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The Cavaliers take their talents to South Beach for a double-header against the Heat with a game tonight, a day to bag some rays, and a rematch Friday. The Heat are 35-31 on what is looking to be a disappointing season. The Athletic has them 12th in their latest Power Rankings. The Cavs are 9th.
The Heat have shown flashes here and there, but for the most part, they’ve been a disappointment. They’re one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league after being one of the best last season, and it’s mostly because they just can’t hit open 3s. It’s a stunning turnaround and part of the reason they’re barely over .500.
They are well over .500 at home, however, with a record of 21-12. They have lost six of their last nine games and are 7th place, two games behind Brooklyn to avoid the play-in.
These teams played in Cleveland on Nov. 20 with the Cavs rolling to an easy 113-87 win. The Heat were without Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Victor Oladipo. That won’t be the case this time, although Kyle Lowry, their starting point guard, is out.
The second game in Cleveland was a 100-97 Cavs’ loss, as they shot just 11-for-40 on 3’s while Miami was 14-for-31. Caleb Martin was 7-for-8 with 18 points and 10 rebounds. Butler, Adebayo, and Herro were back. The Cavs managed only 18 points in the 4th quarter and made some critical turnovers late. Allen was a -17 as Bam had 7 offensive rebounds. Mitchell was 6-for-17 and Cedi and Wade combined for 5 points in 28 minutes.
Both teams should have the same players tonight except Lowry is out (he only had 6 points in 24 minutes) and Kevin Love is a game time decision.
The Heat are the lowest scoring team in the NBA by far at 108.5 points per game. Houston is the next lowest at 110.3. The Cavs are allowing 106.6 points per game; next best is Miami at 109.1. So this will be the lowest scoring team versus the team with the best scoring defense. If statistics mean anything the Heat will be hard pressed to score 100. That being said, in their last three games, all at home, the Heat scored 117, 120, and 130 points.
The Heat rank near the bottom in most offensive categories. They’re 25th in effective field goal percentage, 21st in points in the paint, 28th in fast break points, and 23rd in assists. They throw up a lot of 3’s (9th in 3-point frequency) but are bad at making them (27th). That being said, they were 16-for-29 against Atlanta Monday, and I’m sure they’ll hit at least 50% tonight. They hit 45% against us in January.
The Heat are best at the mid-range game, where Jimmy Butler excels, ranking 8th and 9th in mid-range frequency and accuracy. They don’t attack the rim often (27th) or well (24th).
The Heat are much better defensively, ranking 2nd in opponents’ points per game at 109.1. So this game will feature the two best teams in the NBA in scoring defense. This could be another 100-97 game or something similar. But the Heat have allowed 119, 122, and 128 points in three of their last four games, so recently they’ve been scoring more and allowing more points than normal.
Opponents shoot a ton of 3’s against Miami (second most) and hit them at an above average rate. The Heat defend the paint well (2nd in points allowed per game) and they don’t foul (5th fewest free throws allowed). They are ball hawks (2nd in steals per possession) and great on the defensive glass (2nd in rebound percentage). But they are just 25th in effective field goal percentage, so if you can avoid the turnover and get the shot up there’s a good chance for a bucket. They are only 29th in block percentage. I suspect they rank so high in points in the paint because teams prefer to shoot 3’s.
I would advise the Cavs to take it inside. The Heat are a small team. Bam Adebayo is 6’9”, although he plays a lot bigger. The other starters on Monday were Butler (6’7”), Herro (6’5”), Max Strus (6’5”), and Gabe Vincent (6’3”).
I’m just not confident in the Cavs’ 3-point shooting recently and against a team of wings and guards that ranks 29th in shot block percentage it makes sense to attack the rim relentlessly or dump it in to the low post and let Allen and Mobley go to work. I suspect when that happens the defense collapses which results in steals, so the key is to get the shot off quick or draw the double-team and kick it out for an uncontested 3.
