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Game Thread | Game #12 | Cavs @ Warriors | Nov. 11, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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Hoping to break their first losing streak of the season before returning home, the Cavs take on the Warriors who are off to a slow start with a 4-7 record. However, the Dubs are 4-1 at home, which makes them 0-6 on the road.

Their four wins, all at home, have come against 3-6 Sacramento (by 3 and 5 points), 4-7 Miami (by 13), and the 2-8 LA Clippers (by 14). So the best team the W’s have beaten is probably Miami.

Besides being at home the W’s will have the rest advantage as they haven’t played since Monday while the Cavs played Wednesday. Three days off and 4-1 at home - the Warriors will be tough. They are also healthy with the exception of 38-year-old Andre Iguodala.

Like the Cavs, their last game was against Sacramento. They beat the Kings 116-113. Steph Curry carried them on his back with 47 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists in 38 minutes.

Curry, still awesome at age 34, leads the Dubs with 32.6 points per game, shooting 51% from the field and 43% from deep. He chips in 7.1 rebounds and 6.9 assists as he continues his march to the HOF.

Andrew Wiggins, the former Cavs’ #1 pick who was traded for Kevin Love, is having a good year at 18.2 ppg and 6.1 rebounds. He’s hitting 48% overall and 40% on 3’s. He and Curry combine for 50 points out of the 117.3 the team averages.

Klay Thompson, 32, having suffered two major leg injuries in recent years, is getting 28 minutes per game and averaging 15.1 points. He’s not the Klay he used to be, however, shooting only 36% from the field and 33% from deep - about 10% lower than his career averages.

Draymond Green, also 32, is still doing his thing with a line of 9.1/6.1/5.6 and great defense. Green is hitting 61% of his shots but only 30% of his 3’s. He’s a great passer but turns the ball over a ton, ranking in the 2nd percentile at his position, possibly because he handles the ball so much.

Their “big” man is Kevon Looney at 6’9”. Looney only plays 23 minutes and averages 6.4 points and 6.6 rebounds.

Jordan Poole comes off the bench but is third in minutes behind Curry and Wiggins so he’s more like a starter. He averages 15.2 points but his shooting percentages are poor; 40.6% and 30.1%.

James Wiseman, 7’0”, averages just 14 minutes a game in relief of Looney and veteran journeyman JaMychal Green, 6’9”, averages 17 minutes.

For this preview I decided to use cleaningtheglass.com, whose statistics don’t include garbage time. They rank the W’s 19th in point differential (the Cavs are #2). Offensively the W’s rank 12th and defensively 25th out of 30. Last year they were 2nd defensively. They’re allowing about 8 more points per game than last year. This could be another high scoring game similar to the 127-120 Cavs’ loss to the Kings.

The Warriors are outstanding shooters, ranking 4th in eFG, but what knocks down their scoring is turnovers, where they rank 25th. It adds up to an above average but not great offensive team that is highly dependent on four players (Curry, Wiggins, Thompson, Poole). Those four combine to score 81 of the team’s 117 points per game. Curry is in the top 1% of the league in offensive efficiency (142 points per 100 shot attempts).

In terms of shooting frequency, the W’s are dead last in shot attempts at the rim, 17th in short mid-range shots, 10th in long mid-range shots, and 2nd in 3-point attempts per game, shooting from deep on 42.5% of their shots. Defending them is all about the 3-point line.

In terms of accuracy the W’s are 13th in 3-point accuracy at 37.0% - slightly above average. Only 19% of their 3’s are shot from the corner versus 25% by the league, and they are near the bottom in accuracy on the corner 3’s.

Defensively the W’s allow 115 points per game - only five teams are worse. They are 19th in eFG but what pulls down their scoring average is they are last in opponents’ free throw rate at 26.6 per game. They hack you all night long.

They don’t defend the rim well (24th) or the mid-range (27th). Not surprising as they have only one starter above 6’7” and that’s Looney at 6’9”. They’re average defending 3’s (15th).

On paper the Cavs are clearly the better team with an 8-3 record against the league’s 8th toughest schedule so far. The Dubs are 4-7 against the league’s 24th toughest schedule and all of their wins have come at home against teams with losing records.

But with three days off and playing at home the Dubs will not be an easy out. Curry is capable of scoring 50 if necessary and he got 47 Monday to carry his team over the finish line. I expect LeVert to get that assignment and it will be fun to watch.

Actually, given that Curry is 34 years old the best bet would be to rotate LeVert, Garland, and Mitchell so he always has a fresh body defending him. Deny the pass and make him work hard just to get the ball, then go at him on defense, doubling and trapping occasionally. Never let him rest except on offense when a teammate has the ball. Wear him down so his 3’s start rimming out in the 4th quarter.

After the loss to the Kings Bickerstaff was clearly angry. He berated the Cavs’ for “arrogant basketball”, coming out lackadaisical on defense, ignoring the game plan and the opponents’ individual tendencies, and allowing them to play “freely”. So it will be interesting to see if the Cavs come out tonight with more defensive intensity in the first quarter. The Cavs rank 19th in the NBA in first quarter scoring defense and JBB wants that to change - immediately.
 
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Steph and Klay might drop 50. Garland better get his head out of his ass and levert stop with the stupid mid range shots for us to win.
 
Looking a little closer at Draymond Green's numbers, it appears Father Time is making a few inroads into his talents as well.

CTG considers him a "big" although I'm not sure why since he's only 6'6". But his block percentage this year is only 1.0%, putting him in the 18th percentile. In his prime he was around 2.0% and in the 64th percentile.

