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Game Thread | Game #10 | Cavs @ Clippers | Nov. 7, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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After beating the Lakers for their eighth consecutive win the Cavaliers stick around in LA to take on the Clippers. Both teams will be playing the second night of a back-to-back. The Clippers are 5-5, with two wins over the Rockets (1-8) and single wins over the Kings (2-5), Lakers (2-5), and Spurs (5-4). Their losses were to OKC (4-4) twice, New Orleans (4-3), Phoenix (6-1), and Utah last night (8-3). At home they lost to Phoenix by 17, New Orleans by 21, Utah by 8, and beat Houston by 2 points. They beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones.

The Clippers have seven players over age 30 and were one of the pre-season favorites to win the West.

Kawhi Leonard, one-half of their superstar tandem, is out. Leonard has only played in two games due to recurring knee stiffness as he’s trying to return from an ACL injury suffered in the 2021 playoffs a year-and-a-half ago. He has not seen the court in two weeks and there is no timetable for his return.

Paul George keeps rolling along at age 32, averaging 22.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. He’s only shooting 44% from the field and 32% on 3’s, however. Marcus Morris, Sr, age 33, is second in scoring at 14.8 ppg on 53% from the field and 38% on 3’s. After George and Morris the Clippers have six players averaging between 9-12 points per game. They are a pretty balanced scoring team, but they’re horrible offensively, averaging just 101 ppg. In fact, they are last in scoring by a wide margin - the next worst team is averaging 107 ppg.

C Ivica Zubec, 7’0”, 240, is averaging 10 points, 11.6 boards, and 2.8 blocks in just under 30 minutes. PG Reggie Jackson, 32, is averaging 10 points and 4.2 assists in 30 minutes.

The Clippers are pretty good on 2-point shots, but they’re 28th in 3-point percentage (31%). They don’t draw many fouls, ranking 28th in free throw attempts per play. They miss a lot of 3’s, don’t get many points at the stripe, and are also 27th at offensive rebound percentage so they don’t get second chance points. They’re 27th in assists per possession so they play a lot of one-on-one. They have a higher turnover percentage than any team. Between the excessive turnovers, the low 3-point percentage, and the lack of free throws the Clippers are in a world of hurt offensively. They average 8.4 ppg less than the Pistons, who the Cavs just held to 88 points.

Defensively they’re very good, ranking 3rd in opponent points per game at 106.3. They’re average at preventing points in the paint and they avoid fouling, ranking 1st in limiting opponents’ free throws. They’re excellent at blocking shots but just average at steals.

The Clippers are 3rd in opponents’ 3-point percentage so they defend the perimeter better than the paint. They’re 2nd in opponents’ effective field goal percentage. As bad as they are offensively they’re almost as good defensively. This should be a low scoring game.

John Hollinger thinks the Clippers are the deepest team in the league but only having two stars will hurt them in the playoffs. He predicted 54 wins, but that was probably based on Leonard being fully recovered from his ACL, which appears not to be the case.

Also out is Luke Kennard, shooting 50% from the field and 47% on 3’s in 23 minutes per game. Not having Leonard and Kennard is putting a big hole in their offense.
 
I was thinking that this was a schedule loss, but given whom they are missing, and that they are ALSO on the second night of a back-to-back, I’m a little more hopeful. Which puts me at greater risk for disappointment, unfortunately.
 
Wall is their 3rd leading scorer and averages 22 minutes per game with 12.8 points and 4.9 assists while shooting over 47%. Jackson averages 29 minutes per game. Their starting shooting guard, Luke Kennard, is out along with their starting small forward, Kawhi Leonard. They are really banged up for this early in the season.

If Jackson can't go then Terrence Mann, a 6'5", 215 pound shooting guard, will probably start at the point. He's been averaging 16 minutes a game as the backup shooting guard.

The Clippers could be going with a very old lineup tonight. George is 32, Nick Batum and Marcus Morris Sr are 33. Robert Covington is 31. If nothing else they will be very experienced. With all the injuries they are going to have a very thin bench. We may get a Moses Brown sighting.
 
Down to rest one of the guards, as long as Neto is good to play. Maybe give Lopez, Okoro, and Stevens some 1st half minutes as well.
 
Assuming we're full strength, we'll win by 10-20. It depends upon our 3 point shooting. I expect a lot of bench minutes. Love and Cedi will each get at least 20 minutes, perhaps 25 or more. The starters played long minutes last night and the bench played less. Again, we will see a lot of Lopez vs Zubat perhaps 20 minutes.

Mobley and Allen didn't play long minutes last night, about 30 each. They'll get 30 each again. Okoro didn't play much, but he'll get a lot of play I think--he's just the kind to abuse their elderly backcourt and wings. Neto will probably get minutes to give Garland a blow.

Even if our 3-pointers aren't falling, they can't guard Mobley and Allen together. Nor can they guard either Garland or Donovan. Either guard can get 30 points tonight on drives and short jumpers.

I expect a close game in the first half, unless our 3-pointers are falling. Then fugedaboutit. In either case, we'll finish them in the 2nd half.
 

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