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Game Thread | Game #19 | Cavs @ Bucks | Nov. 25, 2022

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Wham with the Right Hand

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I hope all you Cavs fans had a great Thanksgiving, got your fill of turkey and football, and are ready to get back to watching the only winning pro franchise in town at the moment.

Fresh off a four-game winning streak at home the Cavs leave the leftovers in the frig and hit the road for a rematch against the 12-5 Milwaukee Bucks, who handed the Cavs their worst loss of the season nine days ago by a 113-98 score in the same venue. The Cavs will be looking for some payback, or at least to be more competitive.

The Cavs trailed at halftime 61-60 in that game, then came out malfunctioning to start the 3rd quarter and were outscored 20-6 in the first six minutes, giving the Bucks a 15-point lead. The teams traded points the rest of the way. The game was even except for the first six minutes of the third quarter. All it takes is one lapse to get you beat against a team like this.

Both teams will be stronger on paper this time around. The Cavaliers will have some much needed help up front with Allen and Wade back in the lineup. They were out last week. Also, the Cavs made a change in the starting lineup, replacing Caris LeVert, who had 2 points in 20 minutes, with Lamar Stevens. Since then the Cavs are 4-0.

So the Cavs will present more physicality this time around with Allen and Wade back and Stevens getting more minutes. LeVert and Kevin Love are out.

The Bucks get starting guards JRue Holiday and Grayson Allen back. Holiday averages 18.2 points, 7.7 assists, and is one of the league’s elite defensive players. Allen, who has a reputation as the league’s dirtiest player, is averaging 10.5 points and shooting 42% on 3’s.

Getting Jarrett Allen back should be huge because with Allen out Brook Lopez went off for 29 points last week. He was 7-for-9 on 3’s. The 7-footer is hitting 40% of his 3’s this season and burned the Cavs repeatedly on the pick-and-pop where the Cavs’ big man retreated to stay in front of the ball handler while the Cavs’ guard chased the ball, leaving Lopez alone for uncontested 3’s. They need a different approach this time.

Dean Wade hopefully can stay in front of Giannis when Mobley is resting. Giannis had a tough game against the Cavs last week, going 6-for-18 from the field and 4-for-11 from the foul line. He missed both his 3-point shots and is hitting just 21% for the season, so the key is to stay in front of him and let him take the 3. Giannis is hitting just 58% of his free throws so fouling him is always a good option.

Jordan Nwora came off the bench against the Cavs to score 21 points in just 10 shots. He was 5-for-9 from deep and got fouled shooting three times. Between Lopez and Nwora they hit 12 of the Bucks 16 threes.

Nwora’s next highest scoring game was 12, so he had by far his best game of the year against the Cavs. In the three games since he has scored a total of 14 points.

The first thing the Cavs need to do is make sure Lopez and Nwora don’t kill them on 3’s this time around. They need to come out strong each quarter and avoid any 20-6 runs by the Bucks. They need more help from their bench. Last game Love had 5 points, Cedi 4, and Okoro 4.

The Bucks will be better this time with the additions of Holiday and Grayson Allen. The Cavs get Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade back. This should be a heck of a game.

When these teams played last week the Cavs were playing the fifth game of a west coast road trip, didn't have Allen and Wade, and had lost four in a row. This time they’ve been home for over a week, are on a winning streak with a different starting lineup, and are better rested. Both teams have had one day off.

On Wednesday the Bucks lost at home to the Chicago Bulls, who came in 7-10. The Bucks have shown some weakness lately, losing five of their last eight games, although the absence of Allen and Holiday contributed to that. Since Holiday returned they are 1-2, losing to Chicago and Philly. Holiday is listed as a game time decision so he might miss this one.

The Bucks are average offensively, ranking 16th in points per game. Despite Giannis being mostly a 2-point shooter they’re mainly a 3-point team, ranking 7th in percentage of points on 3’s. They are 7th in 3-point attempts per play but only 22nd in 3-point percentage. They’re 5th in offensive rebound percentage, perhaps due to missing a lot of 3’s but also due to Lopez and Giannis crashing the glass. Overall they are 22nd in effective field goal percentage, so they miss shots.

Defense is where they win games. The Bucks rank 4th in opponents’ points per game at 107.5 (the Cavs are right behind at 107.6). This should be a low scoring game. The Bucks lead the NBA defensively in effective field goal percentage and defensive rebound percentage. They’re the hardest team to make a bucket against and the hardest to get an offensive rebound. They also are first at preventing points in the paint. However, they are average at defending the 3-point shot.

The Bulls beat the Bucks on Wednesday with offense. They shot 49.4% overall and 43% on 3’s, outscoring the Bucks by 18 points on 3-point shots in a five-point win. They scored 118 points against a team that averages 107. The Cavs may need to have a good game from outside if they want to knock off the Bucks in their house. But it starts with not letting Lopez and Nwora have their best games of the year on 3-point shooting like last week.
 
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Absolutely. If they can't win this game, I'm ready for full tank mode and let's get into the hunt for Victor W.
If we trade Garland, Mitchell, Allen, and Mobley to four different teams for a 2023 first round pick (plus some future picks) we won't win another game this year and will end up with a top three pick of our own plus four more firsts next year. If the ping pong balls are friendly we end up with Victor, four more first round picks, plus enough cap space to sign three max players. We go 82-0 for the next 10 years.

Pretty simple, actually.
 
Fedor:

Cleveland Cavaliers star guard Donovan Mitchell didn’t hesitate when the question was posed.

How are you different from the team that lost to Milwaukee last week?

Mitchell quickly glanced to his right and pointed at All-Star center Jarrett Allen, who did not play that fateful night because of a non-COVID-related illness and gimpy ankle.

“We got this guy back,” Mitchell said with a bright smile.

“We’re a different team mentally coming into Milwaukee, but also understanding that we have room to improve as well,” Mitchell said. “I think there’s a confidence about us. There’s a swagger we have. This will be a great test to see where we are at, especially when you just played them, and they are fresh on your mind.”

Stevens is at the center of the turnaround.

“Lamar is leading it, to be honest with you,” Garland said of the increased physicality. “He’s setting that tone for us on the defensive end, and I think it’s just wearing off on everybody else.”
 
I hop e we start Wade. Will be much harder for them to guard us. With Stevens it becomes sketchy because of their scheme and Giannis.
 
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The Bucks are averaging 114.7 points per game at home and 105.7 away, a difference of 9.0 points.

With Jrue Holiday back to harass Garland or Mitchell the Bucks will be very tough to beat. They are 9-2 at home, losing to Atlanta with Holiday out and to Chicago two nights ago.
 

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