His steal percentage was consistently in the 91-99 percentile for bigs every year since his second season, but this year he's only in the 72nd percentile - still above average but no longer elite.

His offensive rebounding is in the 5th percentile for bigs at 2.5% which is the lowest of his career except for one season. It was in the 4-5% range in his first five years.

His offensive usage rate is down to 41% whereas in past years it's been in the 60-70% range. He is assisted on 87% of his buckets - he doesn't have the ability to create his own shot. In 10 games he's taken 70 shots.

Green is only hitting 58.8% of his free throws - a career low. Two years ago he was at 79%.

Thompson and Green are still NBA players at age 32, but both are showing signs of wear and tear around the edges. Green especially is having problems because he can't create his own shot and is making only 30% of his 3's and under 60% of his free throws, not that he gets fouled much. His numbers for blocks, steals, and offensive rebounds are also down.

If Looney guards Allen I assume Green will guard Mobley. The undersized and aging veteran who knows all the dirty tricks against the much taller, more athletic, and younger neophyte. That will be an interesting matchup as Green grabs, pushes, and holds Mobley to try and keep him away from the rim.

Curry, however, is appears to be better than ever.
 
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Steph and Klay might drop 50. Garland better get his head out of his ass and levert stop with the stupid mid range shots for us to win.
Last year LeVert made 44% of his short mid-range shots. The year before was 43%. This year he's at 28%. However, even if he gets back to his norm of 44% - that's not good. We won't win hitting 44% of our 2-point shots.

The last two years Caris is shooting 62-63% at the rim, which is consistent with his career. This year he's at 50%. IMO Caris should try to get to the rim as much as possible since he's shooting almost 20% higher than on mid-range shots for his career. Get the layup or draw a foul. Even at his best the short pull-up jumper only goes down 44% of the time.

Garland was sick on Wednesday so the "get his head out of his ass" remark was uncalled for. If anybody had his head up his ass it was Bickerstaff for playing him 34 minutes when he was clearly not OK and was 1-for-9 with 6 turnovers. Has JBB lost that much confidence in Neto? What about moving Mitchell to the 1, LeVert to the 2, and giving Wade or Cedi more minutes?

We've seen Garland suck in the first half and then get hot in the second, so maybe that's what JBB was expecting.
 
Cavs normally play in “aw shucks” and “deer in headlight” mode whenever they face Bron or Curry. Cavs should win this game if they can stop with the silly turnovers and lock in for 48 minutes.
With last year's team, guaranteed L. Mitchell is a dog, so they got a shot.
 
It seems really odd to me that the defending NBA champions would drop so far the next season. I ain't buying it, yet. Expect to have a big struggle to break the losing streak tonight.
 
Question about urging more Lavert forays to the rim is whether or not he
turns it over or forces futile attempts to the degree that this tactic is more a down
that up.
 
It seems really odd to me that the defending NBA champions would drop so far the next season. I ain't buying it, yet. Expect to have a big struggle to break the losing streak tonight.
Green and Poole's numbers are significantly worse than last year and the W's also lost some useful players.

Key additions: SG Donte DiVincenzo, PF JaMychal Green

Key subtractions: SF Otto Porter Jr., SG Gary Payton II, C Nemanja Bjelica, SG Damion Lee, PF Juan Toscano-Anderson


DiVincenzo has been hurt but should return tonight.

It's only 11 games but Klay Thompson's shooting percentages have dropped from last year by 43% to 36% from the field and 38.5% to 32.6% on 3's. Even his free throw percentage is down from 90% to 80%. His turnovers are up and his blocks, steals, assists, and rebounds are all down from last year.

Jordan Pooles' overall shooting percentage is down 4% and his 3-point shooting is down 6%. His free throw shooting is down from 92% to 80%. His rebounding is less than half of what it was last year and his turnovers are up. Shooting 40% overall and 30% on 3's with the highest turnover rate of his career he hasn't been a very good player. His salary increases from about $4 million this year to $29 million next year.
 
It seems really odd to me that the defending NBA champions would drop so far the next season. I ain't buying it, yet.

The Warriors are cooked in my opinion. Their payroll is $189 million. The salary cap is $134 million with the tax level at $162 million so they are paying a tax. Next year they are committed to $214 million for 12 players, including Thompson and Green, who are showing their age and clearly in decline. Thompson will get $43 million next year. He's playing 28 minutes a game and shooting 36%.

Poole will average $31 million for the next four years. That might have been a mistake.

The engine that drives the train is 34 years old. He will make $52 million, $56 million, and $59 million the next three years. They better hope he can keep playing at this level.

As for this year they are 4-7 overall, 0-6 on the road, against the 7th easiest schedule and with no significant injuries - so far.
 
Curry is going to cook us. Can’t wait for JBB to throw Okoro, his idea of a Steph stopper, our there for most of the game.
 
Need Mobley to play ball denial on Draymond. IF you can shut down his playmaking Curry has to do too much and will wear down.

Gonna get extra effort from this team despite only Klove remaining
 
We haven't beaten these assholes since Game 4 of the '17 Finals. Does anybody care to tally how many consecutive losses that is?

Shit is beyond embarrassing at this point. End it tonight, please.
 
We haven't beaten these assholes since Game 4 of the '17 Finals. Does anybody care to tally how many consecutive losses that is?

Shit is beyond embarrassing at this point. End it tonight, please.
It’s not embarrassing when you remember who and how good the Warriors are! These guys have been an well oiled machine for the past 8 years and we have been (without LBJ) trash until last year!
 

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