletic ability.

Kevin Love does possess two elite skills that make him a star player though. Rebounding and Shooting. I don't think Porter is great at anything, and I think he has below-average athleticism. Which again, I admit I value athleticism very much. I think it matters.

If we pick Porter I'll be able to get excited about it just like with any draft pick. I do fear he will only be ordinary though, and I do compare him most closely to Luke Walton.

 

[KeyzerSozee]

I'm glad someone mentioned Kevin Love in regards to Porter. Not that they're similar players, but they both have similar shortcomings. I'll be the first to admit that I thought O.J. Mayo was going to be a better pro than Love, so maybe I put too much emphasis on athletic ability.

Kevin Love does possess two elite skills that make him a star player though. Rebounding and Shooting. I don't think Porter is great at anything, and I think he has below-average athleticism. Which again, I admit I value athleticism very much. I think it matters.

If we pick Porter I'll be able to get excited about it just like with any draft pick. I do fear he will only be ordinary though, and I do compare him most closely to Luke Walton.

I'm with you. I think I said a minute after you something about him not ever making a left-handed lay-up. We passed on a "sure kinda thing" in Harrison Barnes- in a "stronger" draft. I am yet to see why we'd just say "ok" let's play this one safe. This draft allows the greatest room for error. Everyone thinks these kids would not normally be in the top 10. We are totally free to bust on a pick. In a strong draft you HAVE to hit. In a draft like this you HAVE to take a chance. His Ceiling is very clear. It's at a lot of other guys' shoulders.

Edit: No that was TY guy that beat me to the punch of saying does this dude not know how to lay it up with his left?

Edit: Its really not that hard. In practice just force yourself to take every shot with your left. Soon its as good or better than your right? I figured that out when I was 15?

 

[TwoPistols]

I'm with you here. Porter is going to play in the league for a long time because of his defense and overall length which is going to play no matter what.

But his ceiling is just so low for a potential top pick. He's never going to have the athleticism to be a go-to-guy on offense, his lack of lateral quicknees leaves him a huge disadvantage when trying to beat guys off the dribble and his shot mechanics will be tough to overcome as he steps back from three (although he's made nice improvements).

It's not just the "WOW" factor, it's the fact that his ceiling for a top prospect is pretty low compared to guys like Len or Noel or McLemore who have some helium to their games because of their athleticism.

I think this perfectly describes the feelings of everyone in the anti-Porter camp. I've tried to say this before, but couldn't find the words to say it.

I also question the value of the pick. Is it really necessary to have your 3 best players be your PG, SG, SF, especially when the SF is lacking that WOW factor? It would be nice to have some frontcourt/backcourt balance. The Cavs need a small forward like Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard...someone who can defend at a high level and hit 3 pointers. You can find those SFs later in the draft and you don't have to use a top 5 pick on one. If the Cavs had a decent SF, I don't think we'd even be talking about Porter.

On the flip side, when I watch these playoff games, I see big men like Hibbert and Gasol dominating even if they aren't scoring...just be being in the lane, altering shots and grabbing clutch rebounds on both ends of the floor. Skilled big men go high in the draft. This should be the last time the Cavs are picking there and they also happen to have a huge hole at C.

 

[narbar32]

...snip...

You don't need to be the most athletic guy on the floor in order to be a go-to guy. We as Cavs fans should know this. He's had, what, 7 dunks in his career, yet he's the flashiest player on offense in the league and one of the best scorers in the league. Porter, who has 5-6" in height and 7" in wingspan and probably 9" in standing reach on Kyrie, I think he'll be fine as a scorer especially with how smart he is.

Come on GL, this is an almost entirely irrelevant comparison and you know it, especially given that all of the gifs here are of Kyrie's best-in-the-league level ball-handling and layup finishing abilities. And Kyrie demonstrated that elite level ball-handling and finishing ability in high school and college, too.

Is Porter an elite ball-handler to compensate for what I still submit is sub-par level athleticism for an NBA SF? Does he have an elite first step like Kyrie, despite Kyrie's lack of an off-the-charts vert? Has he ever shown the craftiness and advanced pace-control of Kyrie? The inside finishing acrobatics and touch? If Porter has shown any of those things, or even anything close to those levels, I haven't seen it.

If one didn't think Kyrie was "flashy" coming into the NBA, that person didn't see enough of Kyrie up to that point (which would be forgivable, given how much of his freshman year he missed). I always had problems with that in the discussions leading up to that draft. You don't need to flush everything to be flashy and Kyrie's pure athleticism is STILL underrated.