The Miami bench consists of Victor Oladipo (6’4”), Kevin Love (6’8”), Duncan Robinson (6’7”) and Caleb Martin (6’5”). They are all in on small ball.
The Heat play more zone defense than anybody and the Cavs had a day off yesterday so hopefully they put in some practice in breaking down a zone. I’m sure the zone is a major factor in Heat opponents taking so many 3’s and the Heat ranking 5th in points allowed in the paint despite lacking height. They force you to shoot from deep and hope you have a bad night. The zone also helps them dominate the defensive glass despite no real big man.
The Cavs going 11-for-40 from deep last game (27.5%) was the biggest factor in a 3-point loss. Donovan Mitchell was the biggest offender at 3-for-13.
The Heat have balanced scoring with Butler (22 points), Adebayo (21 points, 10 rebounds), and Herro (20 points) leading the way. Lowry and Strus average 12 points while Oladipo, Martin, and Vincent are in the 9-10 point range. The best 3-point shooter is Martin at 38%. The Heat as a team are shooting just 34.6% on 3’s at home.
Kevin Love is averaging 7.5 points and 7.3 rebounds on 36.5% overall and 25.8% on 3’s. He started six games and the Heat are 2-4 in Love’s starts. He is listed as a game time decision.
The Heat are coming off two home games in which they beat the 32-33 Hawks by 2 and 8 points. The Heat have been average for the season and although they now have Butler, Herro, and Oladipo back, they are still struggling to beat an average team at home. The Cavs are the better team and they have a huge height advantage on the glass and they should get some offensive rebounds.
The Heat are 24th in accuracy at the rim and with Mobley and Allen they will probably be putting up a lot of 3’s. Since they are only 27th in 3-point accuracy the Cavs should force a lot of misses if they keep switching and contest well. What could get the Cavs beat is if they miss a lot of 3’s against the zone and commit too many turnovers. They need Allen to keep Adebayo from getting seven offensive boards this time and Mitchell can’t miss 10 of 13 from deep.
Key defensive matchups for the Cavs will be Allen vs. Bam, Mobley vs. Butler, and Okoro/Stevens/Wade vs. Herro. The Cavs need to keep Caleb Martin from going 7-for-8 this time.
The Heat have shown flashes here and there, but for the most part, they’ve been a disappointment. They’re one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league after being one of the best last season, and it’s mostly because they just can’t hit open 3s. It’s a stunning turnaround and part of the reason they’re barely over .500.
They are well over .500 at home, however, with a record of 21-12. They have lost six of their last nine games and are 7th place, two games behind Brooklyn to avoid the play-in.
These teams played in Cleveland on Nov. 20 with the Cavs rolling to an easy 113-87 win. The Heat were without Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Victor Oladipo. That won’t be the case this time, although Kyle Lowry, their starting point guard, is out.
The second game in Cleveland was a 100-97 Cavs’ loss, as they shot just 11-for-40 on 3’s while Miami was 14-for-31. Caleb Martin was 7-for-8 with 18 points and 10 rebounds. Butler, Adebayo, and Herro were back. The Cavs managed only 18 points in the 4th quarter and made some critical turnovers late. Allen was a -17 as Bam had 7 offensive rebounds. Mitchell was 6-for-17 and Cedi and Wade combined for 5 points in 28 minutes.
Both teams should have the same players tonight except Lowry is out (he only had 6 points in 24 minutes) and Kevin Love is a game time decision.
The Heat are the lowest scoring team in the NBA by far at 108.5 points per game. Houston is the next lowest at 110.3. The Cavs are allowing 106.6 points per game; next best is Miami at 109.1. So this will be the lowest scoring team versus the team with the best scoring defense. If statistics mean anything the Heat will be hard pressed to score 100. That being said, in their last three games, all at home, the Heat scored 117, 120, and 130 points.
The Heat rank near the bottom in most offensive categories. They’re 25th in effective field goal percentage, 21st in points in the paint, 28th in fast break points, and 23rd in assists. They throw up a lot of 3’s (9th in 3-point frequency) but are bad at making them (27th). That being said, they were 16-for-29 against Atlanta Monday, and I’m sure they’ll hit at least 50% tonight. They hit 45% against us in January.
The Heat are best at the mid-range game, where Jimmy Butler excels, ranking 8th and 9th in mid-range frequency and accuracy. They don’t attack the rim often (27th) or well (24th).
The Heat are much better defensively, ranking 2nd in opponents’ points per game at 109.1. So this game will feature the two best teams in the NBA in scoring defense. This could be another 100-97 game or something similar. But the Heat have allowed 119, 122, and 128 points in three of their last four games, so recently they’ve been scoring more and allowing more points than normal.
Opponents shoot a ton of 3’s against Miami (second most) and hit them at an above average rate. The Heat defend the paint well (2nd in points allowed per game) and they don’t foul (5th fewest free throws allowed). They are ball hawks (2nd in steals per possession) and great on the defensive glass (2nd in rebound percentage). But they are just 25th in effective field goal percentage, so if you can avoid the turnover and get the shot up there’s a good chance for a bucket. They are only 29th in block percentage. I suspect they rank so high in points in the paint because teams prefer to shoot 3’s.
I would advise the Cavs to take it inside. The Heat are a small team. Bam Adebayo is 6’9”, although he plays a lot bigger. The other starters on Monday were Butler (6’7”), Herro (6’5”), Max Strus (6’5”), and Gabe Vincent (6’3”).
I’m just not confident in the Cavs’ 3-point shooting recently and against a team of wings and guards that ranks 29th in shot block percentage it makes sense to attack the rim relentlessly or dump it in to the low post and let Allen and Mobley go to work. I suspect when that happens the defense collapses which results in steals, so the key is to get the shot off quick or draw the double-team and kick it out for an uncontested 3.
The Miami bench consists of Victor Oladipo (6’4”), Kevin Love (6’8”), Duncan Robinson (6’7”) and Caleb Martin (6’5”). They are all in on small ball.
The Heat play more zone defense than anybody and the Cavs had a day off yesterday so hopefully they put in some practice in breaking down a zone. I’m sure the zone is a major factor in Heat opponents taking so many 3’s and the Heat ranking 5th in points allowed in the paint despite lacking height. They force you to shoot from deep and hope you have a bad night. The zone also helps them dominate the defensive glass despite no real big man.
The Cavs going 11-for-40 from deep last game (27.5%) was the biggest factor in a 3-point loss. Donovan Mitchell was the biggest offender at 3-for-13.
The Heat have balanced scoring with Butler (22 points), Adebayo (21 points, 10 rebounds), and Herro (20 points) leading the way. Lowry and Strus average 12 points while Oladipo, Martin, and Vincent are in the 9-10 point range. The best 3-point shooter is Martin at 38%. The Heat as a team are shooting just 34.6% on 3’s at home.
Kevin Love is averaging 7.5 points and 7.3 rebounds on 36.5% overall and 25.8% on 3’s. He started six games and the Heat are 2-4 in Love’s starts. He is listed as a game time decision.
The Heat are coming off two home games in which they beat the 32-33 Hawks by 2 and 8 points. The Heat have been average for the season and although they now have Butler, Herro, and Oladipo back, they are still struggling to beat an average team at home. The Cavs are the better team and they have a huge height advantage on the glass and they should get some offensive rebounds.
The Heat are 24th in accuracy at the rim and with Mobley and Allen they will probably be putting up a lot of 3’s. Since they are only 27th in 3-point accuracy the Cavs should force a lot of misses if they keep switching and contest well. What could get the Cavs beat is if they miss a lot of 3’s against the zone and commit too many turnovers. They need Allen to keep Adebayo from getting seven offensive boards this time and Mitchell can’t miss 10 of 13 from deep.
Key defensive matchups for the Cavs will be Allen vs. Bam, Mobley vs. Butler, and Okoro/Stevens/Wade vs. Herro. The Cavs need to keep Caleb Martin from going 7-for-8 this time.
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