Most importantly, to me at least, is the differences in explosiveness requirements that come with the differences in positions. Loads of PGs have been the absolute best of the best in the NBA without elite athleticism. I don't think that's quite as true for SFs in the league. Sure, there have been exceptions... but for PGs, it doesn't even seem that success despite a lack of elite explosiveness is even an exception at all.

I've argued this before: An NBA SF is playing primarily against the best overall pure run-and-jump athletes in what I'd argue is the most athletically-dependent of all the major sports. When I've watched Porter, I've seen him more times than I'm comfortable with get out-muscled because he's weaker than his competition and I've seen him struggle to get off the line on his drives because he's more sluggish than much of his competition and doesn't yet have the craftiness and ball-handling ability to compensate for that lack of first-step quickness. And when he gets to the hoop, he's not going to finish over defenders. Does he NEED to? No... but it is one less option he has when compared to his more explosive opponents.

I think he'll be fine defensively because he's long and he's gotta be at least as agile as an old ass Bruce Bowen or Matt Fucking Harpring, for instance. I just don't see him having a bunch of options offensively besides catch-and-shoot and pull-up, defender on his hip jumpers. He's just one of those guys where, when I've watched him play, my eyes tell me the exact opposite of what all the advanced metrics voodoo stats say. I just don't see him being any sort of stand out player offensively, which I think needs to be the case for a starting NBA SF on a championship team, or at least one without a throwback, inside-dominating center.

I'm absolutely convinced I'll be wrong to some degree, just because I don't trust my eyes over everybody else's. But I'm very interested to see just how wrong I am, at least.

 

[KeyzerSozee]

I think this perfectly describes the feelings of everyone in the anti-Porter camp. I've tried to say this before, but couldn't find the words to say it.

I also question the value of the pick. Is it really necessary to have your 3 best players be your PG, SG, SF, especially when the SF is lacking that WOW factor? It would be nice to have some frontcourt/backcourt balance. The Cavs need a small forward like Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard...someone who can defend at a high level and hit 3 pointers. You can find those SFs later in the draft and you don't have to use a top 5 pick on one. If the Cavs had a decent SF, I don't think we'd even be talking about Porter.

On the flip side, when I watch these playoff games, I see big men like Hibbert and Gasol dominating even if they aren't scoring...just be being in the lane, altering shots and grabbing clutch rebounds on both ends of the floor. Skilled big men go high in the draft. This should be the last time the Cavs are picking there and they also happen to have a huge hole at C.

Maybe these camps can we all at least agree Otto Porter can not dribble or lay the ball up with his off hand? And I agree with you. I'd add Noah's difference (them playing their O through him somehow).

This is as I said one draft you HAVE TO TAKE A CHANCE. If it is as weak as it looks, why go for the sure thing. It's a role player. You need boom or bust because it doesn't matter. It's a free Pass.

Edit: and if anyone thinks its just fun to knock a guy that uses his left less than I did at summer camps when I was 12, no. It matters, see Gibson. If he had a left and could finish, how good would he be?

 

[I LOVE YOU ABBY]

I think this perfectly describes the feelings of everyone in the anti-Porter camp. I've tried to say this before, but couldn't find the words to say it.

I also question the value of the pick. Is it really necessary to have your 3 best players be your PG, SG, SF, especially when the SF is lacking that WOW factor? It would be nice to have some frontcourt/backcourt balance. The Cavs need a small forward like Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard...someone who can defend at a high level and hit 3 pointers. You can find those SFs later in the draft and you don't have to use a top 5 pick on one. If the Cavs had a decent SF, I don't think we'd even be talking about Porter.

On the flip side, when I watch these playoff games, I see big men like Hibbert and Gasol dominating even if they aren't scoring...just be being in the lane, altering shots and grabbing clutch rebounds on both ends of the floor. Skilled big men go high in the draft. This should be the last time the Cavs are picking there and they also happen to have a huge hole at C.

I wouldn't call it a huge hole at C, but I would call it a huge opportunity. I'm of the belief that Varejao is one of the best centers in the NBA, therefore, when he's healthy we don't have a glaring hole at center. But with his injury history, it would be nice to have some depth, even if that depth comes two months into the season in Noel's case.

Varejao is exactly the guy I want my young, talented center to learn from. And you can never have enough bigs, they're always useful, and they're always valuable on the market.